A Path-Space Formulation of Prediction in World Models: From a Single Action to Prediction, Planning, and Irreversibility

We propose a path-space formulation of prediction in AI world models. Rather than sequences of one-step conditional distributions, we argue that a world model implicitly defines a probability measure over future trajectories. In the local regime where latent dynamics admit an effective Markovian description, this path measure takes the Onsager-Machlup form. Within this framework, prediction (most probable trajectory), planning (constrained optimization), and uncertainty (fluctuations) emerge as operations on a single action functional. We decompose the latent dynamics into reversible and irreversible components and introduce operational measures of entropy production from model rollouts. In controlled small-scale attention-based models, we find that attention asymmetry is acquired during training in proportion to the irreversibility of the data. Symmetrizing the learned attention suppresses entropy production and selectively degrades long-horizon prediction of irreversible dynamics while preserving relaxational prediction. These results suggest that irreversibility may serve as a computational resource for predictive world models. More generally, the fundamental predictive object is a distribution over future paths rather than states.

Thermodynamic Irreversibility of Training Algorithms

The training algorithms for AI systems all introduce far-from-equilibrium dynamical processes, and understanding the irreversibility of these algorithms is a fundamental step towards understanding the learning dynamics of modern AI systems. In this work, we establish a general framework for defining and analyzing the irreversibility of training algorithms. We show that four different ways to characterize the irreversibility of dynamical processes are equivalent to leading order in the step size $η$: numerical backward error $φ_{\rm DE}$, time-renormalized correction $φ_{\rm TR}$, microscopic time reversal asymmetry $φ_{\rm TA}$, and the (regularized) stochastic-thermodynamic entropy production $φ_{\rm ST}$. The irreversibility gives rise to a time-reversal-symmetry-breaking emergent force that generically breaks non-isometric continuous reparametrization symmetries, preserves orthogonal symmetries, and leads to a universal preference for those learning trajectories that minimize the entropy production rate.