The Easy Trap: Why LLMs Underestimate Misconception-Driven Difficulty

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for estimating item difficulty in educational assessment. However, it remains unclear whether such estimates reflect how learners actually experience difficulty. This study investigates the alignment between LLM-generated difficulty ratings and empirical student performance on basic mathematics tasks. Four widely used LLM-based systems generated difficulty ratings on a 1-100 scale for 32 arithmetic items across multiple runs (N = 640 ratings). These were compared with empirical difficulty derived from responses of 770 Indonesian undergraduates using Classical Test Theory (CTT) and Item Response Theory (2PL). Results show moderate rank correlations (Spearman's rho = 0.52-0.70), indicating that LLMs capture coarse ordering of item difficulty. However, substantial and systematic misalignment emerges in fraction items. Several items consistently rated as easy by LLMs were among the most difficult for students, such as an item with only 34.16% correct for 100 : 1/2. We argue that LLMs approximate curricular difficulty, or what should be easy based on instructional sequencing, rather than cognitive difficulty driven by learner misconceptions. This leads to systematic underestimation of misconception-driven items, a phenomenon we term the Easy Trap. These findings highlight a critical limitation of LLM-based difficulty estimation and suggest that relying on such estimates without empirical grounding may introduce bias in assessment design and adaptive systems.

Latent Confidence Alignment for LLM Self-Assessment

Confidence calibration in large language models (LLMs) is commonly evaluated by comparing predicted confidence with observed accuracy. However, such approaches do not model item difficulty, making it difficult to interpret discrepancies and to determine whether model confidence reflects genuine self-assessment or is merely a byproduct of the response generation process. To address this, we adopt a Rasch model-based latent ability framework and a metacognitive perspective, and propose Latent Confidence Alignment Error (LCAE) to measure the consistency between model self-assessment and the latent error probability implied by model ability and item difficulty. We further incorporate item difficulty as an external signal with a reasoning mechanism. Experiments on a medical-domain dataset with 20 models show that the proposed approach improves self-assessment quality without affecting model ability, and reveals an association between reliability and inference cost.