Emotion recognition from text keeps improving on benchmarks, yet whether an accuracy ceiling has been reached is seldom asked with discipline. Our aim is not to pin this ceiling to a single number, but to quantify how far it depends on finite annotation, estimator choice, annotation noise, and the evaluation protocol, and thereby to discipline how confidently saturation can be claimed. We propose Bias-corrected Affective Ceiling Estimation (BACE), an analysis framework that estimates a bias-corrected ceiling, separates irreducible from reducible error, and disciplines the resulting claims. An anchored Dirichlet-mixture empirical Bayes estimator, bracketed between plug-in and NSB, recovers the human-consensus distribution; an annotator split, a noise deconvolution, and a fixed claim gate then attribute error without circularity. Methodologically, unconstrained point estimates place reachability anywhere from 0.38 to 1.03, so saturation cannot be decided by any single estimator. Substantively, the only assertion passing the claim gate is that at least about 33% of a representative classifier's error on GoEmotions is irreducible, with the same pattern recurring on offensiveness and irony.
Human label variation in natural language inference is increasingly treated as signal rather than noise, but how much of it formal semantic structure explains has not been measured directly. We measure it on the 3,113 SNLI and MNLI items of ChaosNLI, using a rule-based operator and monotonicity tagger validated against MED (0.883 agreement at the edit site, 0.807 on the sentence-level summary our analyses consume), three preregistered analysis blocks, and full reporting of negative results. Three bounds emerge. First, a group-level boundary: hypotheses that are not purely upward monotone show reliably higher label entropy (Cliff's delta = -0.284), and rank-based tests defend the effect against operator-presence and length reductions, though a bounded-outcome sensitivity check weakens the regression form of the length defense. Second, an item-level ceiling: the same formal profiles explain only 3.3 to 3.6 percent of entropy variance and reach a median-split AUC of 0.606, too weak to identify high-disagreement items. Third, composition invariance: across the boundary, three high-powered preregistered contrasts on validated error shares and explanation-type shares (VariErr, LiTEx) all return null results. In this sample, formal semantic structure shifts how much annotators disagree by a small amount and does not detectably change what they disagree about. ChaosNLI-S/M consists of items selected for low original agreement, and every claim is conditioned on that scope. All analyses were preregistered in a version-controlled research log, whose audit trail, including one corrected interpretation rule, the paper discloses.
Enthymemes, arguments with unstated premises or conclusions, are pervasive in persuasive discourse, yet their annotation remains notoriously subjective. We present a resource of 1,482 tweets from politically controversial discourse, annotated by five annotators for the presence of enthymemes and their argument structure, designed to study label variation. We first revisit the definition of enthymemes and propose annotation guidelines anchored in Walton's argumentation schemes, offering a structured and constrained approach that nonetheless preserves room for the interpretive nature of the task. This contrasts with past resources, which tend to eliminate disagreement, obscuring its sources and preventing investigation of its potential benefits for model performance. We further propose a complexity analysis of the task, identifying where annotation imposes high cognitive load and may give rise to inconsistent annotation. Our preliminary experiments show that models trained on annotator disagreement outperform models trained on hard majority-vote labels. We close by reflecting on how structural openness in enthymeme definitions and guidelines enables the study of variation in subjective inferential processes for future resources and downstream NLP applications concerned with human inference.