Matthew Kahn, Milan Arjel, Nirmala Adhikari +2cs.LG stat.AP
Two free satellite signals carry real information about glacial-lake outburst risk in the Nepal Himalaya: radar interferometry sees a moraine dam slowly sagging, and satellite weather marks the weeks when a primed lake is under stress. A companion feasibility study found that deformation indicates which lake is destabilizing and weather indicates when it is at risk, but proposed no predictive model. To address this gap, we propose and evaluate models that predict which site is susceptible and when a trigger arrives. We test three related hazards on free data alone: large moraine- and ice-dammed bursts, rainfall-triggered landslides, and smaller floods from ponds on and around a glacier. Each hazard gets two questions, never blended. Using 589 dated outbursts from HMAGLOFDB and several thousand catalogued landslides, we match each event against similar but unfailed sites, and hold every model to a strong simple baseline under spatial cross-validation that withholds whole map tiles, so no model succeeds by recognising a trained-on neighbourhood. Antecedent weather times the trigger at ROC 0.73 for big bursts, 0.83 for landslides, and 0.82 for small floods. Terrain ranks susceptibility only in part: scored naively it appears near 0.9, largely because catalogued failures cluster in wetter ranges; matched against comparable nearby sites the honest figures are 0.76, 0.71, and 0.54 (no better than chance). The burst signal holds within single regions, reaching 0.89 in Nepal alone. Five deep-learning models do not decisively beat a simple gradient-boosted baseline. Three score marginally higher on landslides, a hint too small to confirm. For the lake hazards the baseline wins outright, reproduced by a three-rule decision tree on ruggedness and monsoon rainfall. We close with a ranked Nepal watchlist, a prioritisation aid, not a prediction, and note where free data reaches its limits.
Landslide susceptibility prediction is critical for geohazard risk assessment and mitigation. Conventional data-driven paradigm achieves high predictive accuracy but require sufficient conditioning factors and large-scale landslide inventories. However, in practical engineering applications across mountainous and plateau regions, data-scarce conditions are commonly observed, where such data requirements are rarely satisfied, rendering conventional data-driven paradigm inapplicable. To address this issue, we propose a knowledge-data dually driven paradigm for accurate landslide susceptibility prediction under data-scarce conditions. The essential idea behind the proposed novel paradigm is the integration of the geomorphic prior knowledge with scarce landslide data. To validate the proposed paradigm, we first applied it to a data-rich region in central Italy, where a conventional data-driven paradigm trained on the full dataset served as the baseline. By utilizing only 30% of the available landslide data, the proposed paradigm achieved comparable predictive accuracy to the baseline, demonstrating its effectiveness under data-scarce conditions. The paradigm was further evaluated in a genuinely data-scarce environment for application, the Qilian Permafrost Region of the Tibetan Plateau, where it also yielded reliable susceptibility predictions, confirming its applicability under data-scarce conditions.