NVExplain: Explaining Time Series Forecasting with Latent Trajectory Analysis and Structure-Preserving Surrogates

Time series forecasting models are widely used in high-stakes settings, yet their predictions remain difficult to interpret because existing post-hoc methods often ignore temporal dependence and fail to provide horizon-specific explanations. We propose a model-agnostic explainability framework that explains forecasting predictions by attributing each forecast horizon to temporally relevant historical lags. The framework models forecasting as a latent trajectory and introduces semantic flow to quantify how information evolves across time in the model's internal representations. By aggregating semantic flow, it constructs a lag-horizon attribution matrix that captures horizon-resolved temporal influence. To improve explainability, we further generate structure-preserving perturbations and fit sparse local surrogate models, producing human-readable and temporally coherent explanations. We evaluate the method using faithfulness and stability diagnostics across multiple benchmark datasets. Results show that the semantic-flow variant achieves competitive or superior faithfulness compared to standard post-hoc baselines, while being substantially more computationally efficient. Stability analysis further demonstrates that the explanations are robust and identifies regimes where interpretation should be applied with caution.

Adaptive Latent Trajectory Anchoring for Action Segmentation Dataset Condensation

Dataset condensation for action segmentation synthesizes compact, informative representations of long, untrimmed video datasets. The existing approach relies on Variational Autoencoders and an iterative latent optimization; it is computationally expensive and suffers from over-smoothed reconstructions and rigid temporal constraints. This paper proposes to shift the condensation paradigm from optimization-based inversion to deterministic latent mapping. By leveraging Denoising Diffusion Implicit Models, we represent action segments as continuous trajectories anchored by sparse latent points in the noise manifold. To maximize representational efficiency, we introduce an adaptive allocation mechanism that dynamically redistributes the anchoring budget based on segment-wise reconstruction difficulty. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our framework significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods in segmentation performance across common datasets. Notably, our approach achieves performance parity with real data training while maintaining a condensation ratio of 2.4\% on Breakfast dataset.