Sadie Barlow, Andrea Nini, Edoardo Maninocs.CL stat.AP
Authorship verification (AV) is the task of determining whether two texts were written by the same author. In a forensic context, the strength of AV evidence can be quantified using likelihood ratios. Most AV methods are score-based and deriving well-calibrated likelihood ratios from these scores requires a separate calibration model. This, in turn, requires additional amounts of case-relevant data, which is often time-consuming to obtain and prepare. This study proposes two novel normalisation techniques, the Square Root Correction and the Hapax Correction, for deriving likelihood ratios from the AV method LambdaG without the need of a calibration model (Nini et al. 2026). These corrections are designed to mitigate the overestimation of evidential strength that may result from long or highly repetitive texts. Performance is evaluated against logistic regression calibration across fifteen corpora and a range of text lengths (100-9,500 tokens), using the log-likelihood ratio cost (Cllr). The proposed methods achieve performance comparable to logistic regression calibration, with the Hapax Correction outperforming it in approximately 45% of tests (weighted by corpora). Furthermore, performance was more frequently close (within 5%) when the Hapax Correction was outperformed by logistic regression calibration, compared with the reverse comparison. Eliminating the need to train a calibration model reduces data-requirements, time and complexity, thereby increasing the accessibility and transparency of forensic text comparison. This combination of empirical performance and practical advantages supports the adoption of the proposed methods in forensic settings.
The likelihood ratio framework is widely recognized as the logically and legally sound basis for evidential analysis across forensic sciences, and its importance is increasingly acknowledged in analyses of authorship in textual evidence. To date, however, its application has been confined to English-language texts. Meanwhile, authorship attribution has traditionally relied on a diverse array of stylometric features, even as the rise of pre-trained large language models enables new contextual-embedding approaches. Combining these diverse approaches through fusion promises enhanced performance, yet it has not been applied to integrate stylometric-feature systems with embedding-based systems within the likelihood ratio paradigm. This study is the first to apply likelihood ratio-based forensic text comparison to Japanese digital texts, using ~1,000-character excerpts from blogs, to 1) evaluate system performance and likelihood ratio magnitudes and 2) assess the impact of fusing stylometric-feature systems with embedding-based systems. The results demonstrate that the fused system maintains excellent calibration while 1) increasing consistent-with-fact likelihood ratio magnitudes; 2) decreasing contrary-to-fact likelihood ratio magnitudes and 3) improving overall discriminability. The best-performing fusion achieved a log-likelihood-ratio cost of 0.32484, illustrating both the feasibility of likelihood ratio framework for Japanese and the benefits of fusion across heterogeneous systems.
Generative policies provide expressive and multimodal action distributions, making them attractive for reinforcement learning (RL) in complex continuous-control tasks. Among them, flow-based policies are especially appealing because they generate actions through deterministic transport maps. However, applying such generative policies to likelihood-based on-policy learning remains limited by the difficulty of evaluating the probability of executed actions. Existing flow RL methods either replace the true action-density ratio with approximate surrogates, which can introduce biased updates, or recover exact likelihoods through dummy-action augmentation, which enlarges the policy space and increases computation. In this work, we propose GenPO++, a reversible generative policy optimization framework that uses history states as auxiliary memory in a high-order reversible ODE solver, yielding exact inversion without changing the original action dimension. The resulting generative policy map has a log-determinant determined only by fixed solver coefficients, enabling exact and Jacobian-free likelihood-ratio computation. This design preserves the expressiveness of generative flow policies while avoiding both action ratio bias and dummy-action overhead. We evaluate GenPO++ on large-scale simulated control, fine-tuning, and real-world robotic manipulation tasks, where it achieves competitive or superior performance over state-of-the-art on-policy RL methods, while improving training stability and computational efficiency.