Zaki Mahfoud, Juan A. Chiavassa, Simon Walther +2cs.CV
Declining insect populations make reliable biodiversity monitoring increasingly urgent, yet monitoring of insect biodiversity is hampered by a lack of standardised data and by costly and time-consuming manual identification by expert entomologists. Deep learning-based image classifiers, processing data from automated non-lethal camera traps, have the potential to transform and scale insect biodiversity monitoring. However, challenges remain in acquiring expert-annotated datasets, developing model architectures that generalise well across diverse taxonomic levels and training models on highly imbalanced data. Hierarchical data also benefits from designing models that default to higher-confidence, coarser-level predictions, when uncertain about finer taxonomic levels. In this paper we address these challenges with a deep learning-based hierarchical classification model. First, we present a manually curated, long-tailed dataset of around one million images of insects, extracted from 1,801 camera-trap video recordings and annotated with a five-level, 34-class hierarchy. Further, we adapt a hierarchical classification model architecture to a five-level variable-depth hierarchy, with class-balanced weighting. Our model improves on non-hierarchical classifiers by leveraging biological taxonomy to extract granularity-specific visual features and makes hierarchy-consistent predictions to the deepest taxonomic level that meets a confidence threshold (T = 0.6). Our model achieved a per-level accuracy of 80-99% on test data, across five levels of hierarchy. Furthermore ...
Generative modeling of longitudinal Electronic Health Records is increasingly important for privacy-preserving research, yet standard autoregressive models tend to underrepresent the co-occurrence structure of tail events (i.e., diseases, symptoms), reducing the fidelity and faithfulness of generated data for rare subpopulations. To this end, we propose AdaPCLA framework, which enables generative models to adaptively fit and generate EHR data through a data distribution-aware training strategy; this is achieved by internalizing data knowledge parameters by simulated annealing training. It also supports training-free adaptation to a diverse clinical population for generation through zero-shot distribution control. Moreover, our theoretical analysis characterizes rare-code logit updates through the label-wise empirical NTK and derives a prior-internalization bound for how annealing speed and NTK conditioning affect retained prior signals. Experiments on real-world data show that AdaPCLA achieves consistent gains in tail plausibility, downstream utility, and zero-shot control; in particular, it improves TailPairSeen over HALO by 114.2% on MIMIC-III and 65.1% on MIMIC-IV, outperforms GPT-style generation by 3.5% F1 for zero-shot cross-population adaptation.
Prediction sets should have high coverage to be useful, but some coverage notions are more practically relevant than others. In the classification setting, class-conditional coverage requires that the prediction set (i.e., the set of candidate labels for a new test point) must achieve the target accuracy level within each class, which may be challenging to satisfy when many classes are rare and have few calibration points. At the other extreme, marginal coverage requires only that coverage holds on average over the distribution of all classes, which can lead to low-probability labels being essentially ignored. To find a middle ground, recent work has introduced macro-coverage, defined as the unweighted average of class-conditional coverages. Macro-coverage offers a compromise between marginal coverage and class-conditional coverage that is particularly appropriate for long-tailed settings. In this work, we show that label-weighted conformal prediction can be used to produce prediction sets with a finite-sample macro-coverage guarantee, and more generally a guarantee on a family of generalized macro-coverage objectives that aggregate coverage at the level of arbitrary class groupings and take a weighted average. We further characterize the form of the smallest prediction sets satisfying a given generalized macro-coverage objective and propose a corresponding conformal score function. We validate our theoretical results on two large-scale image classification datasets.