$\texttt{DisMorph}$: learning to disentangle technical distortions from true biological change

Longitudinal MRI enables sensitive measurement of structural brain change for studying aging and neurodegenerative disease. Deformable image registration is a key tool for estimating such change by computing a dense deformation that captures geometric differences between longitudinal scans. However, MRI scanners introduce geometric distortions that vary across acquisition systems and protocols, such as gradient non-linearity (GNL) distortion. Existing registration methods estimate a single field that conflates biological and technical effects, potentially biasing downstream morphometric measurements if distortions remain (partially) uncorrected. We propose $\texttt{DisMorph}$, a registration framework trained entirely on synthetic data that explicitly decomposes longitudinal deformation into technical and anatomical transforms. It predicts two dense deformations, each encoding one effect. During training, a novel generative model synthesizes both effects separately to provide disentanglement supervision, while domain randomization promotes generalization across imaging protocols. We evaluate our method in three complementary settings. On simulated data with known ground truth, our method detects anatomical change more accurately and consistently than conventional registration. On real image pairs that differ only by GNL distortion, our method assigns most geometric change to the distortion field, demonstrating specificity in the absence of anatomical change. On longitudinal Alzheimer's disease (AD) pairs, our method detects anatomical change in AD-related brain structures while identifying residual distortion left after standard correction. By disentangling MRI-induced distortion from biological change in the longitudinal deformation, our method paves the way for more accurate longitudinal morphometry in clinical settings where maintaining acquisition consistency is challenging.

TRACE-PCa: Predicting Prostate Cancer Progression from Longitudinal MRI During Active Surveillance

Active surveillance (AS) is the preferred strategy for favorable-risk prostate cancer, yet current protocols rely on scheduled repeat biopsies, most of which reveal no progression and are unnecessary. Existing risk-stratification tools operate on single time-point imaging or depend on explicit lesion segmentation, limiting their ability to capture longitudinal change and excluding patients without an MRI-visible lesion. In this study, we propose an end-to-end temporal and multimodal model for predicting pathological progression during AS without lesion segmentation. We encode each serial scan with a pretrained 3D MRI foundation model and introduce a temporal attention gate that recalibrates the multi-visit features to amplify focal imaging changes associated with progression. The gated imaging representation is then fused with clinical variables in a multimodal framework to estimate the probability of progression. Validated on a longitudinal AS cohort, our approach consistently outperforms competing baselines and performs comparably to the radiologist assessment representing current clinical practice. It maintains high negative predictive value while achieving higher positive predictive value, demonstrating its potential to safely reduce unnecessary biopsies during surveillance.

Progression as Latent Drift: Generative Forecasting of Slow-Evolving Pathologies

Forecasting the future anatomy of slow-evolving neurodegenerative diseases could enable earlier, more targeted intervention and improve clinical trial design, but it remains challenging because true progression signals are subtle in longitudinal MRI. In this low-signal regime, transferring modern generative sequence models directly is unreliable: training is dominated by stable baseline anatomy and confounded by dense, sample-specific nuisance variation. We first provide a theoretical analysis that explains these failures through two modes. Identity collapse occurs when optimization is driven toward reproducing the current anatomy, which prevents the model from learning faint temporal change. The continuous interpolation trap arises when standard smooth networks cannot separate localized biological drift from pervasive noise, which leads to spurious changes that diffuse across the volume. To address both issues, we propose Latent Drift, a progressive generative framework that learns change in a compressed semantic representation rather than synthesizing full-resolution anatomy. This design removes pixel-level identity from the prediction target and concentrates model capacity on progression-relevant dynamics. We further apply Finite Scalar Quantization to the learned change representation, which suppresses small, high-frequency nuisance fluctuations while preserving consistent structural drift. Experiments on longitudinal 3D brain MRI show that Latent Drift improves patient-specific neuro-forecasting over diffusion and autoregressive transformer baselines across generative fidelity and clinically relevant evaluation metrics. Project page: \href{https://cutepkq.github.io/latent-drift}{https://cutepkq.github.io/latent-drift}.

SMART: A Flexible, Interpretable, and Scalable Spatio-temporal Brain Atlas from High-Resolution Imaging Data

We introduce SMART, a framework for learning a flexible, interpretable, and scalable spatio-temporal brain atlas from longitudinal high-resolution 3D medical images. Existing approaches to spatio-temporal atlas construction rely on black-box generative models that lack flexibility, limit interpretability, and struggle to scale to high-dimensional data. SMART addresses these challenges by learning a continuous disease-time atlas that decouples global group-wise disease dynamics from their patient-specific anatomical manifestation. Guided by anatomically inspired priors, SMART models interpretable global trajectories of regional progression along a shared disease timeline through region-specific differential equations. Global trajectories are further personalized to individual anatomies via dense diffeomorphic displacements parameterized by a flexible and scalable multi-scale Neural Cellular Automata. Evaluated on five longitudinal MRI datasets in Alzheimer's disease (ADNI-1/GO/2, OASIS-3, AIBL; > 1,300 subjects), SMART produces anatomically meaningful predictions of disease progression and achieves state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy and improved temporal consistency over adversarial and diffusion baselines. Our approach establishes a new paradigm for flexible, interpretable, and scalable modeling of spatio-temporal change in high-dimensional medical image time-series.