Change Detection in Probability Flow ODE: Online Testing in Diffusion Latent Spaces

A rapidly growing range of sequential data tasks, such as identifying trend reversals in financial markets, auto-segmenting video and audio recordings, detecting changes in movement direction from motion sensors cannot be fully addressed without detection of distributional shifts in time-ordered data. We consider a sequential change-point detection problem where the conditional density switches at an unknown time, yet neither the pre- nor post-change distribution admits a closed-form. Classical likelihood-ratio statistics are inapplicable in this settings. A conditional diffusion model, trained on pre-change-point data with a frozen context encoder, defines a deterministic bijection via the probability flow ODE. Pre-change observations are mapped onto standard Gaussian latent variables. Post-change observations, processed through the same frozen map, deviate from this reference. We employ the Maximum Mean Discrepancy as the test statistic, derive closed-form expressions for its components under the Gaussian null, and establish its asymptotic distribution as a degenerate U-statistic. Afterwards we apply an online detection procedure of Shiryaev--Roberts to the resulting statistic with exact threshold calibration. The method detects arbitrary distributional shifts, including covariance rotations and higher-order structural breaks, without parametric assumptions on either regime.

Conditional Distribution Estimation for Functional Responses with Random Forests

Many functional data analyses reduce random functions to scalar summaries or conditional mean curves. This is limiting when we wish to understand how covariates affect the distribution of entire functional responses, including their shape, timing, or variability. We study the problem of estimating conditional laws of functional outcomes and show that these objects can be estimated and evaluated in a practical nonparametric framework. To do this, we introduce functional distributional random forests, which estimate each conditional law as a covariate-dependent distribution over sampled functions by training a random forest to minimize a kernel-based maximum mean discrepancy within the leaf nodes of the decision tree. This supports inference on arbitrary functionals of the conditional distribution while keeping predictive samples tied to realistic curves. We consider a variety of kernels defined on function spaces, including Sobolev and operator-induced kernels. We also provide conditions for consistency of our estimator and develop scoring rules for comparing it to baseline estimators. In simulations, our method recovers distributional changes that are missed by baseline methods. In an application to NHANES accelerometer data, it identifies interesting covariate-associated changes in both median activity profiles and predictive dispersion.

Wasserstein gradient flows for Coulomb discrepancies

We study the long-time behavior of the Wasserstein gradient flow of the squared Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) between a probability measure $ρ$ and a target measure $μ$, where the underlying kernel is given by a Coulomb potential. For $L^\infty$ target densities $μ$, we establish the existence of global weak solutions starting from arbitrary Borel probability measures and prove that the density $ρ_t$ belongs to $L^\infty$ for any $t>0$. We also show that the Hölder norm can grow exponentially in time. On the flat torus ${\mathbb{T}}^\mathsf{d}$, we prove a global metric PL inequality for every finite-Coulomb-energy source and nearly uniform target. For general bounded, uniformly positive targets, we prove exponential decay of the squared MMD without requiring a lower bound on the initial data, using a defective PL inequality. We also prove that the usual PL inequality may fail when the target vanishes only at one point and that, when $\mathsf{d}\ge2$, no PL constant can hold uniformly over all targets satisfying a prescribed lower bound. On ${\mathbb{R}}^\mathsf{d}$, for $\mathsf{d}\ge2$, under radial symmetry, source-support inclusion, and target-positivity assumptions, we establish a PL inequality and exponential convergence. On the unrestricted whole-space class, neither a multiplicative squared-MMD decay modulus uniform over the initial datum nor a global PL inequality can hold. Finally, in every dimension and in both spatial settings, we prove that every Lagrangian critical point coincides with the target when $(ρ-μ)^+$ is absolutely continuous. In dimension two, the energy supplies uniform tightness. This implies that if our constructed solutions have finite energy at some positive time, then they converge to the target narrowly and strongly in negative-order Sobolev spaces.

Optimal Mixture-of-Experts Model Averaging for Conditional Generative Models

Conditional generative models have emerged as powerful tools for sampling from target conditional distributions, driving substantial advances across a wide range of scientific and applied domains. As these models proliferate, practitioners often face multiple plausible generators whose performance can vary with the task, data, or input condition. We propose an optimal model averaging framework for conditional generative models, allowing candidate generators to be combined even when they are accessible only through conditional samples without tractable densities. Specifically, we use a sample-based maximum mean discrepancy between conditional distributions, which first leads to a static model averaging method, StaticMA, assigning fixed weights to different candidates. In addition, we develop MoEMA (mixture-of-experts model averaging), an input-adaptive method that parameterizes covariate-dependent weights through a softmax neural-network gate. We establish in-sample and out-of-sample asymptotic optimality for the proposed methods, together with consistency of the estimated adaptive weight function under regularity conditions. The framework applies directly to Euclidean responses and extends to unstructured data by combining our formulation with fixed representation maps. Across a broad set of simulations and real-data studies spanning tabular, image, and text modalities, MoEMA generally improves over competing baselines, demonstrating the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

Scalable and Differentiable Point-Cloud Registration Using Maximum Mean Discrepancy

We present MMD-Reg, a novel correspondence-free approach to point-cloud registration that is differentiable and has linear computational complexity in the number of points. We model registration as a nonlinear least-squares problem based on the Maximum Mean Discrepancy, approximated using random Fourier features. The resulting objective can be solved efficiently with standard methods such as Levenberg-Marquardt, and the solution is differentiable via the implicit function theorem. This allows MMD-Reg to be used as a differentiable optimization layer within end-to-end trainable models, supporting registration under challenging conditions such as poor initial alignment and partial overlap. We demonstrate this Neural MMD-Reg formulation by integrating the layer with a set transformer, training the resulting model in supervised and unsupervised settings, and comparing its performance against recent learning-based methods. We also evaluate standalone MMD-Reg, comparing its accuracy and scalability against widely used non-learning-based registration methods.

Nonparametric Deconvolution and Denoising using Simulation Based Inference

Latent signals are often obscured by measurement noise, yet encode the underlying laws and dynamics of complex systems; learning both the signals and their distributions remains a central challenge in scientific inference. The noise is often non-negligible, and the likelihoods for expressive generative models are often intractable. We utilize a convolutional maximum mean discrepancy (convMMD) loss and propose a likelihood-free framework for nonparametric density deconvolution and empirical Bayes denoising under additive measurement error. Our method learns a latent generative model by matching the observed data distribution to the noise-convolved model distribution. This yields a differentiable, simulation-based objective for multivariate homoscedastic or heteroscedastic noise, compatible with expressive sieve classes such as Gaussian mixtures and normalizing flows. The learned density then serves as an empirical prior for posterior denoising of individual latent values. Theoretically, we extend convMMD from parametric to nonparametric estimation, proving finite-sample bounds for empirical sieve minimizers and $L_2$ convergence rates under Sobolev smoothness. These rates recover the classical inverse-problem dependence: polynomial for ordinary-smooth and logarithmic for super-smooth noises. Our method provides a practical, theoretically grounded approach to deconvolution and denoising under generative latent distribution models.

Identifiability and Estimation for Unlabeled Finite Mixtures under Marginal Independence

We study component recovery and mixing-matrix estimation from unlabeled finite mixtures whose observable distributions share the same latent components but have unknown mixing weights. The main identifying signal is marginal independence: each component is assumed to be independent on at least one coordinate pair, but no labels, clean component samples, or mixing weights are observed. We first prove a structural result for product components: under a subset-rank condition on the spans of the univariate marginals, any independent affine combination of the components must coincide with a single component. We then extend this principle to observable mixtures and show that, under the corresponding subset-rank, full-rank, and no-cancellation conditions, marginally independent affine combinations recover the corresponding latent components. When every component is independent on some coordinate pair, all components are identifiable, and the mixing matrix is recoverable under the stated completion conditions. Finally, we propose a Product-Marginal Maximum Mean Discrepancy (PM-MMD) estimator over affine combinations of the observable mixtures and prove uniform convergence and stability under approximate marginal independence. This framework also separates the empirical roles of the assumptions: irreducibility is, in general, not directly testable from the unlabeled mixtures alone, whereas marginal independence yields a candidate-level diagnostic through held-out PM-MMD. Controlled and flow-cytometry experiments show when marginal independence provides a useful recovery signal. In the reported multi-component comparisons, condition-aware representative selection stabilizes PM-MMD and improves recovery relative to clustering, factorization, and pairwise mixture-proportion baselines using the same unlabeled mixtures.

Measuring Differences between Conditional Distributions using Kernel Embeddings

Comparing conditional distributions is a fundamental challenge in statistics and machine learning, with applications across a wide range of domains. While proposed methods for measuring discrepancies using kernel embeddings of distributions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) provide powerful non-parametric techniques, the existing literature remains fragmented and lacks a unified theoretical treatment. This paper addresses this gap by establishing a coherent framework for studying kernel-based methods to measure divergence between conditional distributions through what we refer to as conditional maximum mean discrepancy (CMMD). The CMMD consists of a family of metrics which we call levels, with three special cases each using a different type of RKHS embedding: CMMD$_0$ (conditional mean operators), CMMD$_1$ (conditional mean embeddings), and CMMD$_2$ (joint mean embeddings). We additionally introduce a general level $s$ CMMD, clarifying the required assumptions, and establishing mathematical connections between the levels through the lens of operator-based smoothing. In addition to reviewing previously proposed estimators, we introduce a novel doubly robust estimator for the CMMD that maintains consistency provided at least one of the underlying models is correctly specified. We provide numerical experiments demonstrating that the CMMD effectively captures complex conditional dependencies for statistical testing.