An Duy Nguyen, Muhammad Aurangzeb Ahmadphysics.soc-ph cs.AI
Researchers increasingly treat LLM survey responses as a proxy for human cultural values. This includes projecting model outputs onto instruments like the Inglehart-Welzel Cultural Map and drawing conclusions about which cultures a model resembles. While a model's answer to a value-laden questions may be interpreted as a cultural signal, it also carries sampling noise and, can be quite sensitive to question framing. In this paper, we separate survey responses, sampling noise and question framing for multiple LLMs. We decompose response variance from these models into variation across random seeds, prompt rewordings. We employ noise-to-signal ratio (NSR) to test whether a model's apparent cultural position is distinguishable from noise. When applied across a dozen models from four geographic origins, calibrated against 88 Integrated Values Survey countries, the answer is often no. NSR exceeds 1.0 on 49 of 117 valid model-question pairs (42%), reaching 5.56 in the worst case. Two models even refuse to answer sufficient number of survey questions outright. Our results corroborate previous findings that LLMs cluster toward Western, English-speaking cultural positions. However, what does not hold up in this study is the precision with which anyone can currently interpret a specific model's coordinates: prompt tone alone can shift a model by 2.4 map units, comparable to the distance between actual countries in the Inglehart-Welzel Cultural Map. These findings suggest that cultural attribution from LLM survey responses requires establishing the reliability of the underlying measurements before interpreting model coordinates as evidence of cultural representation.
On modular arithmetic, a network's embedding keeps compressing for tens of thousands of steps after it has already generalized. Reading effective rank at the grokking transition overstates the converged value by 3-5x on an MLP, and by 1.3-1.5x on a transformer trained to convergence; on the MLP it also erases which cells compress at all. Compression lags the accuracy transition by an amount on the order of the time-to-grok, at least 10,000 steps, rather than coinciding with it. A one-variable ablation shows what sets the lag size: adding LayerNorm to an otherwise identical transformer moves the fraction of compression done by the grok step from 0.87 to 0.25, and a pre-registered control rules out scale invariance as the mechanism. We package this as an audit that separates onset from compression, flags censoring, excludes boundary cells that never fully generalize, and checks that the reference floor has plateaued, with an adversarial suite that caught a false-confidence bug in our own branch. A secondary, MLP-specific depth law linking norm budget to converged floor fails a generality test on a transformer and flips sign under free weight decay. Code and the toolkit are released.