Sharp Minimax Regret for Infinite-Memory Logistic Prediction

We study online prediction for a specific finite-alphabet, exogenously driven source with infinite input memory. Independent Rademacher inputs $(U_t)$ are observed sequentially, and the next binary mark has logit $\sum_{j=1}^{t}θ_jU_{t+1-j}$, where $\abs{θ_j}\leq r_j$ and $\sum_jr_j\leq B$. Regret is expected cumulative excess log loss. Lag $j$ can affect prediction by scale $r_j$ and enters only $n_{T,j}=T-j+1$ prediction rounds, leading to the lag-resolved spectrum $Γ_T(r)=\sum_{j=1}^{T}\log\!\left(1+n_{T,j}r_j^2\right)$. For every summable envelope, a localized Bayesian mixture proves $\cR_T(r)\leq CΓ_T(r)$. For exponential and polynomial envelopes, under the stated finite-sample dimension condition, a Toeplitz-design converse proves $\cR_T(r)\geq cΓ_T(r)$, with constants allowed to depend on the fixed decay parameters and the logit bound. Thus $Γ_T(r)$ is the minimax cumulative-regret scale for this source class in these canonical regimes, giving $Θ(α^{-1}\log^2T)$ for $r_j=Ae^{-αj}$ and $Θ(T^{1/(2s)})$ for $r_j=Aj^{-s}$, $s>1$. The converse is specific to the exogenous lagged model and is not a profile-only theorem for arbitrary stationary infinite-memory sources. Retaining only the most recent $h$ inputs costs order $\sum_{j>h}n_{T,j}θ_j^2$, yet the same worst-case truncation profile can correspond to polynomially different regret. A scaled online Newton predictor attains the spectrum upper bound.

Minimax Alternating Regret for the Experts Problem and Online Convex Optimization

In this paper, we study alternating regret in online convex optimization (OCO), motivated by the success of alternating learning dynamics in two-player games. Although previous works have shown that $o(\sqrt{T})$ alternating regret is achievable under various assumptions on the loss functions and feasible domains, the minimax regret rate has remained open even for the expert problem. In this paper, we resolve this question by showing matching lower and upper bounds for both the expert problem and general OCO. Somewhat surprisingly, for the $d$-expert problem, we show that the minimax alternating regret is $Θ(\log d)$, independent of the horizon $T$. This significantly improves upon the best-known $\mathcal{O}(T^{1/3}\log^{2/3} d)$ established by Hait et al. [2025]. We further extend our results to general OCO over a $d$-dimensional compact convex set and prove that the worst-case minimax alternating regret is $Θ\left(d\log \left(1+\frac{T}{d}\right)\right)$, also significantly improving upon the best-known $\mathcal{O}((d\log T)^{2/3}T^{1/3})$ upper bound and resolving the open problem posed by Cevher et al. [2023], Hait et al. [2025]. Technically, our upper bound for the expert problem is achieved by a corrected variant of Hedge, in which carefully designed correction terms cancel the unfavorable curvature arising in the alternating-regret analysis. We extend the same corrected-potential argument to continuous action sets to obtain the optimal alternating-regret rate for OCO. For the lower bounds, the expert construction repeatedly eliminates half of the candidate experts, while the OCO lower bound instance construction replaces this discrete elimination by a more involved multiscale construction on the unit disk.

Optimizing Minimax Regret in Uncertain MDPs with Small Sets of Policies

Sequential decision-making in real-world applications often involves uncertainty about the environment's model. Uncertain Markov decision processes (UMDPs) represent the possible environments as a set of MDPs with shared states and actions but potentially different transition probabilities and rewards. Optimizing a single policy across all possible MDPs may sacrifice performance, while preparing an individually optimized policy for every MDP may violate operational, regulatory, or interpretability constraints on the number of policies that can be prepared and deployed. We consider settings in which model uncertainty is resolved shortly before execution, allowing the most suitable policy to be selected from a limited set prepared in advance. We introduce $k$-adaptable policy synthesis, which optimizes such a set of $k$ policies under a minimax-regret objective. We prove that the problem is NP-hard and develop KAPS, an exact nested branch-and-bound algorithm with problem-specific bounds and heuristics. KAPS jointly optimizes which MDPs share a policy and the policies themselves. Experiments across various UMDP benchmarks show that the largest reduction in regret consistently occurs when increasing from one to two policies. In the single-policy setting, KAPS is competitive with existing methods in solution quality and proves optimality substantially more often.

The Price of Hidden Curvature: An $\widetildeΩ (d^{5/4} \sqrt{T})$ Lower Bound for Bandit Convex Optimization

We establish a $\widetildeΩ(d^{5/4}\sqrt T)$ lower bound on the minimax expected regret of stochastic bandit convex optimization of $1$-Lipschitz functions on the Euclidean ball. This presents the first nontrivial regret lower bound that grows faster than $d\sqrt{T}$ for this problem, establishing that stochastic bandit convex optimization is fundamentally harder than linear bandits. The hard class of convex functions we construct takes the following form in dimension $2d$: for an action $a = (a^1,a^2) \in \mathbb{B}^{2d}_2$, each function is the scaled soft maximum of a "tube", $r^{-1} \| W^\star a^1 - \frac{r}{8\varepsilon} a^2 \|_2$ (hyperparameterized by $\varepsilon,r$), and a squared distance function, $\frac12 \| a^1 - u^\star \|_2^2 - \frac12 \| u^\star \|_2^2$. Here, $W^\star \in \mathbb{R}^{d \times d}$ is an unknown linear transformation, and $u^\star \in \mathbb{R}^{d}$ is an unknown vector which must be learned to minimize the function. Observations are informative about $u^\star$ only when the learner's action lies near the tube determined by $W^\star$, satisfying $a^2 \approx \frac{8\varepsilon}{r} W^\star a^1$: thus the learner must either find this tube without knowing $W^\star$, or spend observations learning useful directions of $W^\star$. Formally, our regret analysis exploits this tradeoff by bounding the posterior spread of Fisher information matrices obtained under an adaptive sequence of actions. Together, these ingredients give a sample complexity lower bound of $\widetildeΩ(d^{5/2}/\varepsilon^2)$ to find an $\varepsilon$-optimal action, which translates to an $\widetildeΩ (d^{5/4} \sqrt{T})$ regret lower bound. We also extend this lower bound to the unconstrained setting where the action space is $\mathbb{R}^d$.

Price of Fairness in Bandits: A Tight Minimax Characterization

In bandit problems, standard regret-minimizing algorithms treat exploration as an amortized cost, which can expose early participants to unfair ex-ante losses in settings such as clinical trials. Recent work addresses this by evaluating the sequence of per-round expected rewards through the generalized $p$-mean, interpolating between utilitarian welfare ($p=1$), Nash welfare ($p\to0$), and Rawlsian fairness ($p\to-\infty$). Although tight guarantees are known for $p\ge0$, the strictly fair regime $q=-p>0$ remains unresolved because negative-power means are dominated by the smallest per-round rewards. For $σ$-sub-Gaussian rewards with nonnegative means, the best prior algorithm relied on uniform early exploration and achieved regret $O(k^{(q+1)/2}/\sqrt{T})$, while the only general lower bound was the classical $Ω(σ\sqrt{k/T})$. Thus it was unclear whether the extra dependence on $k$ was intrinsic to strict fairness or an artifact of uniform exploration. We close this gap by identifying the exact polynomial price of strict fairness. Using a needle-in-haystack construction, we prove an algorithm-independent lower bound $Ω(σ\sqrt{k^{\max(1,q)}/T})$; for $q>1$, this shows that the penalty $k^{q/2}$ is information-theoretically unavoidable. We then introduce \textsf{UCB-HARE} (Harmonic Anchored Rank Exploration), which replaces uniform exploration with an inverse-weighted harmonic rank schedule protected by a certified positive-mean anchor. Its regret is $\widetilde{O}(σ\sqrt{k^{\max(1,q)}/T})$, matching the lower bound up to logarithmic factors. Experiments on synthetic instances confirm that \textsf{UCB-HARE} improves over uniform-exploration baselines, with gains increasing as $q$ grows.

Beyond Bayesian Nash: Learning Minimax-Regret Equilibria for Adversarial Team Games under Asymmetric Information

Adversarial team games (ATGs) with asymmetric information, such as adversarial path-finding, goal search, and reachability games on graphs, require strategies that are robust to hidden opponent types, such as a hidden goal flag, and to deception. Under asymmetric information, deception is seen as strategic shifts in the type distribution such that the omniscient opponent can collude with Nature and condition its play on the observed type. Existing risk-neutral solution concepts, such as Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE), are sensitive to distribution shifts, while distributionally robust approaches provide guarantees only within a prescribed ambiguity set. To address these limitations, we introduce Probabilistically Robust Minimax-Regret Equilibrium (PR-MRE), a novel equilibrium concept that combines the distribution-free robustness of minimax-regret reasoning with probabilistic information from a nominal type distribution. PR-MRE minimizes worst-case regret over a high-confidence subset of the type space, providing protection against strategic redistribution of probability mass while avoiding the conservatism of fully distribution-free approaches. We show that, for normal-form Bayesian games, PR-MRE can be formulated as a robust bilinear program and derive a tractable semidefinite relaxation. We then adapt this relaxation into a novel meta-solver within a robust double-oracle framework, PRMRE-PSRO, enabling population-based learning of approximate PR-MRE strategies via deep reinforcement learning best responses. Experiments on graph-structured adversarial team games demonstrate that PR-MRE discovers strategies with substantially improved worst-case performance across hidden types compared to risk-neutral equilibrium solutions, resulting in more robust behavior under strategic distribution shifts.

Prior-Agnostic Robust Forecast Aggregation

Robust forecast aggregation combines the predictions of multiple information sources to perform well in the worst case across all possible information structures. Previous work largely focuses on settings with a known binary state space, where the state is either 0 or 1. We study prior-agnostic robust forecast aggregation in which the aggregator observes only experts' reports, yet is ignorant of both the underlying joint information structure and the full prior, including the underlying state space. Unlike the standard model that fixes the binary state space {0, 1}, we allow the (binary) unknown state values to be arbitrary numbers in [0, 1], so the same reported probability may correspond to very different realized outcome frequencies across environments. Our main contribution is a simple, explicit, closed-form log-odds aggregator that linearly pools forecasts in logit space, together with (nearly-)tight minimax-regret guarantees across three knowledge regimes. We first show that under conditionally independent (CI) signals, robust aggregation with an unknown state space is strictly harder than in the known-state setting by establishing a larger lower bound, and our aggregation rule can achieve a worst-case regret of 0.0255. Along the way, we also characterize tight regret bounds for Blackwell-ordered structures and for general information structures. In the classical setting with known state space {0,1}, our aggregator achieves regret strictly below 0.0226 for CI structures. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first explicit closed-form aggregator that achieves a regret upper bound strictly less than 0.0226. Finally, we extend the model where the aggregator additionally knows each expert's marginal forecast distribution; in this setting, with the CI structures, we show that a generalized log-odds rule achieves regret of 0.0228, complementing with a lower bound of 0.0225.