Depth Enables Local Entropy: Quadratic Depth Dependence in Deep Variation-Norm ReLU Regression

We study Gaussian regression over the explicit vector-valued Parhi--Nowak deep-RBV^2 architecture with depth L, width w, layer-sum variation budget A, and output bound B. For this O(L w^2)-parameterized architecture, the known lower and upper bounds differ by one factor of depth. We construct a local packing showing that the quadratic depth dependence is intrinsic under an explicit sample-size-dependent radius condition. The packing has log-cardinality Omega(L^2 w^2 log w); its codewords lie in an O(lambda) L^2 ball and are pairwise Omega(lambda)-separated. The main ingredients are a bias-corrected bounded-coefficient approximation theorem and balanced amplification: multiplying a depth-D ReLU network by q can be implemented using one constant channel so that every coefficient grows by only q^(1/D). Translation to vector-valued RBV^2 blocks then has layer-sum cost O(D w^2 q^(1/D)). Gaussian Fano yields a radius-explicit lower bound governed by the output, testing, and representation scales. Under A=B=R, sigma proportional to R, and the stated radius condition, this gives minimax risk at least of order L^2 w^2 log(w) R^2/n. A pseudodimension-based finite-net upper bound gives O-tilde(L^2 w^2 R^2/n) for unbounded Gaussian responses. Thus the minimax risk has quadratic polynomial dependence on depth, up to logarithmic factors, and exhibits a transition to representation-limited behavior at smaller radius.

Black-Box Knowledge Transfer across Distinct Feature Sets

Pre-trained black-box predictive functions encode knowledge distilled from massive datasets and extensive computation. However, when the available input features differ from those the black box expects, direct use is infeasible. We introduce a method for transferring predictive knowledge from the black box to a new, heterogeneous input space. Our approach decomposes the target regression function into a transferable component, which the black box can inform, and a non-transferable component, which captures information unique to the new space. We propose a two-step neural network procedure, estimating the transferable component from abundant unlabeled feature pairs that bridge the two input spaces and the non-transferable component from limited labels. We derive prediction risk bounds that improve on those of a non-transfer alternative when the non-transferable component is small or smooth, and the procedure adapts to either case. Under additional conditions, the worst-case risk of our estimator is of strictly smaller polynomial order than the minimax risk of estimation from the labeled data alone. We extend the framework to multiple black boxes, each on its own input space, and show that aggregation can reduce prediction error relative to the best single black box. Simulated and real data demonstrate the practical value of the method.

NL-PAC: Specification Ambiguity and Certified Minimax Risk Floors in LLM-Mediated Supervision

Large language models increasingly provide labels, evaluations, and feedback for tasks specified in natural language. When a specification admits multiple readings but the supervision channel does not reveal which is operative, additional labels reduce sampling error without resolving the resulting identification problem. We introduce Natural Language PAC (NL-PAC), a framework that uses a fixed model's thresholded decoding law to define admissible labels and candidate targets. The probability that multiple labels are admissible equals the diameter of the pointwise-admissible target class, and under target-blind supervision every learner incurs worst-case risk of at least half this diameter, at every sample size; the exact randomized minimax risk over this class is attained by a data-independent strategy. Finite-sample confidence bounds make these quantities certifiable from held-out unlabeled inputs. In a frozen Qwen~2.5--3B audit, one prespecified prompt yields a positive model-relative certificate, whereas a paraphrase and exact-rule controls yield zero. A held-out bridge audit finds that supplied candidate reading clauses fail the admissibility condition needed to transfer the certificate to coherent readings. The guarantee is specific to the audited model, prompt, threshold, and input distribution; extending it to human interpretations requires external validation.

The risk of KV cache compression

Transformer inference on long sequences is expensive because softmax attention repeatedly reads from a large KV cache. The prevalent approach to this bottleneck is KV cache compression, which replaces the full cache with a compact summary. Despite its practical importance, the design of such summaries is largely driven by empirical experimentation. On the theoretical side, existing results show that KV cache compression can be impossible in the worst case, but offer little systematic guidance for designing algorithms in regimes where accurate compression is possible. We bridge this gap by characterizing the minimax risk of KV cache compression in terms of the intrinsic compressibility of a cache, revealing when and how accurate compression is possible. These results yield novel design principles for KV cache compression under causal masking that map efficiently to prefill and autoregressive decoding while achieving minimax-optimal risk. We instantiate these principles in a practical algorithm and report promising performance on LongBench in targeted experiments. Overall, our results provide a principled avenue for practical KV cache compression with theoretical guarantees.

Is Spurious Correlation Removal Always Learnable?

Invariant learning can fail even when the invariant structure is statistically identifiable. We show a conditional computational barrier: under a black-box samplable supervised sparse recovery primitive motivated by average-case sparse-recovery reductions, there exist \emph{samplable} multi-environment instances with a one-dimensional predictive invariant subspace ($k=1$) that are learnable with polynomial samples by exhaustive search, while any polynomial-time constant-accuracy recovery algorithm would contradict the primitive. We further quantify environment diversity by a separation parameter $γ$, which controls identifiability and the curvature of invariance objectives. Under sufficient diversity and local Gaussian regularity, the minimax risk is $\mathbb{E}[\dist(\hat{V},V_{\mathrm{inv}})^2]=Θ(k(d-k)/(n|\mathcal{E}|))$, and under label-induced shifts a phase transition occurs at $n^*\propto k(d-k)/(|\mathcal{E}|γ^2)$ with refined estimation error scaling proportional to $1/γ^2$. Synthetic and real datasets illustrate the predicted gaps and transitions and motivate simple diversity diagnostics.