Births are difficult to predict even with rich survey and full-population register data

Major life events have proven difficult to predict. Does this reflect limits of theory, data, and algorithms, or the large role of chance? We examine one outcome - having a child within three years - through a near-ideal setting for prediction: a data challenge where 147 researchers predicted births for Dutch residents aged 18-45, using survey data and full-population registers. Methods ranged from logistic regression to a large language model and transformers. Predictions were moderately accurate (best F1: register 0.59, survey 0.76); advanced models did not outperform classical ones; and the larger registers did not beat the survey. Simulating the stochastic biology of conception and pregnancy, we estimated a predictive ceiling (survey F1 ~ 0.86-0.94, register 0.88-0.96). Observed performance falls short of this ceiling, implicating imperfect data, methods, and unmodelled chance, while the ceiling itself shows that chance in reproduction alone sets a non-trivial limit on predicting individual lives.

Error Detection for PET/CT Radiology Reports: Domain-Specific vs Large Language Models

Errors in radiology reports can adversely affect patient treatment, yet automated report quality assurance remains challenging because errors are often subtle and require domain expertise to detect. Although large language models (LLMs) have recently been proposed for radiology report verification, their ability to detect clinically meaningful errors beyond chest X-ray datasets remains under-explored. To this end, we present the first systematic evaluation of language models for PET/CT report error detection, comparing compact domain-specific models with SOTA open-weight LLMs. We collected 30,633 oncology FDG PET/CT reports from 23 radiologists over 10 years. We trained domain-specific BERT models to detect clinically motivated synthetic reporting errors and evaluated alongside zero-/few-shot Qwen3-32B, Gemma-3-27B and Llama-3.3-70B on a held-out benchmark of 11,500 reports. A 15M-parameter model achieved 94.4% balanced accuracy with a 5.8% false-positive rate, compared with 84.0% for the strongest prompted LLM. Task-specific adaptation of Llama-3.3-70B closed this performance gap (94.4%) but retained substantially greater computational requirements. Our results suggest that domain-specific training matters more than model scale for PET/CT report error detection, supporting compact models as an accurate and computationally efficient approach to automated radiology report quality assurance.

Dual-Model Sentiment Analysis of Consumer Reviews in the Retail Coffee Sector Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Approaches

Consumer reviews play an important role in shaping brand perception and business strategies, particularly in service-driven industries such as retail coffee. This study presents a comparative sentiment analysis framework for Starbucks customer reviews using classical machine learning and deep learning approaches. The dataset, collected from ConsumerAffairs, contains more than 700 reviews and was analyzed through preprocessing and exploratory data analysis to identify temporal and geographic patterns. Sentiment labels were generated by binarizing star ratings, with ratings of 4 and 5 classified as positive and ratings of 1 to 3 as negative. The resulting dataset was substantially imbalanced toward negative sentiment. Five machine learning classifiers, including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Naive Bayes, were evaluated alongside five deep learning models: LSTM, RNN, Bidirectional LSTM, GRU, and CNN. Model performance was assessed using accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score. SVM achieved the highest accuracy among the machine learning models at 91.0 percent, while Bidirectional LSTM showed the strongest performance among the deep learning models and demonstrated good generalization on unseen data. The findings also show that class imbalance negatively affected positive sentiment recall across several models. Overall, this study provides a comparative evaluation of machine learning and deep learning approaches for real-world consumer sentiment analysis and highlights the importance of appropriate model selection and preprocessing for customer experience analytics in the retail coffee sector.

Towards Sustainable Artificial Intelligence: A Comprehensive Review and Comparative Analysis of Deep Learning Models' Carbon Footprint

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) have become powerful tools for supporting and automating complex human tasks. Despite their benefits, growing attention has been directed toward their environmental implications, primarily due to their high energy demands and associated carbon emissions. This concern is particularly relevant in light of the increasing deployment of large-scale models, especially Deep Learning (DL) architectures, which provide advanced predictive capabilities but require substantial computational resources. This paper presents a systematic review of research on Green AI, Green DL, and optimization techniques aimed at reducing the environmental impact of AI models. In addition, we examine and compare several carbon measurement tools for estimating emissions generated by AI algorithms. To complement the review, we conducted an empirical evaluation using a CPU-based experimental setup, in which six DL models were implemented for a multi-label classification task. The objective was to quantify and compare their overall carbon emissions and to determine which stages of the DL lifecycle contribute most significantly to the total footprint. The results show that the training phase is the primary source of emissions. Moreover, the findings reveal that increased architectural complexity does not systematically translate into proportional accuracy gains, highlighting the importance of carefully balancing predictive performance and environmental cost. These results reinforce the need to integrate sustainability considerations into model selection and AI system design.

Can Training Logs Make Model Comparisons More Precise?

Comparing stochastically trained models requires estimating both a performance difference and its uncertainty from repeated runs. We study whether training logs from those same runs can make such comparisons more precise. Because training-log covariates are produced during training rather than measured before it, we use arm-specific covariate adjustment: each model is adjusted only with statistics from its own runs, and the raw mean difference remains the reported effect. In a vision study spanning three architectures and three datasets, simple adjustments based on early training logs often reduce uncertainty in model comparisons. The main limitation is covariate selection. Broadly searching the log pool for the most correlated statistic often adds more noise than it removes, even when useful statistics exist in hindsight. Training logs therefore appear useful for more precise model comparisons, but only when the adjustment avoids large selection noise.

Who Wins Where? Conformal Model Comparison for Local Superiority

Standard model comparison is global, aggregating losses across the covariate space to declare a single winner. This can obscure heterogeneous performance, where different models are preferable in different regions. We introduce conformalized local model comparison, a split-sample framework for constructing calibrated local best-model maps. Given a model comparison score, such as the difference between two squared losses, the method uses three disjoint splits to fit competing models, estimate local centers and scales from out-of-sample scores, and conformally calibrate residual uncertainty. At a target point, the procedure declares a local winner only when a one-sided conformal bound excludes a tie, with the score's sign determining the favored model. We prove finite-sample marginal control for one-sided erroneous declarations on the realized future comparison score, establish pointwise consistency of the localized mean-score estimator away from tie boundaries, show that aggregate comparison can disagree sharply with the prevalence of local superiority, and derive a squared-loss bias--variance decomposition that clarifies how model structure affects local wins. Synthetic and real-data experiments show that the method recovers heterogeneous winner regions, abstains under uncertainty, and yields higher conditional gain than global selection.

Persistent Convolution: A Topological Framework for AI Alignment Testing and Semantic Space Characterization

Modern opaque AI models prize performance over interpretability, which makes testing difficult. However, formal statistical tests conducted on a model's embedding space can provide robust characterizations of semantic structure, concept separation, and knowledge graph alignment. Model developers would benefit from a model comparison technique that leverages human-curated knowledge structures to test alignment. The scale of the input space for even relatively simple tasks motivates the need for alignment checks that augment standard outcome reasoning. This work develops and demonstrates a topology-based multi-modal alignment test to make deployment, selection, and comparison of opaque models more interpretable. These methods also offer an intuitive connection to possibility theory and a unified decision theoretic framework from data to deployment.

A Unified Benchmark of Deep Learning Models for Multi-task 3D Brain Tumor Segmentation from Magnetic Resonance Imaging

Automatic brain tumor segmentation from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has become a fundamental task in computer-assisted diagnosis, treatment planning, and disease monitoring. Although numerous deep learning architectures have recently been proposed, objective comparisons remain challenging because published studies often employ different datasets, preprocessing strategies, training protocols, and evaluation procedures. This work presents a unified experimental benchmark for comparing representative convolutional neural networks (CNNs), Transformer-based models, and recent State Space Model (SSM) architectures under homogeneous experimental conditions. Five state-of-the-art three-dimensional segmentation models, including 3D U-Net, SegResNet, Swin UNETR, SegMamba, and SegMambaV2, are evaluated on two brain tumor segmentation datasets representing distinct clinical scenarios: intracranial meningioma segmentation (BraTS 2023) and post-treatment glioma segmentation (BraTS 2024). All architectures are trained using identical preprocessing, data augmentation, optimization strategies, and evaluation protocols to ensure a fair comparison. Performance is assessed using segmentation accuracy metrics together with computational cost indicators, including inference time and the size of each model. The results provide practical insights into the trade-offs between segmentation accuracy and computational efficiency, highlighting the suitability of different architectural paradigms for challenging three-dimensional brain tumor segmentation tasks.

An analysis of machine learning approaches for enhancing decision-making in complex discrete choice tasks

Discrete choice modeling is a common tool used for preference elicitation during policy-making, but this is typically done through parametric models. Machine learning can push the boundaries of discrete choice modeling for policy-based preference elicitation by adopting a data-driven approach or learning individual preferences. However, there is limited knowledge of how well machine learning methods can estimate individual discrete choice rules under individual heterogeneity, especially in the context of challenges often experienced during preference elicitation. This study evaluates four machine learning models (multinomial logistic regression, generalized additive model, twinned neural network, and Gaussian process) with respect to their capacity to learn and predict five choice rules that are important in the behavioral and social sciences (linear strong utility, monotonic strong utility, ideal point, lexicographic semiorder, and multiattribute linear ballistic accumulator). Monte Carlo experiments were performed to assess model performance when increasing a) the number of attributes in the choice alternatives, b) the number of training choice sets, and c) the choice rule's determinism. The simulation results demonstrated that semi-parametric and non-parametric models generally outperform parametric models across all choice rules and experimental contexts. Model performance also generally improves by 6% to 96% and 0% to 55%, respectively, with an increase in training choice sets and choice rule determinism. A case study using real energy policy preference data was also conducted, where TNN performed best with a BIC of 13.351. This work demonstrated the viability and limitations of semi-parametric and non-parametric models in the context of policy-centric discrete choice modeling and showed how the choice task context should drive model selection.

BERT-based Models vs. Large Language Models for Low-Resource Named Entity Recognition: A Comparative Study on Marathi

Named Entity Recognition (NER) for low-resource languages such as Marathi remains a challenging task due to limited annotated resources and linguistic complexity. Although recent Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance across a wide range of natural language processing tasks, their effectiveness for language-specific NER in low-resource settings remains uncertain. In this study, we fine-tune MahaBERT-v2 on different variants of the MahaNER dataset and systematically compare the performance of these models with an existing MahaNER baseline and prominent general-purpose LLMs, including Gemini, LLaMA-3.3-70B, and Gemma models. All models are evaluated on a Marathi NER test dataset using standard metrics of precision, recall, and F1-score. The experimental results show that the fine-tuned MahaBERT-based models consistently outperform both the baseline and all evaluated LLMs, with the fine-tuned models achieving F1-scores ranging from 0.88 to 0.91, surpassing the existing MahaNER model (0.8843) and significantly exceeding the performance of LLM-based approaches, whose F1-scores range from 0.57 to 0.69. These findings demonstrate that task-specific, language-focused models trained on domain-relevant data remain more effective than general-purpose LLMs for Marathi NER, highlighting the continued importance of specialized architectures for low-resource language processing.

Continuous surrogates versus threshold Boolean networks for modeling Arabidopsis ISR gene regulation

Gene regulatory network modeling often requires balancing predictive accuracy and mechanistic interpretability. In this work, we compare continuous surrogate models and a discrete mechanistic model on the same \textit{Arabidopsis thaliana} induced systemic resistance (ISR) dataset, using both the raw continuous gene-expression measurements and their sign-binarized representation. The study considers eight defense-related genes measured over nine time points and evaluates two continuous predictors, Random Forest (RF) regression and a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), against a threshold Boolean network (TBN). The models are assessed using rolling-origin one-step prediction, recursive multi-step rollout, and interpretability analysis. RF achieved the best average one-step numerical performance in the continuous domain, with an MAE of 1.910 and an RMSE of 2.836, compared with 2.089 and 3.106 for the MLP. In the binary domain, the TBN obtained the best average one-step qualitative performance, with a binary accuracy of 0.550 and a Hamming distance of 3.600, compared with 0.500 and 4.000 for RF, and 0.495 and 4.040 for the MLP. In recursive rollout, the TBN exactly reproduced the observed binarized trajectory, while the MLP also showed near-perfect fidelity, with a trajectory binary accuracy of 0.986, and RF accumulated substantially larger deviation, with a trajectory binary accuracy of 0.708. These results highlight that local numerical accuracy and global qualitative dynamical fidelity are not necessarily aligned, and suggest that continuous surrogates and threshold Boolean networks should be viewed as complementary tools for modeling biological regulation.

When Less Is More: A Controlled Benchmark of Lightweight CNNs for Satellite Land-Cover Segmentation on DeepGlobe

High-resolution satellite imagery is the backbone of good land-cover classification, and without that, environmental monitoring, urban planning, and sustainable resource management all fall short. Deep learning architectures perform well in semantic segmentation, but the efficiency-accuracy trade-off across classical convolutional encoders is not well quantified under controlled, reproducible conditions. This study compares five architectures VGG16, MobileNetV2, InceptionV3, AlexNet, and CNN on the DeepGlobe Land Cover Classification dataset using three progressively optimized iterations to isolate regularisation, transfer learning, and architectural depth. To ensure performance differentials reflect architectural properties, all experiments used identical preprocessing, hyperparameter, and training protocols without data augmentation or class-imbalance correction. At 24.98 MB, MobileNetV2_v1 had the highest overall accuracy (0.7906) and mean Intersection over Union (0.4625), outperforming deeper alternatives like InceptionV3_v2 (125.17 MB, accuracy 0.7610) and VGG16_v2 (71.13 MB, accuracy 0.7653). Class-wise analysis showed strength in urban, agricultural, and water categories, but rangeland-barren confusion showed that architectural optimization alone cannot optimize spectrally similar minority classes. Strong spatial generalization and crisp boundary delineation were confirmed on held-out test imagery, validating operational applicability. These results show that lightweight, transfer-learned models can match or outperform deeper models in resource-constrained remote-sensing environments, enabling scalable land-cover mapping.

Time Series Network Utilization KPI Forecasting Using Advanced AI/ML Models

The rapid proliferation of data-intensive applications, cloud infrastructure, and IoT ecosystems has made proactive resource provisioning critical for maintaining optimal network performance. However, network administrators face a constant battle against capacity constraints, where traditional reactive approaches fail to accurately anticipate traffic fluctuations. This inability to foresee demand leads to costly over-provisioning, unexpected downtime, and degraded quality of service directly impacting operational budgets and business continuity. To achieve efficient capacity planning, accurate forecasting of bandwidth utilization is essential. This study addresses the challenge by evaluating a diverse spectrum of models including seasonal decomposition, Prophet, Random Forest, XGBoost, Support Vector Regression, and advanced deep learning architectures like bidirectional and Convolutional LSTMs - using a common interface dataset benchmarked across MAPE, NRMSE, and R-square metrics. Ultimately, this research delivers actionable insights into the trade-offs between model accuracy and computational efficiency, empowering engineers, operators, and business owners to select the optimal forecasting model for their specific infrastructure needs.

Now We Know? A Systematic Comparison of TerraMind and THOR

Benchmarks for Geospatial Foundation Models (GFMs) increasingly rank models by aggregate score, but such rankings obscure why models differ: how much of the gap is architecture, how much is decoder capacity, and how much is a use-case-specific artefact? This study addresses that gap through a controlled comparison of two GFMs developed under European Space Agency's $Φ$-lab with contrasting design philosophies: THOR, which introduces a compute-adaptive architecture supporting variable patch sizes and unifies Sentinel-1, -2, and -3 data at their native resolutions; and TerraMind, a multimodal generative GFM pretrained with a dual-scale token/pixel objective that enables any-to-any cross-modal generation (Thinking-in-Modalities) to infer missing sensors at inference time. Rather than reporting a single leaderboard, we investigate the axes along which the two architectures actually differ - patch size, decoder complexity, finetuning regime, input modality, and model scale - across ten use cases spanning segmentation and regression in diverse domains, including climate disaster response, methane leak detection, snow monitoring, or sea ice mapping. We find that architectural design choices - patch size and decoder type in particular - explain more performance variance than model identity itself, that the two models embody complementary investment strategies (pretraining-time scale for TerraMind versus inference-time tokenisation for THOR), and that correctly interpreting results requires dataset-level characterisation. The resulting picture is not a single winner but a set of hypotheses and a diagnostic ablation methodology that we expect to generalise to future GFMs beyond THOR and TerraMind.

Model of Models: When Does Emitting a Specialist Beat Attending, Adapting, or Tuning?

Given a task described by a few examples, how should a model be specialized to it? Four mechanisms are available -- zero-shot, in-context attention, test-time gradient adaptation, and emitting specialist weights from a hypernetwork -- yet the operating regime of the last is rarely mapped. We run the identical four-way comparison across six tasks spanning regression, generation, language modeling, reinforcement learning, and clinical and genomic classification, holding the specialist, the context, and (where we can) the training budget fixed. The clearest wins for emission are about cost at matched quality: it ties the state-of-the-art amortized tabular model (TabPFN) on clinical few-shot classification while emitting a reusable specialist instead of re-attending the support set per query, and reaches noise-floor shape generation with a $132$-float per-instance program. On few-shot sinusoid regression it is $2$--$3$ orders of magnitude below MAML at zero test-time gradient steps -- a margin that narrows to $\sim$$30\times$ but persists once training budgets are equalized. Emission cannot match in-context attention on high-dimensional sequence modeling: under matched-budget pre-training a one-pass adapter recovers only a minority of the in-context gain ($14.0\pm0.9\%$ at $5$M, $11.2\pm0.5\%$ at $15$M), and a LoRA-rank sweep shows this shortfall is a partial capacity limit -- capture climbs from $5\%$ to $21\%$ as rank grows but plateaus far below full recovery. Mechanism ablations confirm the emitted specialist is genuinely task-conditioned, not a memorized prior; and, more speculatively, emitted specialists compose in weight space -- interpolating two of them tracks the corresponding blend of their functions. We close with a falsifiable thesis, operationalized through a per-task resolution measure, bounding when each conditioning mechanism should be preferred.

A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Models for Long and Short-Term Forecasting of the Egyptian Stock Market: A Focus on EGX30

This study concentrates on predicting stock prices in the Egyptian market, focusing on the EGX30, an influential financial hub in the Middle East. While most research focuses on global stocks, there's a growing need to understand stock trends in developing countries like Egypt. The study compares different machine learning models for forecasting EGX30 trends, covering short and long-term predictions. Using historical EGX30 data, including metrics like root mean squared error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, and coefficient of determination, models like K-Nearest Neighbours, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, long short-term memory networks, and gated recurrent unit networks were evaluated. The goal is to determine the most effective models for EGX30 prediction, considering Egypt's unique market dynamics. Insights from this study aid investors in making informed decisions. Results show that the Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) outperformed the other models in the one-week, one-month, and two-months while the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model outperformed others in the one-day predictions, highlighting their usefulness in predictive analysis for financial markets. The study also showed the importance of using the ensemble techniques, especially in the long-term predictions which proved better results reaching 5 times the GRU in the two-month predictions. Additionally, the study notes the surprisingly good performance of K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) on long-term predictions, suggesting its enduring relevance and potential for future applications in the fintech domains.

Beyond Coordinate Gauge: An Audited Protocol for Detecting Donor-Specific Functional Fingerprints after Neural Collapse

Independently trained neural networks have no shared neuron-index reference frame, so comparing them requires accounting for coordinate freedom. Neural Collapse sharpens this problem: networks converge toward a shared, low-dimensional geometry, raising the question of whether trajectory-specific functional variation remains distinguishable after convergence. We distinguish three claims - detectability, transplantability, and causal persistence - and address the first. Using five independently trained networks reconstructing Neural Collapse on MNIST, we apply a verified affine-correct alignment mapping donor heads into recipient coordinates. Donor-specific functional fingerprints remain distinguishable after recipient-level baseline correction: all 20 ordered donor-recipient pairs are correctly identified, with an exact permutation p=0.0083, robust to a leakage audit. These findings establish detectability under the test used here, but not transplantability or causal persistence. The study shows how alignment, ambiguity diagnostics, and leakage control combine to test cross-network variation in a controlled setting; whether this generalizes beyond it is open.

Texture Representations in Deep Vision Models: Comparing CNNs, Vision Transformers, and Human Perception

In computational vision science, Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have emerged as a popular model of biological vision because of the alignment they can exhibit with neural and behavioral data in humans and animals. However, it remains unclear to what extent this alignment persists for visual tasks that extend beyond the canonical object recognition paradigm based on well defined semantic content. In this study, we diverge from the common object-centric view by focusing on another aspect of vision: texture perception. We consider textures of different complexity generated with three different algorithms from the same source images. Using a rank-based statistic, we quantify the information encoded in the internal representations of a CNN and three Vision Transformers (ViTs), and we compare the similarity of these representations to those inferred from human psychophysics data. We find that the representation of textures is aligned in different ViTs, but not between the ViTs and the CNN; that ViTs form similar representations for textures of different complexity; that human performance in recognizing textures can be better predicted from ViTs representations rather than CNN representations. Taken together, these results suggest that ViTs may capture more faithfully than CNNs how texture patterns are visually processed by humans, and that the representations of texture stimuli in computational models may be driven by the network architecture.

When Do Foundation Models Pay Off? A Break-Even Analysis of Pretrained Time Series Forecasters

Deploying a time series foundation model requires GPU infrastructure, engineering overhead, and carries no guarantee of improvement over XGBoost. We provide the first systematic break-even analysis answering when this investment pays off. Across 30 benchmark datasets, we compare zero-shot and LoRA fine-tuned foundation models (Chronos, Moirai, Lag-Llama) against classical baselines (Naive, ETS, ARIMA, XGBoost) at six training set sizes from 2% to 100% of available data. Foundation models outperform classical methods at every evaluated training fraction on 15 of 30 datasets -- GPU deployment is unconditionally justified on these regardless of data volume. On 6 datasets, classical methods surpass zero-shot foundation models with as little as 2% of training data (21-2,768 samples); on the remaining 9, break-even ranges from 24 to 8,361 samples. One robust deployment rule requires no model training: if n_train < 700 and seasonality is non-negligible, use FM zero-shot and skip fine-tuning -- this resolves 10 of 30 deployment decisions immediately. Contrary to common practice, LoRA fine-tuning can actively degrade performance on short series. We operationalise these findings as a two-step decision framework -- compute dataset length and seasonality strength, run a brief 5-10% pilot only if needed -- enabling practitioners to make the FM-versus-classical decision before committing to full infrastructure. Four dataset features motivate mechanistic hypotheses for the remaining cases, though reliable automated prediction at this benchmark scale remains an open problem. Code, benchmark, and decision tools are available at https://github.com/nicolaisi/fm-breakeven.

Heads, Not Backbones: Output Heads Dominate Architectures on Fat-Tailed Returns

In a deep forecasting pipeline for fat-tailed financial returns at short horizons, which matters more - the backbone architecture or the output head? We compare four modern backbones (TimesNet, DLinear, N-BEATS, iTransformer) under three output heads: a point head, a single-Gaussian density head, and a Gaussian mixture density head with K=4 components. On S and P 500 monthly log-returns (1871-2023) under anchored walk-forward validation, the three heads form a strict gradient: switching from point to Gaussian improves CRPS by about 1.3 percent; switching from Gaussian to mixture adds a further about 2.4 percent. Switching between backbones, in contrast, changes CRPS by less than 1.5 percent on the point-head row and on the backbone-mean axis; density-head backbone spread is larger (up to 5.1 percent on the h=1 Gaussian row, driven by N-BEATS) but the head gradient (3.7 percentage points) still dominates. The Model Confidence Set on squared errors does not exclude any of the 12 variants at the 5 percent level: the head separates them only on distributional metrics (CRPS, pinball, coverage), not on squared error. The mixture head incremental value over a single Gaussian is largest in the highest-volatility regimes (13.9 percent in 1970s stagflation at h=12), confirming the mixture captures tail risk beyond what a unimodal Gaussian can express. The picture is horizon-dependent: the head dominates at short horizons, but at long horizons (h >= 6) the backbone re-takes the lead - an h-split we document against classical baselines (section 5.1). We conclude that on fat-tailed returns at short horizons, the head dominates the backbone, and the mixture distribution adds genuine value over a single Gaussian during crisis periods when risk-management decisions actually matter.

Performance and Interpretability of Convolutional, Transformer, and Hybrid Deep Learning Models in Colorectal Histology Classification

Deep learning has become an important tool in computational pathology, enabling automated analysis of histopathological images. While convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have traditionally dominated this field, transformer-based and hybrid architectures have recently demonstrated promising performance. However, comprehensive comparisons of these approaches for colorectal histopathology remain limited. This study evaluated twelve ImageNet-pretrained CNN, transformer, and hybrid architectures using the Kather colorectal histopathology dataset containing 5,000 image tiles from eight tissue classes. All models were trained using a standardized transfer-learning and fine-tuning protocol and assessed using multiple performance metrics, including accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, F1-score, ROC-AUC, Cohen's kappa, and Matthews correlation coefficient. All evaluated models achieved high classification performance, with accuracies ranging from 93.2% to 97.1%. EVA-02 achieved the highest overall performance (97.1% accuracy, 97.0% F1-score), closely followed by ViT-B/16. Among CNNs, ResNet34 and ConvNeXt-Tiny demonstrated highly competitive performance, achieving accuracies of 96.4% and 96.3%, respectively. Transformer architectures generally produced the strongest results across evaluation metrics, although the performance gap between the best transformer and CNN models was relatively small. Per-class analysis showed consistently strong classification performance across all tissue categories, with Complex Stroma representing the most challenging class. Overall, transformer-based architectures achieved the highest predictive performance, whereas modern CNNs provided a favorable balance between accuracy and model complexity. These findings provide a comprehensive benchmark of major deep learning paradigms for colorectal histopathology classification.

Measurement noise limits the advantage of nonlinear models over linear models in biomedical prediction

On biomedical tabular data, flexible models such as deep networks, gradient-boosted trees, and kernel methods are repeatedly matched or beaten by linear and logistic regression given the same features. The usual reaction is to treat this as a model-side shortfall, to be fixed with more data, a better architecture, or tuning, on the assumption that the nonlinear structure is there and the model has failed to capture it. We argue that these fixes cannot help when the binding limit is the measurement rather than the model, as it frequently is in biomedicine. Additive noise blurs the population-optimal predictor, and because blurring removes a function's fine, rapidly varying detail before its broad shape, it erases nonlinear structure faster than linear structure. A degree-$k$ interaction is attenuated by the $k$-th power of feature reliability, while the linear part is attenuated only once. At the reliabilities typical of biomedical measurement, the nonlinear advantage can vanish even when the underlying biology is strongly nonlinear, and what the noise removes cannot be recovered by a larger cohort or a more flexible model, only by better measurement. The nonlinearity is hidden, not absent, and a tie between linear and flexible models is not by itself a verdict on the biology. These pieces are classical, drawn from measurement-error statistics, psychometrics, and Gaussian analysis, and we assemble them into an exact excess-risk identity. Measurement reliability is one of three conditions, alongside sample size and feature representation, that must align for a flexible model to help, and together they leave only a narrow window that most biomedical tasks fall outside. Across 140 UK Biobank tasks, the gap between flexible and linear models, where it exists, carries the predicted noise signature, and the three conditions can be separated by intervention but not by a benchmark alone.

Attention Alignment Between Humans and Vision-Language Models

Visual perception depends on top-down goals and bottom-up sensory mechanisms. Vision-language models implement both, allowing us to treat each component as a separable hypothesis about what drives where we look. We compared spatial attention maps from six vision-language models against human fixation heatmaps recorded on 200 images during two tasks (general description and social captioning). The six models spanned a 2$\times$2 factorial of CNN vs.\ ViT encoders crossed with LSTM vs.\ Transformer decoders, plus Molmo 7B-D and Qwen3.5 9B. We found that both decoder and encoder architecture shaped alignment, but decoder choice dominated. LSTM vs.\ Transformer decoders increased alignment by 40--50 percentage points (80--87\% vs.\ 40--59\% of the human noise ceiling). In contrast, CNN vs.\ ViT encoders contributed a secondary 5--20 point advantage depending on decoder family, with CNN-LSTM the most aligned model overall (85--87\%). Despite their alignment advantage, LSTM-decoder attention maps were spatially diffuse and minimally task-differentiated; ViT-Transformer, the weakest in alignment, showed the sharpest spatial concentration and strongest task differentiation. A hemispatial-neglect simulation confirmed that ablating attention impacted LSTM decoders more than Transformer decoders. In an exploratory extension using TRIBE-simulated synthetic neural responses, fixation alignment and neural relevance dissociate: CNN-Transformer attention maps better predicted synthetic brain activity despite lower fixation alignment, with attention maps best predicting early visual cortex. Together, top-down and bottom-up components trade off what they predict in behavioral and synthetic neural data.

Trusting Right Predictions for Wrong Reasons: A LIME Based Analysis of Deep Learning Interpretability in Lung Cancer Diagnosis

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality, with approximately 2.5 million new cases and 1.8 million deaths annually, making reliable diagnosis a clinical priority. Although deep learning models have achieved strong performance in lung cancer classification, evaluation has largely focused on predictive accuracy, leaving their decision-making processes insufficiently examined. This study compares three architecturally distinct models: a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), a pretrained ResNet50, and a Vision Transformer (ViT), trained on the IQ-OTH/NCCD lung cancer CT dataset. Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME) were applied to investigate model reasoning. In addition to standard performance metrics, a dual-correlation framework was introduced to measure both prediction agreement and explanation agreement across model pairs. All three models achieved strong classification performance, with ResNet50 attaining 98.61% accuracy, CNN 97.91%, and ViT 93.75%, while all achieved ROC-AUC scores of 0.99. Prediction correlations exceeded 0.99 across all model pairs, indicating highly consistent outputs. However, LIME explanation correlations remained below 0.26, revealing substantial differences in the image regions used to reach those predictions. Analysis of misclassified samples further identified a consistent spatial pattern: incorrect predictions were associated with attention outside the lung parenchyma, whereas correct predictions focused primarily within lung regions. These findings demonstrate that prediction agreement is a poor proxy for reasoning consistency, and that interpretability evaluation must be treated as an independent validation criterion alongside predictive performance in clinical AI systems.

Machine Learning and the Random Walk Puzzle: Forecasting the CAD/USD Exchange Rate with Expanding Window Evaluation and SHAP Interpretability

This study examines whether machine learning (ML) models can outperform the naive random walk benchmark in forecasting the monthly USD/CAD exchange rate. Using daily data from the Bank of Canada spanning January 2017 to May 2026, resampled into 113 monthly observations, five ML models are evaluated: linear regression, random forest, gradient boosting, XGBoost, and AdaBoost. These models are benchmarked against the naive random walk model and exponential smoothing with Holt-Winters seasonality (ETS). All models are evaluated using an expanding-window framework to maintain strict out-of-sample integrity, and forecast-accuracy differences are assessed using the Diebold-Mariano (DM) test. Structural break detection identifies four significant breakpoints in the series, corresponding to the escalation of the US-China trade war in 2018, the COVID-19 economic recovery in 2020, the peak of the Bank of Canada rate-hiking cycle in 2022, and the start of the Bank of Canada rate-cutting cycle in 2024. SHAP, or Shapley Additive Explanations, analysis is applied to interpret the drivers of the best-performing ML model. The results show that the naive random walk model remains a formidable benchmark. Linear regression is the only model that statistically outperforms the naive random walk model, with a DM statistic of 3.0585 and a p value of 0.0071, whereas the ML ensemble models show only marginal differences. Random Forest with an expanding-window framework achieves the lowest MAPE of 1.17 percent among all models except the random walk. SHAP analysis confirms that short-term lags, particularly lag1 and lag2, and recent rolling means dominate predictions, consistent with the near-random-walk behavior of exchange rates.

Performance Analysis of YOLOv11 and YOLOv8 for Mixed Traffic Object Detection under Adverse Weather Conditions in Developing Countries

In modern vehicular systems, robust performance under harsh conditions has become a critical problem of autonomous driving. Our study delivers a comprehensive evaluation of the newest iteration of the YOLO series, which is YOLOv11 Nano architecture benchmarked against the widely adopted YOLOv8 Nano as a baseline on a custom fused dataset that combines the Indian Driving Dataset (IDD) [1] and Berkeley Deep Drive Dataset (BDD100K) [2]. We have analyzed the trade-offs among detection accuracy, inference speed, and computational efficiency in high-entropy scenarios involving dense mixed traffic, rain, and low-light conditions. Specifically, YOLOv11n achieves a mean Average Precision (mAP@50) of 46.6%, with a notable 3.2% improvement in Precision over the baseline, effectively reducing false positives in cluttered scenes. Furthermore, the proposed model exhibits enhanced energy efficiency, requiring 22% fewer FLOPs (6.3G vs. 8.1G) while maintaining real-time inference speed of 70.9 FPS on a Tesla T4 GPU, offering an optimal trade-off for safety-critical edge deployment.

Differences in Detection: Explainability Where it Matters

We propose Differences in Detection (DnD), an intuitive method to compare two object detection models. Based on the same matching algorithm, it complements the standard metrics of mean Average Precision ($mAP$) and TIDE error analysis with the ability to compare two models directly. More specifically, we calculate the intersection of ground truth labels that are recognized by both models, followed by the corresponding difference sets and the complement set of ground truth labels that are missed by both models. The resulting comparison is more direct and intuitive than a comparison of independent summary statistics. It reveals individual and shared mistakes and becomes particularly interesting when combined with error types. In this case, the differences in detection errors can be analyzed naturally in a standard confusion matrix. While valuable in itself, we believe that one of the best applications of DnD is to guide explainability methods such as ODAM towards metric-relevant examples, grounded in structured subsets. The code for our method is available here: https://github.com/JohannesTheo/differences-in-detection

KODA: Contrastive Representation Comparison and Alignment for Vision-Language Foundation Models

Vision-language foundation models such as CLIP and SigLIP provide widely used representations for multimodal learning systems. While these models are typically compared through downstream performance, such evaluations often do not explain how their representations differ structurally. In this work, we study this problem through the task of Contrastive Embedding Clustering: identifying sample subsets that are weakly clustered under one representation but strongly clustered under another. We propose \emph{Kernel Optimization for Discrepancy Analysis (KODA)}, a kernel-based framework for contrastive representation comparison and alignment. KODA constructs unified multimodal kernels through modality-wise kernel composition and formulates discrepancy discovery as a constrained optimization problem that searches for coherent structures in one representation while suppressing coherence in a reference representation. This yields interpretable discrepancy directions associated with specific sample subsets and modality interactions. To scale KODA to large vision-language datasets, we develop randomized low-dimensional approximations of joint kernels using random projections, including Random Fourier Features for shift-invariant kernels. Empirically, KODA identifies consistent and interpretable discrepancy structures across vision-language representations and provides sample subsets for representation alignment. The code is available at https://github.com/yokiwuuu/KODA.

Comparative Evaluation of Deep Learning Models for Fake Image Detection

The growing sophistication of GAN-based image manipulation presents significant challenges for digital forensics. This study compares the performance of four pretrained CNN architectures including VGG16, ResNet50, EfficientNetB0, and XceptionNet for fake image detection using a unified preprocessing and training pipeline. A dataset of real and manipulated images was processed through resizing, normalization, and augmentation to address class imbalance and improve generalization. Models were evaluated using Accuracy, Precision, Recall, F1-score, and ROC-AUC. VGG16 achieved the highest accuracy at 91%, with XceptionNet, ResNet50, and EfficientNetB0 each reaching 90%. EfficientNetB0 showed stronger sensitivity to fake images but reduced reliability on real samples, reflecting imbalance-driven bias. Limitations include dataset imbalance, overfitting, and limited interpretability, which affect cross-domain robustness. The study provides a reproducible baseline and underscores the need for balanced datasets, advanced augmentation, and fairness-aware training to develop reliable fake image detection systems.

Cross-Model Consistency of Feature Importance in Electrospinning: Separating Robust from Model-Dependent Features

Electrospinning is a highly sensitive fabrication process in which small variations in operating parameters can significantly influence fiber morphology and material performance. Machine learning (ML) methods are increasingly employed to model these process-structure relationships and to identify the relative importance of processing variables. However, most existing studies rely on a single ML model, implicitly assuming that the resulting feature importance is robust and reproducible. In this study, the consistency of feature importance across multiple ML model families was systematically evaluated using a curated dataset of 96 polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) electrospinning experiments. Twenty-one ML models representing linear, tree-based, kernel-based, neural network, and instance-based approaches were trained and compared. To provide a unified interpretability framework, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values were used to calculate feature importance consistently across all models. A rank-based statistical analysis was then performed to quantify inter-model agreement and assess the robustness of parameter rankings. The results demonstrate that predictive performance and interpretive reliability are fundamentally distinct properties. Although several models achieved comparable predictive accuracy, substantial differences were observed in their feature importance rankings. Solution concentration emerged as the most robust and consistently influential parameter (variability = 0), whereas flow rate and applied voltage exhibited high ranking variability (variability > 0.9), indicating strong model dependence. These findings suggest that feature importance derived from a single ML model may be unreliable, particularly for small experimental datasets, and highlight the importance of cross-model validation for achieving trustworthy interpretation in ML-assisted electrospinning research.