Metamorphic Testing for Clinical ML Models: A Framework Proposal and Pilot Study

Machine learning models for clinical prediction tasks, such as in-hospital mortality and sepsis onset, routinely achieve high AUROC scores. However, AUROC measures ranking performance rather than clinical sensibility. A model may rank patients correctly overall while predicting a lower mortality risk when a patient's SOFA score worsens, contradicting established medical knowledge. This paper proposes applying metamorphic testing (MT) to clinical machine learning models to evaluate behavioral correctness without requiring ground-truth labels for individual predictions. We design a catalog of 12 candidate metamorphic relations (MRs) for three ICU prediction tasks using the MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV datasets, with each MR grounded in an authoritative clinical guideline. We further propose a five-layer validation strategy to ensure that MRs are clinically sound before deployment. As a feasibility study, we evaluate the approach on the UCI Heart Disease dataset. Although the three clinical models achieve strong predictive performance (AUROC = 0.849-0.900), they exhibit MT violation rates ranging from 27% to 87% across five pilot MRs. An injected-fault experiment further shows that a sign-negation error in a blood pressure feature remains undetected by AUROC but increases the MT violation rate by 31-67 percentage points. These findings suggest that metamorphic testing provides a valuable complement to conventional performance metrics for assessing the behavioral correctness of clinical prediction models.

Test Case Prioritization for DNNs via Neural Collapse Instability

With the widespread deployment of deep neural networks (DNNs) in safety-critical domains, reducing the cost of model validation under limited testing budgets has become increasingly important. Existing test case prioritization techniques often rely on single-checkpoint confidence signals derived from output probabilities. However, DNNs can be confidently wrong, and the confidence margin between the predicted and competing classes is frequently small, which weakens early fault discovery. To address this limitation, we propose a Neural-Collapse-Inspired Prioritization (NCIP) framework that replaces absolute confidence with cross-checkpoint prediction variability in the terminal training regime, where model geometry becomes highly structured. NCIP introduces two key components. First, it selects an NC-guided representative subset of training checkpoints using an equiangularity score of classifier weights, quantified as the standard deviation of pairwise cosine similarities among class weight vectors. Second, it prioritizes test inputs by their prediction variability across the selected checkpoints, surfacing boundary-adjacent and failure-prone samples that are unstable under checkpoint-induced decision boundary shifts. Extensive experiments across multiple datasets and architectures show that NCIP achieves strong performance in early fault discovery compared with competitive baselines, with 1.5 to 16.6 percent RAUC-ALL gains and 4.9 to 20.6 percent RAUC-500 gains under the same testing budget. NCIP further attains the best average performance across all dataset-model pairs.

Explainable AI for Biodiversity Monitoring and Ecological Image Analysis

Artificial intelligence is transforming biodiversity monitoring by enabling automated analysis of ecological imagery collected from camera traps, drones, satellites, underwater platforms, and other sensing systems. These tools can expand the scale and speed of conservation assessments, yet many computer vision models remain difficult to inspect, making it challenging to determine whether predictions are based on ecologically meaningful signals or on spurious correlations, sampling biases, and other artifacts that may undermine conservation decisions. We argue that explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) should become a standard component of ecological model validation because conservation practitioners increasingly depend on understanding not only whether a model is accurate, but why it is accurate. We provide practical guidance for applying XAI to three common ecological computer vision tasks: image classification, object detection, and image segmentation. To illustrate how XAI can support ecological model auditing, refinement, and deployment, we present two case studies using aerial imagery: harbor seal detection and cetacean anatomical segmentation. These examples demonstrate how explanation methods can identify biologically meaningful cues, reveal false positives driven by background and shape confounds, uncover edge and occlusion effects, and guide data collection, augmentation, and retraining strategies. More broadly, they show how explainability can help assess whether model reasoning aligns with ecological understanding. We conclude by identifying key challenges and opportunities. By making model behavior more transparent and scientifically interrogable, XAI can help ensure that AI-supported ecological evidence is more reliable, understandable, and actionable for biodiversity conservation.

Silent Failures in Physics-Informed Neural Networks: Parameter Poisoning and the Limits of Loss-Based Validation

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) embed governing equations in their loss function, enabling mesh-free solutions to partial differential equations. Low training loss is treated as evidence that the learned solution is physically correct. This paper shows that assumption breaks down when encoded physics are incorrect. By perturbing PDE parameters before training, a setting we describe as physics parameter poisoning or parameter misspecification, we produce models that train to low loss but give incorrect answers; we treat the perturbation schedule as sensitivity analysis rather than only as a security threat, and none of our claims requires an adversary. Achieving low residual loss does not discriminate accurate from inaccurate solutions: poisoned models reach losses at or below the clean baseline yet differ by large margins, so driving the residual down is not evidence of physical accuracy. Across three PDE systems (Burgers equation, Navier-Stokes cavity, and convection-diffusion), poisoned models match or beat the clean-model training loss while their solutions differ by up to 71% in the fixed sweep and up to 128% under adversarial search; at Cavity Re=400 the poisoned loss falls below the clean baseline. We define a detection difficulty ratio R (solution error divided by training loss) to summarize how invisible the corruption is, though cross-PDE comparison is complicated by differences in loss scale. We test six candidate defenses, none of which reliably detects corruption across all regimes. We propose a post-hoc defense: sweeping the PDE residual loss across parameter values without retraining. The loss minimum recovers the true training parameter without external data, and generalizes across all three PDE systems. The effect holds across five network architectures (8.7K to 133K parameters), is bidirectional, and is confirmed across multiple random seeds.

Model Validation of Agentic AI Systems: A POMDP-Based Framework for Belief-State, Forecast, and Policy Validation

Agentic artificial intelligence systems introduce a new class of model risk. Unlike traditional predictive models, autonomous agents continuously acquire information, form beliefs regarding latent states of the environment, generate forecasts, select actions, and adapt their behavior over time. Existing validation methodologies focus primarily on predictive accuracy and therefore provide limited insight into the quality of the underlying decision process. This paper proposes a model validation framework for agentic AI based on Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). The framework decomposes autonomous decision making into information, beliefs, forecasts, actions, and utility, allowing each component to be validated independently. Large language models (LLMs) are formalized as approximate Bayesian filtering operators, and a model-risk taxonomy is developed encompassing state-space, filtering, forecast, policy, utility-specification, and parameter risks. The model risk validation methodology is demonstrated through a portfolio-management case study in which an agent infers latent market regimes from market and macroeconomic information, generates belief-conditioned forecasts, and constructs portfolios using a Black--Litterman framework. Empirical validation combines performance analysis, belief calibration diagnostics, coverage tests, ablation studies, and parameter-sensitivity analysis. The results indicate that latent-state inference contributes independently to decision quality and that the principal conclusions remain robust across a broad range of parameter values. The principal contribution of the paper is a practical framework for extending established model risk management concepts to autonomous AI systems and providing a rigorous foundation for their validation, governance, and monitoring.