Causal Local States: Scalable Simultaneous Causal Network Inference and Forecasting for Dynamical Systems

Machine learning methods predict many real-world systems with remarkable accuracy, but they are typically treated as black boxes that offer no insight into which interactions drive the dynamics. Causal discovery methods reconstruct the interaction network from observational data, but without regard to whether the inferred structure supports prediction. Existing approaches combining both tasks rely on a single global hyperparameter, such as a causal threshold or a fixed neighborhood size, which cannot recover the structure of heterogeneous systems. Here we introduce causal local states (CLS), a framework that simultaneously infers an approximate Granger-causal interaction network and forecasts the system dynamics. For each node independently, we select the smallest set of neighbors that allows a predictive model to forecast the node near-optimally, and the resulting neighborhoods are then combined for a forecast of the full system. On three benchmarks of increasing difficulty, we achieve reconstruction of the underlying networks with high fidelity and forecasts on par with a model that is supplied with the true network, providing a step toward explainable and scalable forecasting of complex systems.

Directed Graph Topology Inference via Graph Filter Identification

We address the problem of inferring a directed network from nodal measurements generated by linear diffusion dynamics on the sought graph. Observations are modeled as the outputs of a graph convolutional filter, i.e., a polynomial (with unknown coefficients) of a local diffusion graph-shift operator encoding the latent graph topology, excited with an ensemble of independent graph signals with arbitrarily-correlated nodal components. Unlike prior efforts that considered undirected graphs and white signal excitations, here the graph-shift operator and the observations' covariance matrix are not simultaneously diagonalizable. In this challenging context, we first rely on measurements of the output signals along with prior statistical information on the inputs to identify the diffusion filter. Such system identification problem involves solving a system of quadratic matrix equations, which we show is identifiable under spectral-diversity assumptions on the input covariances. For algorithmic purposes we recast it as a smooth quadratic minimization subject to Stiefel manifold constraints. Subsequent identification of the network topology given the graph filter estimate boils down to finding a sparse and structurally admissible shift that commutes with the given filter, thus, forcing the latter to be a polynomial in the sought graph-shift operator. A joint graph filter and topology identification algorithm is also proposed, which alternates between the aforementioned steps in a mutually reinforcing fashion to offer improved sample complexity. Numerical tests corroborate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms in recovering synthetic digraphs and real-data case studies, and illustrate their potential utility on urban mobility analyses as well as portfolio optimization.