NMINE: Normalized Mutual Information Neural Estimation

Mutual information is a general measure of statistical dependence that captures both linear and nonlinear relationships between random variables. For continuous and multidimensional variables For continuous multidimensional variables, mutual information must be estimated from samples. Because mutual information is unbounded, its values are not directly comparable across datasets, dimensions, or applications. Normalized mutual information addresses this limitation by converting mutual information into a normalized dependency score. Recent work has demonstrated the practical value of normalized mutual information in applications such as molecular dynamics {arXiv:2405.04980} and interpretable machine learning {arXiv:2409.16768}, but existing estimators remain sensitive to dimensionality and numerical stability {arXiv:2410.07642}. In this paper, we propose a fully neural normalized mutual information estimator for continuous variables. The proposed approach combines a MINE-based neural mutual information estimator {arXiv:1801.04062} with MI-NEE-inspired neural marginal entropy estimators {arXiv:1905.12957}. Mutual information is estimated using the Donsker--Varadhan representation, while marginal entropies are estimated by learning the divergence between each marginal distribution and a uniform reference distribution, from which entropy is recovered. The resulting estimator provides a neural alternative to k-nearest-neighbor-based normalized mutual information estimation {arXiv:2405.04980}. Experiments on Gaussian data from one to eight dimensions show that the proposed estimator improves accuracy over a KSG-based normalized mutual information baseline. These results indicate that neural estimation is a promising direction for normalized dependency measurement in continuous multidimensional settings.

The Simulacrum: Decision-Theoretic Pretraining for Near-Optimal Time-Series Forecasting and Inference

We introduce a neural network-based framework for learning time series estimators through a process we term decision-theoretic pretraining. Analysts specify a generative world, a distribution over data-generating processes, and a target decision objective. A neural network trained on stratified simulations from this world approximates the corresponding optimal decision rule, yielding a neural estimator that provides forecasts, parameter estimates, predictive intervals, or model-selection for zero-shot inference on previously unseen time series. The joint specification of the generative world and objective enables the estimators to directly approximate process-level, finite-sample properties: near-optimal risk, bias control, minimax performance, and uniform calibration. Our experiments demonstrate that these neural estimators can outperform traditional baselines such as maximum likelihood estimation and model selection via AICc, for the same model structural model classes. Furthermore, even when trained purely on simulations of structural models, they achieve competitive or state-of-the-art forecasting accuracy on major real-world benchmarks, compared with statistical, neural or large pre-trained models. We illustrate the framework by addressing two longstanding challenges: finite-sample bias and miscalibration in AR(p) models, and the forecast combination puzzle. These applications highlight the approach's main advantage: its ability to approximate solutions to analytically intractable or computationally prohibitive time series problems, including complex structural equations or optimality criteria. Ultimately, by enabling explicit control over decision-theoretic trade-offs, the framework equips analysts with highly efficient estimation tools tailored to their specific analytical needs.

DIPHINE: Diffusion-based $Φ$-ID Neural Estimator

Uncovering the true informational architecture of real-world complex systems requires disentangling how their components uniquely store, redundantly share, and synergistically integrate information over time. Integrated Information Decomposition ($Φ$ID) is a framework for decomposing the information dynamics of multivariate systems into sixteen non-overlapping atoms that characterize redundant, unique, and synergistic modes of information storage, transfer, and integration. Existing methods to compute $Φ$ID are restricted to Gaussian or discrete systems, preventing its application to continuous non-Gaussian dynamical systems. We address this limitation by proposing DIPHINE (Diffusion-based $Φ$-ID Neural Estimator), the first neural estimator that leverages score-based diffusion models to jointly estimate all the mutual information terms required by $Φ$ID from a single amortized network, recovering the sixteen atoms through Möbius inversion. We provide a theoretical analysis of error propagation through the inversion, showing that the Jacobian of the mapping from mutual informations to atoms is integer-valued and that the synergy-to-synergy atom is provably the hardest to estimate. We demonstrate accurate recovery of ground-truth atoms on synthetic benchmarks, superior performance compared to established mutual information estimators, and the ability to extract physiologically interpretable information-dynamic structure on an application involving real data without any distributional assumptions.