Online adaptation can help edge time-series forecasting under distribution drift, but its measured benefit is sensitive to evaluation choices. We study six public multivariate streams, including building-sensor and smart-meter data, under a leakage-free streaming protocol. We identify two additional sources of comparison bias. First, the warmup budget of the static baseline has a two-sided effect: insufficient warmup undertrains the baseline, whereas excessive warmup can degrade its pre-drift generalization. Across six dataset-backbone settings, the estimated adaptation benefit changes by 3.0 to 18.8 percentage points (pp) over the 1,000-20,000-step warmup range. Second, comparing SGD with momentum (SGD+m) and Adam at a shared default learning rate conflates optimizer quality with rate sensitivity. We select both the warmup budget and each optimizer's online rate using a held-out pre-drift validation slice without accessing test data. Under this validation-only procedure, Adam outperforms SGD+m in 310 of 360 evaluated cells, while 4 Adam cells remain below the static baseline. We further characterize accuracy against adaptation-state memory and A100-measured per-update latency for full, head-only, and calibration-based adaptation. In the evaluated PatchTST frontier settings, several parameter-efficient variants are nondominated on the adaptation-state-memory axis. Smart-meter analyses also show that reported gains depend on meter-selection rules. These findings support a validation-only commissioning procedure, while target-device latency and energy remain to be measured. Code, data, and all reported numbers: https://github.com/keiotakmin/tsf-edge-adaptation.
Prasen R. Nuthanakaluva, Nava K. Gaddamcs.LG stat.ML
Forecast combination is a reliable way to improve predictive performance when several forecasting models are available. Simple aggregation rules such as the mean, median, trimmed mean, inverse-loss weighting, and exponential weighting are often strong baselines, but their relative performance can vary across datasets, forecast horizons, deployment settings, and levels of disagreement among base forecasters. We develop Generalized Gibbs Ensemble Weighting (GGEW), a probabilistic framework that treats forecasting models as experts and assigns ensemble weights using a Gibbs-style exponential transformation of normalized predictive loss. The framework extends this basic weighting rule through numerical stabilization, diversity-aware score corrections, and online hyperparameter adaptation. GGEW produces a family of related methods, including Stable Gibbs weighting, Directional Gibbs-NCL, and Symmetric Gibbs-NCL. These variants share one core algorithm and differ only in the score used inside the exponential weighting rule. For sequential deployment, we adopt a UCB-style bandit mechanism, called online Local-UCB, to adapt the learning rate, diversity strength, and Gibbs variant without evaluating the full hyperparameter grid at every prediction step. We evaluate GGEW on official M4 competition forecast submissions and external rolling-origin deployment experiments using Monash Traffic Hourly, Electricity Hourly, and Solar Weekly datasets. Results suggest that Gibbs-style adaptive weighting is a useful and competitive tool across several benchmark settings, although its relative performance varies across datasets, forecast horizons, deployment protocols, and forecast disagreement groups. The contribution is not a universal dominance claim, but a framework and empirical study motivating further investigation of when adaptive Gibbs-style forecast combination is useful.
Jonghyuk Park, Alex Lascarides, Subramanian Ramamoorthycs.AI
This paper describes a neurosymbolic architecture for learning to assemble novel structures using evidence from embodied conversations and task demonstrations. We focus on scenarios where an agent encounters, after deployment, semantic constraints on structures--in other words, constraints as to which part types and features make valid structures--that were not available during training, and where it is initially unaware of the relevant structure and component part concepts. The agent must acquire and exploit such knowledge through user interactions while attempting assembly. We study this setting in a simulated toy truck assembly domain, learning from symbolic evidence encoded in natural language and from dense visual observations. Our experiments show that communicating semantic constraints through natural language (e.g., "dump trucks have a dumper") yields more data-efficient online adaptation than relying only on task demonstrations and/or only naming the parts through natural language.
Dichen Li, Bo Ai, Nico Bohlinger +3cs.RO cs.AI cs.LG
Humans readily adapt their movements as their bodies change through aging, injury, or load carrying, but learning-based robot policies often break when hardware properties shift. We introduce an online embodiment adaptation framework for quadrupedal locomotion that infers embodiment parameters from short interaction histories and conditions control on the inferred hardware state. Our method pairs a generalist policy trained under embodiment randomization with a lightweight adaptation module that identifies physical changes within half a second. We evaluate two representative forms of embodiment variation: joint-range constraints and trunk-mass changes, corresponding to joint-level kinematic degradation and body-level dynamic variation. In simulation, the module accurately estimates these changes and enables closed-loop control that substantially outperforms policies conditioned directly on interaction history. On a real Unitree Go2 robot, our system maintains stable locomotion under severe instances of the evaluated changes, including a fully locked leg and a 5 kg payload, where non-adaptive methods fail. These results demonstrate the practicality of explicit online embodiment identification for rapid adaptation to joint-limit and payload-mass changes, and provide a step toward handling broader forms of uncertain, degraded, or changing robot hardware.
Memory is central to long-horizon LLM agents, yet existing memory systems primarily preserve interaction content rather than modeling which agents can be trusted and under what conditions. This limitation is particularly important in multi-agent systems, where a central model may be unable to directly verify plausible or correlated peer responses. We introduce $Σ$-Mem, an online reliability memory that records historical competence evidence for individual peers and peer relationship evidence across the peer set. Both forms of evidence are maintained as real symmetric states and updated from post-decision correctness feedback. By Weyl's inequality, the spectral change caused by each event-level update is bounded, enabling stable online adaptation without retraining the underlying models. $Σ$-Mem provides a general write-and-read interface: the same memory can be used for residual steering of a central model, response-free peer routing, or reliability-weighted voting. Across five Qwen-family models, $Σ$-Mem adapts to counterfactual reliability shifts and generalizes to unseen peers and task domains. Direct memory readouts also outperform majority voting and the best fixed peer over the full OOD evaluation set. Moreover, performance improves consistently as more correctness feedback becomes available, indicating that $Σ$-Mem progressively accumulates actionable reliability information. These results establish reliability memory as a reusable foundation for adaptive coordination in LLM-based multi-agent systems.
Safe adaptive control is online adaptation under a safety guarantee on the learning trajectory itself. The controller may use any causal, history-dependent rule and act differently across environments as data arrive. Only its safety guarantee is uniform: the same rule must satisfy it under every initially plausible model. Performance is measured against a safe oracle that knows the realized model. Many finite-time analyses assume persistent excitation of the uniformly safe closed loop, so the data distinguish every pair of models requiring different control decisions. Under that assumption, feasibility is already settled; only the rate remains. We ask instead: Do the safety constraints permit such an informative experiment at all? While an alternative remains plausible, the controller must preserve a safe continuation under it. We call the first action that forecloses such a continuation commitment. Chance safety allows commitment only on an event rare under the alternative, and the evidence must arrive beforehand: the observation generated by the committing action is too late. We define precommitment information as the KL divergence between learner-visible laws stopped before commitment. Our main result is a causal reduction. The commitment rule determines (1) the probability that safety permits commitment under the alternative, (2) the target-side cost of remaining noncommittal, (3) and the information available when the decision is made. Bounded precommitment information therefore leaves a fixed fraction of the oracle gap unavoidable. If the gap is Ω(T), every uniformly safe policy has linear regret. We establish the obstruction in a constrained linear system with quadratic regulation cost. We also prove recovery in special cases and derive semidefinite upper certificates for deterministic linear-Gaussian systems.
EEG foundation models have shown strong potential in learning generalized representations across subjects and tasks. However, most existing approaches follow a pretraining-static deployment paradigm, which suffers from two key limitations: (1) misalignment between pretraining objectives and downstream tasks, and (2) limited adaptability to distribution shifts in online settings. We propose Online Neural Adaptation (NeuroOnline), a unified framework that enables continuous adaptation in online scenarios. NeuroOnline integrates two complementary mechanisms: (1) multi-view consistency learning, which enforces cross-view alignment to promote consistent and task-relevant representations, and (2) context-aware representation modulation, which leverages a learnable context prompt with cross-attention to dynamically adapt representations to evolving data distributions. Together, these mechanisms unify representation alignment and dynamic adaptation. Experiments on multiple EEG benchmarks show that NeuroOnline consistently outperforms strong baselines in online settings, achieving better performance under distribution shifts. Ablation and sensitivity studies further validate the necessity of each component and the effectiveness of the overall design.
Molecular optimization often starts from a pretrained generative model that captures a broad prior over valid molecular structures. At test time, however, the goal is not to sample from this prior, but to use a limited oracle budget to shift generation toward task-specific high-reward molecules. We study this adaptation problem for discrete diffusion models. Each online round couples several choices. The loop must decide which candidates to evaluate, how rewards become model updates, which feedback to reuse, and how far to move beyond the pretrained prior. These choices have mostly been studied in isolation, leaving open whether they complement one another, become redundant, or interfere inside a full online adaptation loop. We conduct controlled studies across six small-molecule binding-affinity tasks and three protein-fitness tasks. We find that acquisition, reward shaping, and model debiasing provide complementary routes to higher reward, especially for small molecules. Replay further stabilizes learning, while validity penalties keep small-molecule exploration on the valid molecular manifold. Together, these findings point to a practical recipe for feedback-efficient molecular optimization: online fine-tuning with acquisition, reward shaping, debiasing, replay, and validity control. This recipe outperforms offline fine-tuning and inference-time search baselines under matched oracle-call budgets and GPU-hour accounting. The gains are largest when high-reward candidates require larger shifts from the pretrained prior.
At the heart of human visual perception lies the ability to maintain a continuous and coherent understanding of the external world. By integrating observations with accumulated experience, the human visual system can continuously adapt to variations in both the target and its surrounding environment, while preserving robust visual continuity as scene dynamics evolve. Human vision can therefore integrate prior knowledge, spatial geometry, and semantic context to understand complex scenes and their changes. As a core problem in computer vision, visual object tracking aims to bring machine perception closer to human visual perception. These capabilities are central to the task of Generic Object Tracking (GOT). In this task, a visual tracker is initialized only with the bounding box of an arbitrarily specified target in the first frame, and must continuously localize the target in subsequent dynamic visual streams. However, future events, observations, and real-world variations are inherently unpredictable; therefore, the model's generalization and online adaptation capabilities remain bottlenecks. Tracking reliability can deteriorate when the target undergoes severe deformation, is affected by complex distractors, encounters significant environmental changes, or belongs to a category unseen during training. This dissertation aims to narrow the gap between machine visual tracking systems and human visual perception by proposing a series of methods that systematically enhance the target discrimination, robust adaptation, and geometric reasoning capabilities of tracking models.
Subramanyam Sahoo, Aman Chadha, Vinija Jain +1cs.LG cs.AI stat.ML
Conservative offline training is widely advocated as a safe foundation for subsequent online adaptation: if a policy stays close to well-supported behaviour, the argument goes, it is less likely to exploit imperfections in a learned reward model. We challenge this intuition empirically and mechanistically. We train a Qwen3-14B policy under Direct Preference Optimisation (DPO) with three levels of conservatism ($β\in \{β_{\mathrm{lo}}, β_{\mathrm{mid}}, β_{\mathrm{hi}}\}$ derived from empirical log-ratio percentiles), then adapt each checkpoint online against a learned reward ensemble (3\,$\times$\,Qwen3-1.7B) while measuring true performance on GSM8K exact-answer accuracy. We find that \emph{higher offline conservatism monotonically increases reward-hacking damage}, measured by the Goodhart gap and its area under the curve (AUGC), with Spearman $ρ= 1.0$ across all three conditions. Mechanistic analysis reveals a three-link causal chain: (i) high-$β$ DPO compresses policy entropy, (ii) Low-entropy policies generate responses with reduced diversity, concentrating in a narrow region of the reward model's training distribution (lower pairwise cosine distance), and (iii) despite this proximity, ensemble disagreement (epistemic uncertainty) increases with $β$ and is exploited faster during online optimisation. We further fit a power-law curve to the $(β, \augc)$ data and identify a practical optimal conservatism level $β^{\star}$ that balances alignment fidelity against hacking vulnerability. Our results suggest that the field needs \emph{calibrated}, not \emph{maximal}, conservatism.
Effective online adaptation of vision-language-action (VLA) models remains challenging, as sparse rewards provide weak supervision for high-dimensional autoregressive action policies. Although self-distillation can in principle provide denser training signals, we find that text-based privileged teachers conditioned on demonstrations, retrieved experiences, or high-level plans are ineffective for VLA adaptation, exposing a modality gap between symbolic guidance and low-level robot actions. We propose ROAD-VLA, an advantage-guided self-distillation framework that constructs a proximal teacher directly in action space by perturbing action-token logits with calibrated advantage estimates. This converts sparse rewards into dense token-level supervision while keeping the teacher close to the current policy. We further derive a policy-improvement lower bound under calibrated advantages and accurate teacher matching. Across seven robotic manipulation environments with in-distribution and out-of-distribution shifts, ROADVLA outperforms PPO in nearly all settings, demonstrating robust online VLA adaptation.
Although state-of-the-art neural video codecs (NVCs) have achieved remarkable performance, they suffer from limited generalization when encountering complex motion patterns unseen during training. To bridge this domain gap without the expensive cost of online fine-tuning, we propose a Training-Free Scale-Driven Online Flow Refinement (SOFR) method. Serving as a plug-and-play module, SOFR integrates motion information from coarse and fine scales and dynamically fuses them according to warping accuracy, effectively rectifying motion estimation errors with negligible computational overhead. Furthermore, we design a rate-aware strategy that selects different dynamic fusion strategies according to bitrate modes, and employs a reliability check based on warping error to ensure robustness. Extensive experiments on the USTC-TD dataset verify the effectiveness and generalization of SOFR across various NVC frameworks, including DCVC-SDD, DCVC-FM, and EHVC. Notably, it brings an average of 2.84% and 4.05% bitrate savings in terms of PSNR and MS-SSIM, respectively, to DCVC-FM with negligible coding time increase. Our code is available at https://github.com/SunnyMass/SOFR.
The rapid evolution of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) has advanced zero-shot forecasting across diverse domains. Inspired by the current form of Large Language Models, future TSFMs may be offered as commercialized, closed-source API services. However, many existing online adaptation methods still rely on white-box access for parameter fine-tuning or gradient backpropagation. This paradigm mismatch raises a question: In black-box online adaptation for TSFMs, what should we learn? We answer this with an insight: the predictive errors of the base model are conditioned on both the input and output of the base model (i.e., the context of errors). To validate this insight, we propose ORCA (Online Residual Contextual Adaptation). We conduct extensive experiments across 5 state-of-the-art TSFMs and 8 datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. Furthermore, through ablation studies, we quantitatively analyze the impact of different adapter learning hypotheses on the final adaptation performance in black-box online adaptation. Code available at https://github.com/Fifthky/ORCA.
In this paper, we propose the Enhanced World Action Model (EWAM), a closed-loop online adaptation architecture built upon a pretrained and fully frozen Cosmos3 backbone network. Evaluated entirely under a zero-shot task protocol, EWAM is centrally focused on reducing the amount of additional deployment data required to adapt to new task layouts. Notably, no extra task-specific demonstration sets were introduced in any of the evaluations, and no fine-tuning was performed on the backbone network. Its performance gains stem entirely from an inference-time co-reasoning mechanism composed of four inserted lightweight neural layers: the Neural Experience Memory Layer located in the intermediate layers of the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) provides task-relevant execution context; the Neural Anomaly Detection Layer after the state prediction head monitors the divergence between predicted and actual states in real time; the Neural Policy Routing Layer dynamically selects direct execution, conservative replanning, or rollback recovery based on the anomaly severity; and the Neural Action Correction Layer refines the generated action chunks using execution diagnostics. Unlike naive feature fusion, the memory, anomaly detection, and correction modules are deeply integrated into the Cosmos3 forward path in a differentiable manner, with only the final routing decision being a discrete supervised one.
Existing memory-augmented LLM agents store past experience exclusively in prompt space, as textual summaries or retrieved passages, while keeping model parameters frozen throughout a rollout. Such agents can \emph{look up} what they have seen but cannot \emph{learn from} it: their policy is unchanged by experience, and any information dropped from the context is permanently lost. We introduce \texttt{TMEM}, a self-evolving parametric memory framework in which the agent not only compresses history into explicit memory but also absorbs distilled supervision into fast LoRA weights $Δ_t$ via lightweight online updates, genuinely altering its future behavior within a single episode. We formalize this as an agentic decision process with fast-weight rollout dynamics: actions are sampled from $π_{θ_0+Δ_t}$, while extraction actions produce supervision that updates $Δ_t$ for subsequent decisions. This view makes the extraction policy directly optimizable by RL: training $θ_0$ improves not only task actions but also the quality of the data used for online LoRA adaptation. We further propose SVD-based initialization of the LoRA subspace to accelerate online convergence. Experiments on LoCoMo, LongMemEval-S, multi-objective search, and CL-Bench show that \texttt{TMEM} consistently outperforms summary-based and retrieval-based baselines across different model scales.