A Deterministic Constant-Competitive Algorithm for Dynamic Mixture-of-Experts Serving

Dynamic Mixture-of-Experts Serving allocates k replica GPUs among m experts as workloads change. At each round, the online algorithm sees the current workload, chooses integral replica counts, and pays bottleneck service cost plus replica movement. It does not know future workloads. Huang, Lou, and Xiao gave an O(sqrt(log k))-competitive randomized algorithm for this problem. We prove a deterministic O(1)-competitive algorithm. For every number of experts and every k>=1, the algorithm satisfies ALG_det <= 10 C_PB OPT + (5 C_PB + 8) k + 16, where C_PB is the absolute constant from Chasing Positive Bodies at resource augmentation one and covering sparsity two. Consequently, CR_det(k)<=10 C_PB for every k>=1, so CR_det(k)=Theta(1). The multiplicative factor does not depend on the number of experts, replica budget, horizon, or workload values. Thus randomization is not needed for the asymptotic guarantee. The proof has two layers. A finite tangent envelope, summable positive resets, and a nonexpansive balanced projection reduce reciprocal-max service costs to a deterministic exact-budget fractional path. A new deterministic rounding theorem converts every such path to integral allocations with service distortion three and movement bounded by the fractional movement plus 6k. The complete reduction, rounding theorem, causal composition, and quantified main theorem are machine-checked in Lean 4 relative to the positive-body result as the sole scientific source premise. The theorem concerns the allocation model above. It does not include network topology, shared-edge congestion, or routing decisions.

Online Algorithms via Minimax and Posterior Matching

Competitive analysis is central to the study of online algorithms, but upper bounds are often highly problem-specific. We develop a more unifying methodology via the minimax viewpoint. Guided by Yao's principle, we reduce worst-case competitive analysis to Bayesian online design under an arbitrary correlated prior over arrival sequences. For such a prior, let $X^*$ be the hindsight-optimal fractional solution for the realized instance, and let $X^{(t)}=\mathbb E[X^*\mid \mathcal F_t]$ be its posterior process. Our guiding rule is posterior matching: at each time $t$, choose the feasible online action that tracks the current posterior $X^{(t)}$ as closely as the online constraints permit. We show that this single principle yields optimal or near-optimal guarantees for several classical online fractional problems, including set cover, load balancing, matching and more general resource-allocation problems, recovering or improving state-of-the-art bounds in these settings with norm/concave objectives. Via known rounding reductions, it also yields randomized integral guarantees for weighted paging, MTS on star metrics, and ski-rental. At a technical level, our analysis reduces competitive guarantees to key probabilistic inequalities for the vector martingales generated by the posterior of the offline optimum. The resulting framework gives a reusable route from Bayesian online design under arbitrary correlated priors to information-theoretic worst-case competitive guarantees.

Learning-Augmented and Randomized Algorithms for Line Aggregation with Delays

This paper studies learning-augmented and randomized online aggregation with delays on a line metric. We consider advice given as online suggested service lengths, and evaluate the algorithms in terms of robustness and consistency. For each $λ\in (0,1]$, we first propose a deterministic learning-augmented \textsc{Balance} algorithm that is $(4/λ+1/λ^2)$-robust and $(4+λ)$-consistent. We also propose a randomized algorithm for the problem in the classical adversarial model, which is $(e+1)$-competitive against an oblivious adversary, improving over the deterministic $5$-competitive \textsc{Balance} benchmark~\cite{bienkowski2013chain}. Notably, this competitive ratio is even lower than the lower bound of $4$ for deterministic online algorithms. Moreover, we establish a lower bound of $e$ on the competitive ratio of randomized online algorithms, improving the previous lower bound of $e/(e-1)$. Besides, we combine the two ideas and obtain a randomized learning-augmented algorithm that is $(e/λ+1/λ^2)$-robust and $(e+λ)$-consistent. Finally, we conduct numerical experiments to complement our theoretical analysis and evaluate the empirical performance of our algorithms.

Online Fair Division with Budget Constraints

We study an online variant of discrete fair division under generalized assignment budget constraints. Goods arrive one at a time and must be assigned irrevocably to a feasible agent or to charity, which holds all unallocated goods, while fairness is evaluated only against budget-feasible subsets of every recipient's bundle. We first show that, without additional structure, no deterministic online algorithm can guarantee any fixed approximation to feasible envy-freeness, even in highly symmetric instances. We then identify bounded density spread as a structural condition that restores meaningful guarantees, obtaining approximation algorithms for arbitrary item sizes and showing that, under common valuations and sufficiently small goods, these guarantees can be strengthened to an optimal deterministic frontier. We further study resource augmentation, where the online algorithm is allowed slightly larger budgets than the fairness benchmark, and characterize the resulting improvement in the achievable guarantees. Finally, we develop a learning-augmented framework based on predicting joint value-size types, proving consistency under perfect predictions, robustness to prediction error, and showing that separate predictions of value and size marginals are insufficient to recover strong fairness guarantees.

Online Bipartite Matching with Reusable Capacity under Non-Stationary Rewards

We study online bipartite matching with reusable server capacity and non-stationary rewards. Jobs arrive sequentially, reveal compatible servers, reward rates, and processing durations, and must be accepted or rejected irrevocably. An accepted job occupies one unit of server capacity only during its processing interval, so an assignment may displace an unknown sequence of future jobs. Existing guarantees are typically calibrated by a global reward range, which can become arbitrarily large when rewards drift over a long horizon. We instead impose a locally bounded reward condition: reward rates of jobs that can compete for the same server within a relevant time window differ by at most a factor $δ$. Under this condition, we develop two BALANCE-type algorithms with time-aware opportunity-cost losses. TS-BAL maximizes cumulative blocking losses over feasible reuse schedules and achieves a competitive ratio of $2\ln(δD)+\mathcal O(\ln\ln(δ\vee D))$. GR-BAL uses a greedy relaxation of this loss and achieves $\ln(δD)+\mathcal O(\ln\ln(δ\vee D))$, matching a lower bound of $\ln(δD)$ in the leading term. Numerical experiments demonstrate robust performance under substantial global reward drift and favorable finite-capacity performance.

Tight Lower Bounds for the Multi-Secretary Problem via Bellman Certificates

This paper studies additive regret in the multi-secretary problem, defined as the gap between the expected offline prophet reward and the reward of the best online policy. Prior work established \(O(\log T)\) regret for bounded-density distributions with connected support and \(O((\log T)^2)\) upper bounds for bounded-density distributions with support gaps. It was unknown whether the extra logarithmic factor is necessary even in the one-resource model. We prove that it is necessary. For a mixture of two separated uniform distributions at the critical capacity, the optimal regret grows at least on the order of \((\log T)^2\). Thus the existing \(O((\log T)^2)\) upper bounds for bounded-density gapped instances, including those implied by network revenue management models with continuous rewards, are tight in this simplest specialization. The same framework also yields a matching lower bound for gapped distributions whose gap-facing densities vanish near the support edges; this companion result is given in the appendix. The proofs use Bellman certificates: feasible solutions to a relaxation of the exact Bellman recursion. This framework converts lower bounds into explicit certificate constructions and identifies why support gaps permit larger regret.

Confidence Sequences for Online Statistical Model Checking of Markov Decision Processes

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are a classic model of decision making under uncertainty, exhibiting both non-deterministic choice as well as probabilistic uncertainty. Traditionally, exact knowledge of the underlying probabilities is assumed. However, this often is unrealistic, e.g.\ when modelling cyber-physical systems or biological processes. Here, statistical methods provide a way towards obtaining meaningful guarantees. The classical approach is to gather samples in the MDP, use these to draw statistical conclusions about the transition probabilities, and from there obtain bounds on the true value; then, if these bounds are too broad, repeat. However, existing implementations of this approach are either subtly incorrect or sub-optimal, and quite often both. We present several \emph{confidence sequences}, which are specifically designed for such \enquote{online} settings, implement all of them in an efficient tool, and show their practical applicability. In particular, we show that they outperform classical \enquote{union-bound} style approaches, and overall our implementation requires 50x less samples on average than previous state of the art.

Dynamic estimation of slowly varying sequences

We consider the problem of sequentially approximating functions of each element in a slowly-varying sequence, i.e. one where the magnitude $α_i$ of the difference between the elements at positions $i$ and $i-1$ is small. Recent work on implicit trace estimation shows that when $α_t$ is small, reusing queries to past sequence elements can reduce the overall cost [Dharangutte \& Musco, NeurIPS~2021; Woodruff et al., NeurIPS~2022]. We introduce a framework generalizing this to a variety of linear and nonlinear functions on diverse vector spaces, obtaining novel sequential estimation results for matrix powers, spectral densities, Monte Carlo integration, and a boundary value problem from partial differential equations~(PDEs). Furthermore, we develop a novel algorithm for use with this framework that locally scales the estimation budget with $α_t$, obtaining sharper path-length-style variation bounds of form $\mathcal O(\sum_{i=1}^mα_i)$ on the cost of estimating a sequence of length $m$. This improves upon the previous implicit trace estimation bound of $\mathcal O(m\cdot\max_iα_i)$ [Dharangutte \& Musco, NeurIPS~2021], which is achieved by fixing the query budget using the worst-case $α_i$ and is thus inefficient for stable sequences with rare bursts. Lastly, while all past work assumes a known bound on $α_i$, we show in certain cases how the changes can be estimated on-the-fly with (nearly) no added cost. In summary, our framework makes the sequential approximation toolkit general-purpose and adaptive while improving upon state-of-the-art-guarantees for dynamic trace estimation.

Learning-Augmented Algorithms for Online Vertex Cover

This paper studies learning-augmented online weighted vertex cover with advice and a parameter $λ\in (0,1)$. We consider two graph cases: bipartite graphs and general graphs. In both settings, the online algorithm must maintain a feasible vertex cover under irrevocable decisions. We show that these problems admit the same robustness--consistency tradeoffs as learning-augmented ski rental. For the bipartite graph model, we give a randomized algorithm that is $\frac{1}{1-e^{-λ}}$-robust and $\fracλ{1-e^{-λ}}$-consistent. For the general graph model, we give a deterministic algorithm that is $(1+\frac{1}λ)$-robust and $(1+λ)$-consistent. We prove that the tradeoffs above are optimal in both settings. We also validate the proposed algorithms through experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets.

Learning-Augmented Online Minimization with Dual Predictions

We present learning-augmented algorithms for two general classes of online minimization problems: metrical task systems and laminar set cover. Both algorithms achieve improved theoretical guarantees using machine-learned predictions of an optimal solution to the dual linear program. Unlike optimal primal solutions, which can change drastically under tiny instance perturbations, these dual solutions are much more stable, which ensures the existence of good (and learnable) predictions for families of similar instances. While previous work has used dual predictions in offline settings and for online maximization problems, our algorithms are, to the best of our knowledge, the first demonstration that such dual predictions can be effective for online minimization. Our theoretical results are complemented by experiments on the $k$-server problem and the parking permit problem.

The Secretary Problem with a Stochastic Precursor

In learning-augmented online algorithms, predictions are usually valued for what they say: a value estimate, a solution, or an algorithmic recommendation. This paper shows that predictions can also be valuable solely due to their arrival time. We study the fundamental secretary problem augmented with a stochastic precursor: a content-free signal that is guaranteed to arrive no later than the best item, but is otherwise stochastically timed. The signal does not carry any additional information; nevertheless, its timing alone changes the structure of optimal stopping. We characterize optimal policies in the random-order and adversarial-order models. In random order, a single uniformly timed precursor already gives success probability at least $\frac12$, improving on the classic $\frac1e$ benchmark. With increasingly late precursors, the success probability approaches $1$. In adversarial order, for which traditional models do not admit strong guarantees, sufficiently concentrated precursors recover constant success guarantees. Our results show that such novel forms of asynchronous temporal information are a distinct and powerful form of advice in online decision making and may also be effective for other problems.

Asymptotically Robust Learning-Augmented Algorithms for Preemptive FIFO Buffer Management

We present a learning-augmented online algorithm for the preemptive FIFO buffer management problem, where packets arrive online to a finite-capacity buffer, must be transmitted in FIFO order, and the algorithm may preemptively discard buffered packets to accommodate future arrivals. Our algorithm simultaneously achieves 1-consistency, η-smoothness, and asymptotic \sqrt{3}-robustness, where ηdenotes the prediction error. Specifically, it attains an optimal competitive ratio of 1 under perfect predictions, degrades smoothly as the prediction error increases, and maintains an asymptotic competitive ratio of \sqrt{3} under arbitrarily inaccurate predictions, matching the best-known worst-case guarantee for the classical online problem, established by Englert and Westermann in 2009 [Algorithmica 53(4): 523-548]. A key technical contribution of our work is the introduction of an \emph{output-based prediction error metric}. Because capacity constraints dictate that only a strictly bounded subset of arriving packets is ultimately transmitted, our metric assesses prediction quality over the resulting optimal schedules rather than the raw input sequences, avoiding artificial error penalties. To guarantee robustness, our algorithm dynamically monitors predictions and executes a \emph{buffer-clearing strategy} upon transitioning to a worst-case fallback mechanism. We prove that the competitive loss incurred by this clearing operation is bounded by an additive capacity constant that vanishes asymptotically. Finally, we show that our algorithm provides a generalized framework for learning-augmented buffer management: substituting the fallback module with any β-competitive online algorithm immediately yields asymptotic β-robustness.