Omar Abbadi, Rida Laraki, Panayotis Mertikopouloscs.LG cs.GT
We introduce an uncoupled learning algorithm which, when employed by all players of an arbitrary $N$-player normal form game with up to $K$ actions per player, guarantees $O(N^3\log^2 K)$ individual regret, uniformly over the horizon of play. The proposed algorithm - which we call higher-order optimism with discounting (HOOD) is a variant of optimistic follow-the-regularized-leader (OptFTRL) that combines a discounted $(N+1)$-th order predictor with entropic regularization over a suitable "lifting" of the game's strategy space. This combination of ingredients is purposefully designed to dampen large oscillations of the induced sequence of play in a controlled manner, removing in this way a key stumbling block of previous attempts to achieve constant regret in general games. Our approach bears several striking similarities to the concurrent - and completely independent - work of Liu, Farina, and Ozdaglar (arXiv:2608.31166), who very recently derived an $O(N^{21}\log^{4} K)$ regret bound through the use of higher-order optimism and an exponential moving average estimator.
We study online maximization of nonnegative, non-monotone DR-submodular functions over compact convex down-closed subsets of the $d$-dimensional unit cube. The best known constructive offline approximation factor is $0.401$ under the corresponding meta-solvability assumptions, whereas comparable adversarial online guarantees had remained at $1/e$. We show that this factor is also achievable online. In the post-decision full-information value-oracle model, our algorithm attains factor $0.401$ with sublinear approximate regret when oracle feedback is conditionally unbiased and bounded. The online algorithm does not run the offline construction on a changing objective. Instead, it replaces the offline objective-dependent box step by a weighted online learner that controls the required residual terms cumulatively. An exact asymmetric balance theorem preserves the offline coefficients despite adversarial variation. The direct implementation has $O(T^{3/4})$ regret and uses $O(dT^{1/4})$ oracle calls per round. More generally, for every $δ\in[0,1/4]$, batching gives $O(T^δ)$ calls per round and $O(T^{4/5-δ/5})$ regret, including a one-call $O(T^{4/5})$ endpoint. Under a positive-anchor condition, randomized blocking retains factor $0.401$ with $O(T^{5/6})$ one-point bandit regret.
To address the sequential and evolving nature of time series, the Online Time Series Forecasting (OTSF) task has been extensively studied in multiple domains. Existing research focuses on adapting to non-stationary environments by employing memory buffer-based retrieval strategies. However, we observe that such frameworks struggle with long-term adaptation and fail to generalize to unseen patterns. To this end, we introduce CoSPOT, an LLM-based online time series forecasting framework that leverages a pre-trained LLM as the backbone online forecaster, motivated by its strong few-shot capabilities. For efficient online adaptation, CoSPOT keeps the LLM frozen and employs compositional spectral prompts grounded in frequency-domain bases to guide the model with the overall distribution of the input, thereby substantially reducing the number of parameters updated during the online phase. Specifically, CoSPOT decomposes time series into frequency bases and composes the corresponding spectral basis prompts according to their amplitudes, allowing unseen patterns to be represented as new combinations of learned basis prompts. Our extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority and practicality of CoSPOT across challenging online scenarios, including extended online phases and cross-dataset settings with substantial distribution shifts. Our code is available at https://github.com/seungyoon-Choi/CoSPOT.
Louis Abraham, Tuan-Anh Nguyen, Nicolas Devatinecs.LG cs.AI
Many production systems can assess a configuration only by using it on live requests and observing noisy feedback. Modern agentic systems are a prominent example, with inference-time choices such as model selection, retrieval depth, prompting strategy, and decoding temperature, yet often with no representative validation data. We formalize this setting as Online Hyperparameter Optimization (OHPO) and cast it as an infinitely many-armed bandit over mixed and conditional search spaces. We introduce IMABO, a general framework that combines any bandit policy for choosing among already sampled configurations with any oracle for proposing new ones. We instantiate it with IMOSS, a restart-free anytime policy whose active set grows as $t^β$, and prove an expected cumulative quantile-regret bound of $O(p_ρ^{-1/β} + T^{(1+β)/2})$, where $β\in(0,1)$ controls active-set growth and $p_ρ$ lower-bounds the probability that a proposed configuration falls in the top-$ρ$ fraction of the search space. We combine IMOSS with three practical oracles: a Tree-structured Parzen Estimator, an incumbent-mutation oracle driven by a per-coordinate bandit, and a pretrained tabular foundation model, all three improving over the uniform random oracle baseline. IMABO obtains the lowest cumulative regret across diverse OHPO settings, from tuning classical machine-learning models to configuring LLM-based agents.
An LLM application often sells or internally allocates several service products: a small or premium model, a short or long token cap, and possibly multiple posted prices. The operational decision is not merely which model answers a prompt. A price changes purchase probability, a token cap changes both user value and the tail of resource consumption, and accepted requests compete for shared compute and premium-model capacity. Demand and output length are initially uncertain, while an offline model may provide useful but imperfect predictions. We formulate sequential pricing and admission with stochastic resource consumption. Each arriving request belongs to an observable segment. The platform chooses a product--price pair or makes no offer; purchase, revenue, and resource use are then random. An offline predictor supplies a uniform, validated error radius for every segment--product cell. We propose Prediction-Clipped UCB (PCUCB), which intersects the offline prediction interval with an online confidence interval, evaluates products using resource shadow prices, and reserves a sample-path envelope before commitment. The prior gives a fast start when accurate, while online learning protects the platform when predictions are coarse. The analysis is modular. On a simultaneous confidence event, regret against a buffered fluid benchmark is bounded by a pacing term plus the cumulative diameter of the intersected intervals. For $J$ segment-product cells and prediction radius $\varepsilon$, this yields \[ \widetilde O\left( \sqrt{T}+(1+\barΛ) \min\{T\varepsilon,\sqrt{JT}\} \right), \] where $\barΛ$ bounds operational shadow prices. Thus the algorithm smoothly interpolates between an almost full-information regime and learning from scratch. Hard feasibility holds on every sample path through reservation envelopes.
A multi-model language service must route each request while preserving workload-level budgets for compute, latency, memory, or monetary cost. Two features make this problem materially harder than static model selection. Prompt representations are high dimensional, so only a small subset of embedding directions may predict the incremental value of a model, and both the request mix and the model frontier drift after launches, fine-tunes, quantization changes, and system updates. We formulate nonstationary sparse contextual routing with multiple knapsack constraints and an optional shadow-audit stream that evaluates a small fraction of prompts on several models. We propose Drift-Aware Sparse Routing (DRS). The policy estimates reward and resource use from a rolling audit window, routes using pessimistic reward and optimistic cost estimates, updates resource shadow prices online, and applies a hard meter before commitment. The analysis separates control from statistics. On any event with uniform prediction radii $\{β_t\}$, regret against a paced dynamic fluid benchmark is bounded by the sum of the radii, a capacity-buffer term, and an $O(\sqrt{T})$ pacing term. Under a sparse linear model and bounded drift $V_T$, rolling estimation gives \[ \widetilde O\left( T\sqrt{\frac{s}{ρW}}+WV_T+\sqrt{T} \right), \] where $s$ is sparsity, $ρ$ is the audit rate, and $W$ is the window length. Optimizing $W$ yields the usual stationary $O(\sqrt{sT/ρ})$ rate when $V_T=0$ and a $O(T^{2/3}(s/ρ)^{1/3}V_T^{1/3})$ adaptation term under drift.
In online retailing, when a product sells out, a retailer often sees only the units sold, not how many customers would have bought it had inventory been available. However, the inventory level determines how much demand is revealed, and this information can influence subsequent decisions and future profits. We study an online selling problem in which, in each round, the seller observes a market context and then makes pricing and stocking decisions based on censored sales data from previous rounds. The challenge is to learn a context-dependent pricing and stocking policy without assuming a particular formula for demand or observing realized profit. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a Mean-Calibrated Kernel UCB (MCK-UCB) algorithm that turns each incomplete sales record into a reliable guide for both inventory and price decisions, using data from past rounds with similar market conditions. This design allows us to learn while serving customers, without a separate exploration phase or the need to recover all demand hidden by stockouts. We prove the minimax optimality of the proposed algorithm, with strictly faster rates when expected profit varies more smoothly with price. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.
Yiyang Lu, Mohammad Pedramfar, Vaneet Aggarwalmath.OC cs.AI cs.LG
We study decentralized online optimization of upper-linearizable payoffs over an action set under efficient separation access, with applications to online continuous diminishing-return (DR) submodular maximization. We propose Decentralized Barrier Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (Dec-BFTRL), and evaluate each agent's played action against the average of all local objectives. Each agent maps an internal iterate to a feasible action through an approximate gauge projection, communicates only a cumulative surrogate-gradient dual state, and invokes the local HybridNewton procedure to approximately minimize its post-communication BFTRL potential. For every agent, we achieve expected network-aggregate regret of $\widetilde O(\sqrt{T})$. Over $T$ rounds, each agent uses $T$ neighbor-mixing steps and $\widetilde O(T)$ separation-oracle calls. We give four wrapper instantiations covering three DR-submodular maximization problems.
Xiaobing Dai, Armin Lederer, Zewen Yang +4cs.LG cs.RO eess.SY
Online learning-based control is a promising approach to control uncertain systems, where unknown components are identified during operation to improve control performance. However, resource-intensive online learning algorithms introduce non-negligible computational delays, especially when executed on systems with limited local computational resources. To mitigate this, an in-network online learning-based control structure is employed by deploying the learning-based controller on a remote computation node and connecting it via a communication channel. In this paper, control performance guarantee is first established by deriving tracking error bound for the in-network control architecture, while accounting for computational delays. The derived tracking error bound allows for diverse communication and computation strategies under a specific condition, including time-/event-triggered mechanisms. Additionally, the trade-off between communication and computation performances is shown for a given desired control performance. Furthermore, to enhance the efficiency in both communication and computation, an efficient control framework with an asynchronous event-triggered mechanism in both control and online learning is devised under the existence of computational delay. The proposed event-triggered strategy is proven to achieve the same control performance as time-triggered scenario while excluding Zeno behavior. Finally, we derive an explicit expression of the proposed event-trigger condition for exponentially stabilizable systems, and demonstrate its effectiveness through simulations.
Worst-case online classification is governed by sequential complexity, such as Littlestone dimension, and can be impossible even for statistically simple classes, such as thresholds of VC dimension one. We study a preview model in which an oblivious adversary fixes an entire labeled sequence of length $T$, a uniformly random subset of size $pT$ is revealed before prediction begins, and the remaining $(1-p)T$ examples are then presented in their original adversarial order. Against the best full-sequence hypothesis evaluated on the unrevealed examples, we characterize the dependence on the preview rate $p$: for binary classes of VC dimension $d$, the optimal excess loss is $Θ(d/p+\sqrt{dT})$, up to the trivial cap at $T$; for multiclass classes we obtain the corresponding $\widetilde O(d_{\rm DS}/p+\sqrt{d_{\rm Nat}T})$ bound with no dependence on the number of labels. Thus a random preview can replace worst-case sequential complexity by classical statistical dimensions without randomizing the online order. To achieve the sharp binary bound, our ChainedPrediction algorithm uses an online analogue of chaining, implemented as a multiscale aggregation algorithm rather than only as an analytic argument.
Knowledge distillation trains a small student model to reproduce the outputs of a large teacher model, and its progress is typically monitored through the teacher--student discrepancy. The quantity of ultimate interest, however, is the student's error with respect to the true task. We study the relation between these two objectives in a minimal three-party model, a true teacher (generative model), a teacher, and a student, all soft committee machines, in which the true teacher contains a shared latent factor that the teacher cannot represent, with mismatch strength controlled by a single scalar $\dmiss$. Within an order-parameter description of online distillation, and exploiting closed-form (arcsine-type) expressions for all errors under error-function activations, we prove that the learning dynamics and the distillation error $\Ets$ are exactly invariant to $\dmiss$, whereas the true error $\Etzs$ and the gap $Δ=\Etzs-\Ets$ are strictly increasing in $\dmiss$, with a rate that is amplified linearly by the complexity $M_0$ of the true teacher. Numerical phase diagrams over the plane spanned by true-teacher complexity and student capacity confirm the predicted deformation: the contours of $\Ets$ do not move while the landscape of $\Etzs$ rises systematically, and a teacher-miss regime, where mimicry succeeds but the task fails, expands with $\dmiss$. The results give a quantitative warning against evaluating distillation solely through teacher-mimicry metrics and identify the gap $Δ$ as a minimal diagnostic for distinguishing teacher-miss from capacity-limited failure.
Predictive Process Monitoring (PPM) models are increasingly deployed in dynamic environments where concept drift causes the underlying process distribution to shift over time. While recent work has moved toward online continual learning, existing methods train compact, task-specific networks entirely from scratch, leaving a persistent cold-start problem. Foundation Models (FMs) offer a compelling solution to this problem, but their continual fine-tuning in the process mining domain remains unexplored. We propose COMPASS (Continual Online foundation Model-based PPM with Adaptive SubSpaces), the first framework for online continual fine-tuning of FMs for PPM. COMPASS adapts loss-plateau drift detection to autonomously identify task boundaries in event streams and maintains a unified knowledge subspace including both pre-trained and task-specific directions. We evaluate our approach on nine event streams covering synthetic and real-world concept drift scenarios, across task-free and task-aware settings with multiple backbones and with consistent hyperparameter tuning across all methods. Our approach outperforms three SOTA non-FM competitors and two update strategy baselines, with particularly strong gains on streams exhibiting recurrent drift and complex, long-running cases, while incurring acceptable computational overhead compared to the non-FM competitors.
Exact Bayes prediction enjoys fast predictive regret guarantees, but exact posterior updating or representation may be too costly for online use. We study when these statistical guarantees are preserved by computational approximations. We show that the cumulative price of posterior approximation can be governed by the interaction between the contraction radius of the exact Gibbs posterior and the Wasserstein distance between the approximate and exact posteriors. Our general theorem shows that whenever exact Bayes prediction achieves a fast regret bound, any approximate posterior method that tracks the exact posterior with sufficient accuracy inherits the same fast regret, up to an additive term determined by the approximation error. Three online learning examples are developed. For linear models with strongly convex regularized losses, a projected Langevin algorithm yields an approximate posterior that achieves logarithmic regret. For an infinite-dimensional canonical exponential family sequence model over a Sobolev ellipsoid, a prior-preserving truncation method attains the minimax predictive regret rate with sublinear memory and constant update cost per observation. For random-design Gaussian process (GP) regression, a sparse variational posterior with inducing variables achieves the same predictive regret rate as the exact GP, but at substantially lower computational cost.
Accurate online traffic prediction is essential for intelligent transportation systems, where forecasting must be performed continuously under imperfect sensing conditions. Missing observations and anomalous disturbances make this task challenging, particularly when prediction relies on a single traffic view. This paper proposes a Multi-View Coupled Tensor Decomposition (MVCTD) model for online traffic prediction from imperfect multi-view observations, such as speed, flow, and occupancy. The proposed model uses coupled tensor decomposition to build a structured latent forecasting space, in which shared spatial structures across traffic views and view-specific temporal dynamics are jointly modeled. A group sparse regularization is further introduced to capture correlated abnormal responses induced by real traffic anomalies and thus reduce their influence on forecasts. For streaming deployment, MVCTD performs iterative refinement only on the current latent tensor, while the remaining model variables are updated by lightweight closed-form steps based on summarized historical information, thereby avoiding repeated optimization over the full historical sequence. Experiments on real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that MVCTD achieves accurate forecasts with favorable runtime under severe missingness, confirming its suitability for online traffic prediction.
Group-relative reinforcement learning waits for sibling rollouts of the same prompt, which is costly for long and variable tool-use trajectories. Single-stream Policy Optimization (SPO) removes this dependency with a persistent prompt-level value estimate, but its recipe whitens one advantage per trajectory before optimizing a token-mean actor loss. We show that trajectory centering generally does not center the token-weighted quantity consumed by the actor, and fix the mismatch by standardizing terminal-outcome advantages under the action-token measure. We additionally organize prompt evidence by the policy event that generated it rather than learner receipt order. Across matched runs on ALFWorld at two model scales and on Math-TIR, SPO++ improves online learning efficiency over SPO. A paired ablation identifies action-token-measure normalization as the strongest tested component.
We settle the minimax-optimal alternating regret, a regret notion motivated by alternating learning dynamics in games, for both online linear optimization (OLO) and online convex optimization (OCO). For OLO over the probability simplex $Δ_d$, we give an algorithm with $O(\log d)$ alternating regret that remains a constant for any time horizon $T$, and a matching lower bound. Our constant regret bound significantly improves previous results with $O(\log ^{2/3}d \cdot T^{1/3})$ regret [Cevher, Cutkosky, Kavis, Piliouras, Skoulakis, Viano, NeurIPS 2023, Hait, Li, Luo, Zhang, COLT 2025]. As a result, we obtain alternating learning dynamics with $O(\log d /T)$ convergence to Nash equilibria in two-player zero-sum games and $O(\log d /T)$ convergence to coarse correlated equilibria in two-player general-sum games. This is the first uncoupled learning dynamics with $O(1/T)$ convergence to CCE in two-player general-sum games, while all prior works suffer additional $\log T$ factors. For general OCO over a $d$-dimensional compact convex set, we give an algorithm with $O(d\log (1+T/d))$ alternating regret, improving the previous best of $\widetilde{O}(d^{2/3}T^{1/3})$. We also prove a matching lower bound of $Ω(d\log (1+T/d))$, showing that the $Ω(\log T)$ factor is unavoidable.
Optimization of hyperparameters is a critical factor to obtain optimal model performance. While existing research has predominantly concentrated on batch-learning scenarios, addressing the complexities inherent in data streams presents a challenge. The deployment of sophisticated methodologies to manage data streams becomes highly important. Consequently, the capacity for self-adjusting hyperparameters during on-line learning phases emerges as a goal. Many hyperparameters exhibit constraints and are confined within bounded search spaces, rendering specific solutions unacceptable upon applying optimization operators. To solve this issue, employing boundary constraint- handling techniques becomes imperative to rectify invalid solutions. This paper presents strategies for effectively managing boundary constraints within constrained numerical optimization problems. Recent methodologies, including heuristic and evolutionary-based optimization, employ a "boundary" strategy, wherein values that surpass boundary thresholds for a given hyperparameter are realigned to the respective limits. Our study introduces four strategies to navigate boundary constraints in online optimization algorithms. Through empirical investigations conducted on established datasets, we demonstrate that adopting boundary strategies outperforms the "boundary" strategy.
Predictive Coding (PC) is a neural learning paradigm that enables parallelizable neural network layer updates. However, the main bottleneck of PC Networks (PCN) is the sequential backwards error propagation. To tackle this, we introduce a training technique that pairs a Generative PCN with a support Encoding PCN. The two PCNs are trained in parallel to match their neural activations, without sequential propagation. We apply this to time series anomaly detection and show that our approach results in more stable, continuous, online learning.
The prediction of student engagement from the online tutoring videos is difficult because engagement is a multidimensional construct comprising distinct behavioral, emotional, and cognitive states. A reliable prediction requires bringing together different types of behavioral signals as well as expressive cues. Through our analysis of the CASED dataset, it is clear that engagement prediction gets even harder due to the high inter-person variability as well as the subjectivity of the engagement annotation. To tackle these challenges, we develop a multimodal framework that integrates the implicit spatiotemporal features extracted from pretrained video, audio, and image encoders along with structured behavioral modalities like head pose, gaze, facial action units, emotion, and wavelet-based audio features. We integrate these modalities via a Perceiver IO latent bottleneck. Moreover, student and instructor personalities are modeled as variational posteriors over learnable embeddings to enable partial pooling across participants. We employ evidential regression and spectral-normalized Gaussian process classification heads for uncertainty-aware prediction to further improve robustness and calibration. Benchmark on the CASED challenge test set shows that all participating methods converge near random-chance performance, revealing the difficulty of the dataset. In this highly ambiguous regime, our framework achieves competitive performance while uniquely offering well-calibrated uncertainty metrics, demonstrating that reliable risk-quantification is an essential prerequisite for deploying engagement models in real-world educational tools.
Anagha Gokul, Jason Hartline, Lunjia Hu +2cs.DS cs.GT cs.LG
Calibration requires probabilistic reports to be conditionally unbiased and reliably interpretable as probabilities. A calibration measure assigns numerical error to miscalibrated reports. Haghtalab et al. (2024) proposed an approximately truthful calibration measure for online prediction, leaving open whether exact truthfulness is compatible with completeness and soundness. We resolve this question negatively for sequential binary prediction: exact truthfulness is incompatible with completeness and soundness, even for independent outcomes. We then show that this impossibility is specific to exact truthfulness. We give two general reductions from a base calibration measure, producing additively and multiplicatively approximately truthful calibration measures, respectively. Applying the multiplicative reduction, for every $0 < \varepsilon < 1$ we construct a sound and complete calibration measure that is $(1+\exp(-T^{(1-\varepsilon)/2}/2))$-multiplicatively truthful. This improves the approximate-truthfulness guarantee of Haghtalab et al. (2024).
Production machine learning systems degrade under concept drift, yet practitioners have little principled guidance on when to retrain. Retraining is costly, retraining budgets are finite, and a retrained model does not take effect instantly: training and deployment latency leave a stale model serving predictions while the data continues to move. We present a controlled empirical study of three practical model-refresh policies (periodic retraining, error-threshold triggering, and statistical drift-triggered retraining with ADWIN) against a no-retrain baseline, evaluated under a unified system model that makes retraining budgets and training-plus-deployment latency explicit. Across 3,933 experiment runs spanning three drift regimes, three budget levels, up to five latency levels, three datasets, and two learning modes, we find that the single most consequential design decision is not the retraining policy but whether the deployed model learns incrementally. With per-sample incremental updates, and for the linear online learner with immediate labels studied here, no policy differs from the no-retrain baseline by a practically significant margin in any of 54 paired comparisons, even at extreme latency. Without incremental updates, policy choice separates outcomes by 15-55 percentage points of post-drift accuracy, and simple periodic retraining significantly outperforms both reactive policies under abrupt and gradual drift, while reactive policies retain an advantage only under recurring drift. We document systematic failure modes of reactive policies and a latency-budget queueing interaction that silently halves effective retraining budgets, and release the full simulator, dataset pipelines, and per-run artifacts for reproducibility.
Shawon Dey, Michael Budihartono, Hever Moncayocs.CE cs.LG
Mission-critical intelligent systems often operate under time-varying limitations that reduce control authority and change the admissible safe operating envelope. In such settings, a safety certificate learned under nominal conditions may become invalid as system capability changes. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a degradation-aware, data-driven safety-filtering framework that learns a safe set from data, updates it online, and enforces the resulting learned barrier through a time-varying control barrier function (CBF). A nominal safe envelope is first learned from operational data using a radial basis function (RBF)-kernel support vector machine (SVM), whose decision function serves as the initial CBF candidate. To capture capability-induced safe-set contraction, a continuous-time decremental SVM update law is developed so that selected support-vector coefficients are reduced according to a degradation signal. A homotopy-smoothed SVM-CBF is then introduced to avoid discontinuous changes in the learned barrier during active-set transitions. The resulting time-varying learned barrier is enforced using a quadratic-program-based safety filter under degraded input constraints. Forward invariance of the learned time-varying safe set and recursive feasibility of the safety filter are established. Simulation results on a vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) model show that the proposed method maintains safety under reduced control authority and avoids abrupt barrier-switching effects during safe-set contraction.
Mansur M. Arief, Ali Akarma, Ahmad Alfan Alfian Irfancs.RO cs.AI math.OC
Mobile robots that operate in side by side with humans and critical facilities must reach their goals at low cost, despite often unknown true traversal costs of the map apriori and imperfect actuation. Planners that solve the underlying stochastic shortest path problem exactly, such as value iteration, require computation that grows with the diameter of the map, whereas Dijkstra's algorithm is fast but is usually considered inexact once transitions are stochastic. This study shows that Dijkstra's algorithm can remain an exact planning engine under a condition that is much weaker than the causality condition often invoked in the literature, namely nonnegativity of a reduced cost defined on the determinized map. Building on this characterization, an online learner DORA (Dijkstra Oracle Reduced-cost Algorithm) is proposed for robot navigation that calls a shortest path oracle a fixed number of times per episode, never estimates a transition kernel, and adds a logarithmic survival weight when the probability of contact with a dynamic obstacle must stay within a budget. In the numerical experiments involving three other benchmarks that cover grid world navigation, directional drilling, and drone surveillance, the learner matches optimistic value iteration that is given the true transition kernel while performing 4.5 to 19.3 times less planner work, reduces contacts during learning by a factor of seventeen relative to determinize and replan, and keeps the contact rate within budgets that span two orders of magnitude. These results indicate that shortest path search supports safe and efficient online navigation and path planning tasks.
Huibo Xu, Shi Fu, Qixin Zhang +1stat.ML cs.LG stat.AP
In high-dimensional online prediction, the best predictor may depend on only a few features, so regret should scale with sparsity rather than the ambient dimension. Feature priming pursues this goal by estimating feature weights from past data and refitting a minimum-norm predictor on the rescaled design. Warmuth and Amid asked at COLT 2023 whether any of three such rules admits a competitive online regret guarantee. Using the natural Moore--Penrose protocol based only on past data, we give a negative answer to the sparse-logarithmic form of this COLT open problem. Our analysis identifies a common obstruction: cheap nuisance interpolation causes the refit to underweight the truly predictive coordinate. An exact target-mass identity and a two-sign argument turn this effect into clipped prediction loss. Hadamard constructions force $Ω(\min\{T,\sqrt{d}\})$ regret for all three rules against a zero-loss one-sparse comparator, with extensions to fixed prime powers and selectors among the rules. Conversely, regret is controlled by data rank, and a Euclidean-normalized triangular construction matches this dependence for powered univariate priming, even under nonnegative second-stage ridge regularization; a paired ridge construction also covers all three powered rules. Exploratory diagnostics on frozen language-model activations exhibit the same relation among nuisance interpolation, target weight, and loss. The exact multivariate and Pearson frontiers remain open.
Regularized sparse regression has been extensively studied in the offline setting, but online formulation remains relatively under-explored. This gap stems from four key challenges: (i) the infeasibility of dynamically updating the regularization parameter in every online round, (ii) managing storage and memory complexity, (iii) enabling real-time computation via closed-form updates rather than solving full optimization problems at each round, and (iv) achieving optimal statistical guarantees under realistic assumptions. In this paper, we propose an online generalized-sparsity-constrained regression framework, focusing on online cardinality-constrained linear regression and low-rank matrix sensing. Unlike online regularized regression, our constrained formulation eliminates the need for dynamic parameter tuning. We introduce an efficient online hard-thresholding algorithm that performs closed-form updates and requires storing only summary statistics, making it computationally, memory, and storage efficient. Despite the inherent nonconvexity and combinatorial nature of the formulation, our algorithm achieves global convergence at the optimal statistical rate under realistic assumptions, provided that the projection set is properly overparameterized. Numerical experiments demonstrate that our method consistently outperforms state-of-the-art alternatives.
Online decision making often requires navigating a landscape shaped by both dynamic contexts and strategic interactions. In competitive pricing, for example, hotels must account for both dynamic contextual factors and rivals' strategic responses. Existing approaches address only part of this challenge: contextual bandits optimize single-agent decisions using observable features but ignore multi-player interactions, while online matrix games capture strategic behavior through Nash equilibrium but assume fixed payoffs, ignoring contextual information. How should agents act then when strategic payoffs evolve with contextual signals? We introduce \emph{online contextual matrix games} to integrate contextual information into multi-player online games. We further propose \emph{OnGameLearn}, an online learning algorithm that efficiently balances exploration and exploitation across both player actions and contexts. This approach comes with statistical guarantees: tail bounds for the estimated payoff matrix, the convergence of the estimated Nash equilibrium, the asymptotic normality of the parameter estimators, and the sublinear regret bound. We also develop the notion of \emph{policy value} in matrix games and develop a doubly robust, $\sqrt{T}$-consistent estimator for it. Across simulated studies and a real-world hotel pricing application, we find that OnGameLearn effectively navigates the intertwined challenges of strategic and contextual decision-making.
Motivated by modern marketplaces, where the platform or the seller routinely gathers detailed user profiles, we study a novel learning theoretic model that simultaneously involves information and mechanism design. Specifically, we consider the economic setting recently introduced by Bergemann et al. (2022), where in addition to the menu of quality-price pairs, the seller offers information on the value of the match between product quality and buyer's taste via a signaling scheme. We relax the assumption that the seller knows the buyers' belief about the distribution of tastes and study the sample requirements of designing a revenue maximizing scheme. We consider both the batch setting where we have access to data from a set of i.i.d. buyers and an online demand query model where we observe the buyers' behaviors to seller's schemes. Despite the apparent non-convexity of the problem, we also give the first FPTAS to compute a scheme that maximizes the revenue within an arbitrarily small additive loss, which was left open by Bergemann et al. (2022). Overall, this brings a new learning perspective in asymmetric economic settings where buyers and sellers know different types of information.
We introduce Multinomial Subset Routing (MSR), a new online routing framework over $K$ experts in which the learner keeps a multinomial routing policy instead of a deterministic subset of experts. At each round, the learner samples $M$ experts i.i.d. from the multinomial policy, and the resulting set of distinct sampled experts forms the routed subset. The reward depends only on the best-performing expert(s) in the routed subset. This reward structure arises naturally in routing across specialized models but is not captured by standard combinatorial bandits or subset-selection methods, which optimize deterministic subsets and typically assume additive rewards. We require the selection to satisfy several long-term, two-sided operational constraints under bandit feedback, observing only the winner's reward each round. We propose OMD-Approachability, combining online mirror descent with Blackwell's Approachability, and prove it achieves $O(1/\sqrt{T})$ regret in both reward and constraint violation. We ground the framework in practical application domains and validate it empirically on a real-world crowdsourcing dataset.
Learning from experience is critical for developing capable, self-improving large language model (LLM) agents. Existing methods typically extract knowledge from accumulated trajectories via reflection, memory, rules, or skills. However, agents in realistic environments continuously encounter novel tasks, often offering only a one-shot opportunity to improve. These executions yield rich but highly noisy contexts, entangling broadly useful lessons with task-specific artifacts. Critically, prior works rarely validate their effectiveness on complex real-world tasks or isolate the underlying drivers of improvement. To address these gaps, we formulate online harness learning, where a frozen agent improves by continually updating a structured harness across sequential tasks. This formulation enables a systematic study of key self-improvement factors through our proposed Evo-Harness. At its core, context-to-harness skill compilation distills noisy, single-shot executions into reusable skill harnesses for cross-domain and topic-level adaptation. To demonstrate the efficacy of one-shot skill compilation, we evaluate across five realistic benchmarks (TerminalBench2, SWE-bench, CL-Bench, -bench, WebArena-Infinity). Our extensive analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of Evo-Harness and provides a principled understanding of how LLM agents can effectively learn on the fly. Our code is available at https://github.com/A-EVO-Lab/a-evolve/tree/release/evo-harness.
The one-warehouse multi-store (OWMS) system is a fundamental inventory network in which a nonreplenishable warehouse allocates shared stock across multiple stores over time. Existing OWMS learning policies are built around a fixed target calibrated to the initial average resource rate, but such a fixed-target architecture cannot re-center after realized sales change the remaining resource available per future period. We develop Resource-Adaptive Primal-Dual Learning, a new learning framework that tracks the primal-dual resolving path with censored demand as the remaining-resource state evolves. In each period, the current resource rate indexes the target store allocations and dual variable, while censored sales provide gradient estimates for updating both. The analysis combines expected-sales geometry with a moving-target argument to yield logarithmic expected regret, improving on the state-of-the-art square-root-order guarantees of existing OWMS learning policies. The underlying design and analytical ideas may inform other online learning problems with depleting shared resources. Numerical experiments further demonstrate good finite-horizon performance of a practical variant across different horizon lengths and inventory regimes.