On real open-model pools, 12--36% of the reported router-to-oracle gap is single-draw label noise that no single-commit router can capture, while the majority is genuine, recoverable specialist advantage; this work proves why (a recoverability asymmetry) and releases a protocol to measure it. Routing among large language models (LLMs) trades cost for quality, motivated by the gap between learned routers and a per-instance oracle. But under stochastic decoding that oracle is a single Bernoulli draw, not a reproducible property. We recast the question structurally: the expected oracle decomposes as $O^{\exp}=O^{\mathrm{repro}}+Δ$, into reproducible single-commit headroom $O^{\mathrm{repro}}$ and a non-negative single-commit selection floor $Δ$. Our main result is a recoverability asymmetry: this floor is closed by no single-commit router (deterministic or randomized), yet is provably recovered by test-time sampling: best-of-$K$ on the committed model, at the oracle's own budget, dominates the independent-pool single-draw oracle. This cap needs no cross-model independence, pinning "not recoverable" to single-commit selection, not to information. The floor's magnitude is a prospective, conservative localization, not an audit: LLMRouterBench (33 models, 391,645 instances) builds its oracle as a per-query union of single $T=0.2$ draws, so its 20-point gap is by construction a union of stochastic draws; since $O^{\mathrm{repro}}$ is non-identifiable at $k=1$, we re-estimate by fresh $k\ge20$ resampling under one-sided, dependence-corrected bounds. Across three controlled open-model re-generations (arithmetic, competition math, and non-math science), single-draw noise is a substantial minority of the gap, larger on unsaturated benchmarks and approaching half on the hardest queries. We release a multi-sample oracle protocol that routing benchmarks can adopt.
We study the limits of CTC-internal scoring for N-best hypothesis selection and locate the information bottleneck separating acoustic confidence from linguistic plausibility. Eleven CTC-internal and acoustic-feature scoring strategies produce no statistically significant WER improvement over greedy decoding on LibriSpeech dev-other at G=16 (all p > 0.05). The exhaustion is systematic: CTC's Spearman $ρ$ between hypothesis score and per-utterance WER degrades from -0.574 at G=4 to -0.270 at G=128, a 53% loss driven by blank-path proliferation. This establishes that the discriminative capacity of CTC-internal representations is saturated: no recombination of acoustic signals can close the oracle gap. Confirming that the bottleneck is linguistic, not acoustic, external linguistic information introduced via MBR decoding breaks through it. MBR-CER decoding with a RoBERTa pseudo-log-likelihood (PLL) posterior ($τ$=10, G=128) achieves 5.42% WER on held-out LibriSpeech test-other (greedy 5.96%, $Δ$=-0.535 pp, p<0.0001, 9.0% relative). RoBERTa PLL $ρ$ degrades only 21% over the same range, retaining discriminating power where CTC loses it. Applied without retuning across two Zipformer architectures, three domains (LibriSpeech, TED-LIUM 3, VoxPopuli), and four MUSAN noise levels, the recipe gives significant gains in 11 of 13 conditions. On the training side, standard MWER training via the CTC forward-backward algorithm implements Rao-Blackwellized REINFORCE at the output projection (variance about 3x below Viterbi). Yet sequence-level fine-tuning fails at near-converged checkpoints: all four MWER configurations on CR-CTC collapse (+6.18 to +8.90 pp WER), as a training oracle gap of 0.007 pp provides no usable reward signal.