Serving useful recommendations under distribution shift is crucial for balancing utility and risk in out-of-distribution (OOD) recommendation. However, most existing OOD methods improve ranking or construct counterfactual candidates without controlling the proxy-label false discovery rate (FDR) of the served set. In this work, we formulate OOD serving as the $α$-Valid Counterfactual Recommendation ($α$-VCR) problem to retain candidate support learned from counterfactual supervision while controlling proxy-label FDR, and propose GenCAR, which couples preference-grounded counterfactual supervision with calibrated set selection. In particular, GenCAR fixes the stable-preference representation while intervening on the environmental factor, grounds offline large language model proposals through preference anchors and trust-radius filtering, and uses conformal $p$-values for Benjamini--Hochberg selection. We theoretically bound conditional counterfactual approximation error and prove finite-sample, distribution-free control of proxy-label FDR under exchangeability and positive regression dependence, with a Benjamini--Yekutieli guarantee under arbitrary dependence. Extensive experiments audit realized proxy false discovery proportions and demonstrate that GenCAR consistently enhances OOD candidate recovery across diverse benchmarks.
Alexandre V. Delazeri, Gabriel E. Lima, Eduil Nascimento +2cs.CV
Vehicle attribute recognition is an important task in intelligent transportation systems, particularly when Automatic License Plate Recognition (ALPR) is unavailable or unreliable. Although vision foundation models have shown strong transferability across domains, their effectiveness for fine-grained vehicle classification remains underexplored. Moreover, given the inherently three-dimensional structure of vehicles, it is unclear whether emerging 3D-aware foundation models offer advantages over standard 2D architectures. This paper presents an empirical benchmark of 14 state-of-the-art 2D and 3D-aware vision foundation models. Using the challenging real-world UFPR-VeSV dataset, we evaluate these models as frozen feature extractors via linear probing for vehicle type, make, and model recognition. We further stress-test the best-performing models under few-shot learning and Out-of-Distribution (OOD) domain shifts. Our results show that standard 2D self-supervised models, particularly DINOv3, substantially outperform 3D-aware models in fine-grained tasks, achieving over 93% Macro-Accuracy for make and model recognition. However, the 3D-aware Depth Anything v2 exhibits stronger invariance to viewing angles in vehicle type classification. These findings motivate hybrid approaches that combine 2D and 3D priors for robust vehicle recognition. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/UFPR-IPASPPR/3D-Vision-Benchmark/.
Jiawen Liu, Xuechenxiao Cao, Yutong Li +5cs.LG cs.AI
Predicting transcriptome-wide responses to unseen genetic perturbations remains a major computational challenge because accurate prediction requires recovering both perturbation-specific transcriptional shifts and heterogeneous cellular responses. Existing methods often entangle deterministic response structure with stochastic population-level variation, causing dominant shared patterns to mask weaker perturbation-specific signals and impair distributional modeling. To address these challenges, we propose \textbf{DeMixPert}, an approach for Decomposed response Modeling with Gaussian Mixtures for Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) single-cell Perturbation prediction. DeMixPert decomposes perturbation-induced changes into a basal-state-dependent systematic response, a perturbation-specific response, and population-level variation. The systematic component is derived from the basal state encoded from control-cell expression, whereas the perturbation-specific component is inferred from pretrained target embeddings for unseen-target generalization. DeMixPert models population-level variation using a Gaussian prototype Invertible Network and adaptively combines reusable Gaussian prototypes according to the basal state and perturbation condition. The resulting mixture is mapped to a condition-specific variation distribution. Sampled variations are integrated with the systematic and perturbation-specific components, followed by joint decoding with the basal state to reconstruct perturbed-cell gene expression. Experimental results show that DeMixPert effectively captures heterogeneous single-cell perturbation responses and achieves superior performance across unseen-perturbation settings. The source code is made publicly available upon publication.
Marko Haralović, Sounic Akkaraju, Carlo Baretta +2cs.CV
Foundation models for medical image segmentation, like prompt-based MedSAM, generalize well across domains and modalities, often in zero or few-shot setups. However, their performance depends on the quality of prompts and the adaptation of the models to custom datasets. This work systematically examines how MedSAM generalizes across diverse medical imaging benchmarks, with six adaptation strategies: full-model and encoder-only LoRA, shallow and deep visual prompt tuning (VPT), and decoder-only and full fine-tuning. Models are trained on the International Skin Imaging Collaboration Challenge (ISIC 2018) dataset and evaluated under clean and increasingly noisy prompts on IN and Out-of-Distribution (OOD) datasets: close-OOD PH2 (dermoscopy), far-OOD BUSI (Breast Ultrasound Images Dataset) and CBIS-DDSM (Curated Breast Imaging Subset of the Digital Database for Screening Mammography). We show that adaptation improves performance on IN and close-OOD data but often reduces performance on far-OOD data. Full fine-tuning provides the best tradeoff, while encoder-only LoRA is the strongest parameter-efficient alternative, outperforming standard LoRA and VPT under far-OOD shifts. Using Centered Kernel Alignment (CKA), we show that far-OOD degradation is strongly associated with drift in decoder representations, whereas encoder similarity alone does not explain robustness. This suggests encoder-only LoRA provides stronger robustness than standard LoRA by adapting the encoder to distribution shift in visual features, while preserving the decoder pathway. We further show that random 0-100 pixel jitter on prompts produces more robust and better performing models. We thus conclude that robust MedSAM adaptation requires the combined consideration of prompt noise exposure, domain shift, and representation preservation. We release our code: https://github.com/ImSounic/medsam-vpt
Conventional in-distribution evaluation can overestimate robustness when training and test data share recurring task-specific patterns or surface cues. This risk is especially relevant in social-engineering fraud detection, where attackers can preserve malicious intent while changing the scenario, impersonated entity, or wording. We study this problem as scenario-level out-of-distribution (SL-OOD) detection for SMS and voice phishing, where entire attack scenarios are held out from training while the label space remains fixed. This setting tests whether models can generalize to unseen attack scenarios using decision-relevant evidence rather than familiar scenario-specific cues. Using this SL-OOD evaluation, we find that high in-distribution performance does not reliably predict held-out robustness across feature-, encoder-, and decoder-based baselines. We interpret this gap as scenario memorization: reliance on recurring scenario-specific lexical or entity cues rather than decision-relevant evidence. We propose ECoG, an evidence-consistent generative framework that combines evidence-span supervision with a rationale-label consistency objective during training. On the 0.5B decoder, relative to the same backbone trained without consistency regularization, ECoG raises Macro-F1 on OOD challenging instances by 3.22 points, reduces the share of predictions whose generated rationale supports the opposite label by 4.22 points, and increases token-level overlap with reference evidence spans by 8.38 points; the reduction in prediction-rationale inconsistency is consistent across four decoder backbones. These results suggest that compact generative detectors can benefit from evidence supervision and rationale-label consistency under social-engineering shift.
AI-generated image manipulation localization identifies edited pixels, but its OOD performance lags behind image-level detection partly because pixel supervision entangles forensic evidence with dataset-specific mask geometry and semantic boundaries. Extending image-level distribution alignment to localization, we construct COCO-ControlNet with source-image Canny edges and depth maps to align semantics and geometry, improving OOD performance across multiple localizers. Yet tighter Mask-VAE Reconstruction Alignment (Mask-VAE) underperforms COCO-ControlNet, showing that VAE reconstruction artifacts transfer poorly to local diffusion-inpainting artifacts. We also identify \emph{boundary adhesion}, where fine-tuned segmentation models snap predictions to semantic object contours rather than true manipulation boundaries. These findings motivate GAP-SAM, which encodes an image and its frozen VAE reconstruction into a global artifact token and injects it into SAM3's feature pyramid via zero-gated FiLM before pixel decoding. Without prescribing a spatial region, this token modulates dense decoding to preserve localization while suppressing semantic-boundary shortcuts. Across six datasets, GAP-SAM averages 79.8 Pixel-F1, outperforming the strongest prior method by 12.6 points. It also performs best at every tested severity of JPEG compression, Gaussian blur, and resizing.
Understanding object dynamics requires not only predicting future trajectories but also examining whether a model captures the physical properties that govern motion. However, existing benchmarks rarely expose object-level physical properties as explicit evaluation targets alongside trajectory forecasting. To address this gap, we introduce \emph{ExPhy}, a multi-object trajectory forecasting benchmark containing 24,000 simulated physical scenes with explicit object-level labels for mass, friction, and restitution. ExPhy provides observed and future trajectories together with an in-distribution (ID) split and two out-of-distribution (OOD) splits over physical parameters (OOD-Parameter) and initial states (OOD-Initial) for jointly evaluating trajectory forecasting and physical property estimation. We further instantiate \textsc{PhyODE}, a physics-guided model with an explicit property interface that estimates physical properties from observed trajectories and uses them for differentiable future rollout. On the long-horizon OOD-Initial setting, \textsc{PhyODE} reduces ADE and FDE by 33.1\% and 31.0\%, respectively, compared with the strongest baseline. Zero-shot evaluation on ComPhy further assesses cross-benchmark transfer. Property-level analyses reveal that accurate trajectory forecasting does not necessarily imply accurate recovery of the underlying physical properties. Code and data are available at https://github.com/Zest86/ExPhy.
Vision-language-action (VLA) models improve robotic manipulation but remain vulnerable to compounding errors, scene changes, and off-trajectory states. Reinforcement learning can refine pretrained VLA policies, yet sparse success signals hinder exploration, while engineered dense rewards are costly and task-specific. Existing learned visual reward models often rely on static before-after observations, causing temporal ambiguity and weak discrimination between robustness-preserving variations and task-invalid failures under out-of-distribution (OOD) execution. We introduce Robo-Dopamine 2.0, a history- and OOD-aware process reward model with a pairwise prediction interface. It combines (1) history-conditioned pairwise rewards that use source-aligned reference panels for synthetic OOD queries and observed rollout history for online queries, while preserving the queried endpoints, and (2) an OOD-aware signed progress space that represents valid progress, robustness, failure, and recovery. A Signed-Hop Curriculum with transition-aware replay learns coarse execution ordering before fine-grained progress calibration. We also construct an OOD trajectory dataset and a five-family benchmark. Reference panels improve mean visual order consistency (VOC) from 0.967 to 0.986 and OOD-robust VOC from 0.906 to 0.958. With the same 400K pairwise-reward budget, Signed-Hop training with 25% replay reaches 0.9872 mean VOC, compared with 0.9858 for a matched-pool shuffled control. In downstream reinforcement learning, the full model achieves 86.8% mean RoboTwin success and 71/80 successful real-world insertions.
Transition-state (TS) structures define the energetic barriers and mechanistic pathways of elementary chemical reactions, yet their identification remains computationally demanding because conventional saddle-point searches require expensive quantum-mechanical calculations. Recent machine-learning approaches have accelerated TS generation by predicting structures from reaction endpoint information, but they primarily learn geometric correspondence between endpoints and TSs, leaving the structural transformations underlying elementary reactions implicitly represented. To address this limitation, we introduce TransTS, a reaction-transformation-aware framework for generalizable TS generation from atom-mapped reactant-product pairs. TransTS explicitly learns atom-level structural transformations between reaction endpoints and integrates them with a unified atom-aligned geometric representation of reactants, TSs and products, enabling reaction-aware equivariant generation of TS geometries. TransTS is designed to provide reliable TS initial guesses for subsequent quantum-chemical refinement, where generated structures are evaluated not only by geometric similarity but also by their ability to converge to validated saddle points and recover the intended reaction pathways. Across IID and zero-shot OOD benchmarks, TransTS demonstrates improved TS initialization quality, with particularly strong generalization to unseen reaction distributions. On the challenging GDB-10-rxn and GDB-17-rxn OOD benchmarks, TransTS generates TS candidates that more frequently converge to validated saddle points and recover the intended elementary reactions after refinement than existing approaches under the same training regime. Scaling reaction coverage and model capacity further improves both geometric fidelity and refinement outcomes.
Ellen Su, Andres Potapczynski, Shikai Qiu +2cs.LG cs.CL
Modern systems are increasingly expected to transfer across tasks not specified during training. What data facilitates generalization in these new, unanticipated settings? One hypothesis is that data with more structural information could contain shared circuits and subprograms that could be recycled in a wider array of downstream settings. Epiplexity, a recently proposed measure of the structural information a compute-bounded learner can extract from data, provides a mechanism to reason about this relationship. In this paper, we show how to operationalize epiplexity as an online training signal for data selection and synthetic data generation. For selection, we fit scaling laws to the training loss curves of natural data domains to predict the expected epiplexity gain as a function of training tokens, and use this signal to adaptively determine the sampling weights over domains during training. For synthetic data generation, we define a generator's reward as the change in learner epiplexity over a buffer of previously generated data and use REINFORCE policy gradients to guide the generator toward an epiplexity-maximizing distribution. In both cases, higher epiplexity predicts improved downstream performance on zero-shot and fine-tuning based tasks, supporting the hypothesis that data rich in structural information yield representations that transfer across domains.
Federated Learning is a distributed machine learning paradigm that trains a global model by aggregating local clients without sharing private data of each client. Federated Distillation (FD) builds upon this paradigm by leveraging knowledge distillation to exchange soft predictions on proxy data instead of model parameters, enabling more efficient communication and supporting heterogeneous model collaboration. However, FD models trained on In-Distribution data are hardly adapted to Out-of-Distribution (OOD) scenarios. In this paper, we propose a domain-aware proxy selection framework to better adopt proxy data for OOD problems. The experimental results show that the proposed models effectively address the challenges of distribution shifts under OOD with and without proxy data by achieving average 82.9\% and 80.6\% over existing works on standard benchmarks. The codes and data are released in https://anonymous.4open.science/r/DPS-FD-8596.
Mainstream World-Action Models (WAMs) adapt pretrained video generation models (VGMs) for robot control, transferring their learned dynamics prior for action prediction. These VGMs are typically trained in a variational autoencoder (VAE) latent space. However, the VAE latent space is optimized for pixel reconstruction, which rewards fine appearance detail and leaves the action prediction fragile under visual shifts. Recent works build WAMs in semantic latent space, which are more robust to appearance shifts. However, these models cannot leverage the large-scale VGM pretraining that exists only in VAE space. To overcome this dilemma, we propose Robust-WAM, a general post-training method for video-generation-based WAMs that preserves the VAE-based generative path and adds a lightweight semantic foresight alignment objective on the action stream. This retains the large-scale VGM pretraining while grounding actions in appearance-invariant dynamics that stay reliable under illumination shifts and other visual out-of-distribution conditions. Specifically, we employ learnable query tokens to bring future-scene semantics into the action stream by aligning their output hidden states with the semantic foresight of future ground-truth frames. To establish the temporal correspondence between each query and the future step it describes, we give it the positional encoding of the matching action tokens. Experiments on out-of-distribution generalization simulation benchmarks and a real-robot setup show that our Robust-WAM consistently improves the success rates of multiple WAM baselines without sacrificing in-distribution performance.
A closed-set detector for autonomous driving must assign every object one of a fixed set of labels. On an object outside that set (a horse-drawn carriage, road debris, livestock on a rural road) it can only force a confident but wrong specific label or drop the object. Prior work in this series replaced the flat label set with a hierarchical taxonomy and a runtime abstraction rule, but evaluated it only on the boxes a closed detector already produces. This paper takes the layer open-world: we place taxonomic abstraction on top of class-agnostic region proposals so objects the closed detector never boxes can still be classified or flagged; we report a feasibility study of three open-world signals (class-agnostic segmentation, appearance-based out-of-distribution scoring, monocular depth) that shows why no single 2D cue suffices and how they compose; and we run the evaluation the earlier papers could not, a ground-truth leave-classes-out benchmark on real annotated objects. Holding out seven COCO classes and classifying their 235 ground-truth crops, a flat closed head emits a confident wrong specific label 100% of the time (37% of them in the wrong super-category, e.g. an animal named as a vehicle), whereas the hierarchical layer emits zero confident wrong specific labels and safely handles 94% of the objects (a correct super-category, or an explicit UNKNOWN OBSTACLE). We are explicit that this is a safety result, not a specificity one: the correct super-category is recovered only 26% of the time and the remaining 69% are conservatively flagged unknown. The contribution is an open-world perception layer that never makes a confident categorical mistake on an out-of-vocabulary object, together with an honest account of its cost.
Malena Loza, Felipe Grijalva, Eva Milara +3cs.CV cs.LG
Tabular-to-image methods that convert tabular data into visual representations have emerged as a novel paradigm for leveraging the high performance of deep learning models. Despite their advantages, the robustness of these methods under distribution shifts remains under explored. Test-Time Augmentation (TTA) is an effective approach in image classification to improve model generalization and robustness, where predictions over multiple transformed views of each input are aggregated. This work evaluates the impact of TTA techniques on predictive performance under Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) for representations generated by tabular-to-image methods. Six tabular-to-image encoding methods were considered: TINTO, IGTD, DeepInsight, BIE, DistanceMatrix, Fotomics. Twenty-five TTA techniques were used, organized into six types: Geometric, Photometric, Structural, Frequency/Encoding, Mixup, and Composite. We employed two datasets from the TableShift benchmark (HELOC and Voting) that provide in-distribution and OOD test subsets designed to evaluate the effect of distribution shifts on tabular data. The results indicate that TTA improves OOD performance, with composite and photometric strategies providing the best trade-off between robustness and variance. In contrast, frequency-domain transformations that alter the encoder's feature-to-intensity mapping consistently degrade performance. These findings highlight TTA as a promising approach for improving the robustness and generalization of classifiers trained on image representations derived from tabular data, particularly under distribution shifts.
Muhammad Umar Farooq, Kutub Uddin, Awais Khan +1cs.CV
Security-critical biometric and forensic applications require accurate predictions and reliable confidence estimates, particularly under distribution shift. This challenge is especially acute for deepfake detection, where foundation-model-based detectors often exhibit overconfident predictions on out-of-distribution manipulations, which limits their suitability for operational deployment. We propose an uncertainty-aware deepfake detection framework that identifies manipulations through inconsistencies across complementary evidence sources. The framework integrates three streams: a visual stream based on an adapted CLIP encoder, a semantic stream that models consistency among facial attributes through differentiable constraints, and a structural stream that captures class-dependent dependency patterns between semantic and forensic features. To effectively combine these signals, we introduce Inter-Branch Disagreement Calibration (IBDC), a disagreement-aware uncertainty modeling mechanism that links predictive uncertainty to conflicts among evidence streams. Extensive cross-dataset experiments using FaceForensics++ as the training source demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves state-of-the-art generalization across multiple out-of-distribution benchmarks while consistently improving calibration and selective prediction performance. These results show that combining complementary evidence with disagreement-aware uncertainty provides a robust foundation for trustworthy and well-calibrated deepfake detection under distribution shift.
Ben Glickenhaus, Katherine Thai, Jenna Russell +4cs.CL
We present Pangram 4, the latest deep-learning-based AI-text classification model from Pangram Labs. We achieve an AUROC of 0.9916 with a false positive rate of 0.0041% and a false negative rate of 0.3396%. In addition to its increased overall accuracy compared with Pangram 3, Pangram 4 exhibits superior out-of-distribution generalization and robustness to adversarial attacks. Another novel contribution of Pangram 4 is its improved ability to distinguish fine-grained edits and mixed AI-human co-authored text. We demonstrate improvements to both boundary detection tasks and the detection of interleaved AI assistance. Finally, we report metrics on standard AI detection benchmarks showing that Pangram 4 achieves state-of-the-art performance on the AI text detection task across a wide variety of settings and domains.
Malena Loza, David Chushig-Muzo, Eva Milara +3cs.LG cs.AI
Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) have emerged as novel approaches for tabular predictive tasks, demonstrating competitive predictive performance to ensemble tree-based models. Most TFMs are trained and evaluated on independent and identically distributed data, but this assumption changes in real-world scenarios due to distribution shifts, which compromise the robustness of models. Limited research has been conducted of TFMs under distribution shifts. We present an empirical evaluation of Out-Of-Distribution (OOD) performance of nine TFMs, spanning diverse pre-training strategies and architectures: TabPFNv2, TabPFNv2.5, TabPFNv2.6, TabPFNv3, TabICL, TabICLv2, Mitra, LimiX and TabFM. Three real-world datasets from the TableShift study were considered (HELOC, Voting, Childhood Lead), covering label, socioeconomic, and geographic shift types. Our results show that all evaluated TFMs degrade systematically under distribution shift regardless of pre-training strategy, with shift gaps ranging from 0.003 to 0.060 depending on shift type. The relationship between in-distribution and OOD predictive performance documented for classical tabular models extends into TFMs. We also identified a scalability gap, as high-performing models demand significant memory and computational resources beyond what standard deployment infrastructure can support. This study extends existing benchmarks for OOD in tabular data, providing evidence to support their adoption in high-stakes domains characterized by structural distribution shifts.
Neural network misclassifications exhibit characteristic spectral instability in internal activations that is invisible at the output layer. This phenomenon is identified and formalized as Spectral Drift -- the frequency-domain distance between consecutive layer activations -- with empirical validation showing that failures exhibit significantly higher drift than correct predictions (1.9% increase, p<0.001). This spectral signature emerges during internal processing but becomes masked in final outputs, explaining why confidence-based detection methods struggle. This work introduces Self-Detecting Neural Networks (SDNN), a framework that monitors spectral dynamics across network depth using Short-Time Fourier Transform, wavelet decomposition, and statistical moments to capture multi-scale spectral features. A lightweight detector network (5% parameter overhead) learns to identify failure-indicative patterns via curriculum learning on progressively challenging distributions: natural misclassifications, distribution shifts, and adversarial perturbations. Experiments on CIFAR-10 demonstrate that SDNN achieves 79.0 +/- 25.3% AUROC across three seeds, substantially outperforming confidence-based baselines including MaxSoftmax (50.5%) and Energy Score (52.9%) by approximately 25-30 percentage points. Ablation studies reveal that wavelet decomposition and statistical features make consistent contributions, while STFT's role remains unclear. This work establishes spectral analysis of internal activations as a promising direction for neural network reliability, revealing diagnostic information inaccessible to output-based approaches.
Existing research shows that AI-generated text detection classifiers achieve strong in-distribution (ID) performance but do not maintain the same performance on out-of-distribution (OOD) texts, suggesting overfitting to dataset-specific features. However, combining different training datasets doesn't always improve performance and, in some cases, can even encourage shortcut learning. To address this issue, we fine-tune BERT-tiny models with Bayesian classification heads to select texts across three different datasets to use as a consolidated training set. We trained three different classifiers: fine-tuned DeBERTa-V3-large and ModernBERT-large classifiers via empirical X-risk minimization, and an MCGrad model that calibrates the predictions from the ModernBERT-large classifier. The DeBERTa-V3-large-large classifier achieves a mean score of 0.882 on the PAN 2026 test set across five metrics: AUROC, $F_1$, C@1, Brier score, and $F_{0.5u}$. ModernBERT-large achieves a score of 0.96 while MCGrad achieves the best score of the three with a mean score of 0.974, ranking second on the leaderboard. Our results highlight that careful dataset curation can lead to strong OOD performance. We release our ModernBERT-large and DeBERTa-V3-large models at https://huggingface.co/collections/ShantanuT01/panclef-2026 .
We investigate which language model evasion attacks survive state-of-the-art adversarial fine-tuning, developing strategies that sweep the top 5 positions on the ELOQUENT 2026 Voight-Kampff leaderboard. While adversarial fine-tuning trivially closes the 2025 winning evasion recipes, we uncover a fundamental asymmetry in detector vulnerability: pushing generated text out of the detector's training distribution reliably defeats adversarial detection, whereas pulling it into the distribution (e.g., mimicking human training data) fails completely. Exploiting this, we introduce two novel out-of-distribution attack families - cross-decade register attacks and modernist stream-of-consciousness form. Both strategies easily bypass adversarial closure, achieving up to approximately 50x higher fool rates than previous methods while preserving naturalness. Furthermore, experiments show that the obvious deployer countermeasure (augmenting training data with period prose) fails to close the vulnerability. Our findings show that the tested detector families, including adversarially fine-tuned ones, exhibit persistent vulnerabilities under structural out-of-distribution shifts, a mechanism that directly powers our leading competition performance.
Material property prediction (MPP) infers key properties from chemical composition and structure, accelerating the discovery and optimization of novel materials. In the realm of MPP, MatBench is a widely accepted benchmarking tool that defines over ten significant problems and provides the paradigm of performance evaluation for AI prediction models. Even though MatBench works well in benchmarking the performances of prediction models on in-distribution (ID) tasks and datasets, it lacks the ability to reflect their performances on out-of-distribution (OOD) material data, resulting failure in new material discovery. By combining the pipelines of MatBench and the existing researches on OOD performance evaluation, this study enables a huge space of benchmarking configurations, comprehensively reflecting the performances, abilities, and disadvantages of various AI prediction models. This work reports that the discrepancy of performances at different configuration values is huge and can be illustrated with prior knowledge and novel insights, therefore consideration of causal effect of configurations on performance results is necessary. In case of the impossibility of enumerative benchmarking at every configuration, this work further proposes AutoMatBench, an automatic toolkit with Bayesian optimization. Experiments with AutoMatBench reports that, within twelve steps of optimization, the similar results with MatBench and former OOD research can be accessed while more than half of the cost are saved. Besides, this tool also yields more essential findings on MPP benchmarking, positively contributing to the cost and efficiency of new material discovery.
Medical Vision-Language Models (VLMs) exhibit strong zero-shot performance, yet their effectiveness still declines on out-of-distribution (OOD) data due to domain shifts and class bias inherited from large-scale pretraining. Existing few-shot adaptation methods typically introduce additional trainable components, which can be unstable in extremely low-data regimes (e.g., 1-shot), and lack robustness on different medical data. We present TCLA, a purely training-free few-shot adaptation method for Medical VLMs, which is fast and model-agnostic. TCLA corrects inference logits based on a small set of support samples, boosting pretrained VLMs performance by improving inter-class deconfusion and reducing domain shift. Extensive experiments on nine datasets across multiple medical imaging modalities including X-ray, Ultrasound, MRI, CT, Histopathology, demonstrate that TCLA consistently improves OOD performance of Medical VLMs and, in most of cases, outperforms existing training-based adaptation methods.
Md Faraz Kabir Khan, Saeed Anwar, Ghulam Mubashar Hassancs.CV cs.AI
The rapid advancement of generative AI has outpaced our ability to reliably detect its outputs, particularly when detectors encounter generators they have not seen before. We introduce GenSyn10, a CIFAR-10-aligned synthetic image dataset of 60,000 images (10 classes, 32$\times$32, 50k/10k split) generated using three architecturally diverse state-of-the-art models: FLUX.2-dev (Rectified Flow Transformer), HunyuanImage-3.0 (MoE Transformer), and Qwen-Image-2512 (Multimodal Diffusion Transformer), to advance research in AI-generated image detection. A central challenge in this domain is that detectors perform well on known generators but degrade on unseen ones. GenSyn10 addresses this limitation by curating data from multiple contemporary architectures under a standardized generation protocol, enabling controlled and systematic evaluation of out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization to novel generators. Images are generated using a template-based prompt engine and downsampled to ensure consistency. We evaluate 17 image classification models under a four-stage protocol: real-data baseline, zero-shot transfer, fine-tuning, and retention. Despite a measurable domain gap, CIFAR-10-trained models achieve up to 96.86\% zero-shot accuracy on GenSyn10, increasing to 99.88\% after fine-tuning. In binary real-vs-synthetic classification, fine-tuned models achieve 97-99.9\% accuracy on seen generators but drop to 79-96\% on images from an unseen generator, highlighting persistent limitations in OOD generalization. These results establish GenSyn10 as a controlled benchmark for studying synthetic image detection beyond single-generator settings, supporting research on robustness, domain adaptation, and cross-generator generalization.
Continuous video anomaly detection is dominated by reactive Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) that collapses spatiotemporal features into scalar scores. We introduce PULS (Predictive Unified Latent Space), a continuous semantic world-model pipeline comprising two modules: a 490M-parameter KSD Bridge (Kinematic-to-Semantic Distillation) and a 16.8M-parameter Anticipatory State Predictor (ASP). The KSD Bridge maps V-JEPA 2 physical tensors into the 2048-d Qwen3-VL-Embedding-2B text-aligned hypersphere, trained on a subset of UCF-Crime. This translation alone yields a chunk-level AUROC of 0.8994 for UCF-Crime and 0.8162 for out-of-distribution XD-Violence without MIL or hierarchical fusion. We introduce and validate the Latent Clarity Hypothesis: because JEPA's temporal predictor discards aleatoric pixel noise while preserving kinematics, anticipated future representations are more semantically separable than observed presents. The ASP sharpens these anticipated future latents, achieving 44.5% mean 14-way zero-shot VQA accuracy (exceeding observation baseline by +9.6 pp). Applying the ASP to Observation Tensors collapses accuracy to 7.3% (random chance), proving Anticipation and Observation occupy distinct sub-manifolds. A Triple-Track Lead-Time protocol with an L1-surprise gate yields a peak +8.9 pp anticipatory advantage at T-0.5s (p < 0.001, N = 1,000 permutation), separating physical anticipation from static scene priors. Zero-shot transfer to XD-Violence confirms that Newtonian-invariant kinematic representations generalize out-of-distribution.
The rapid scaling of over-parameterized machine learning architectures, particularly LLMs, raises a profound crisis: do these systems exhibit genuine intelligence, or are they merely sophisticated statistical pattern matchers? Classical flat Euclidean statistics cannot differentiate continuous interpolation from the autonomous discovery of novel causal laws. To resolve this, we introduce Statistically Meaningful Geometry (SMG), a framework modeling over-parameterized learning systems as infinite-dimensional non-parametric Orlicz fiber bundles. We prove that under persistent out-of-distribution (OOD) stimuli governed by unmodeled causal mechanisms, continuous optimization fails. Unmodeled variance is rejected by the visible horizontal base manifold, leaking into the unobservable vertical fiber space and generating an accumulation of Active Acausal Tension. Driven by the statistical manifold's non-linear curvature, this tension inevitably strikes a conjugate focal boundary ($T_{\text{crit}} = π^2 / K_{\text{max}}$), triggering localized volumetric collapse and a catastrophic matrix singularity ($[G_f]^{-1} \to \infty$). We demonstrate this geometric breakdown acts as the strict non-equilibrium trigger for a Gauge Symmetry Break (GSB). The system purges hidden tension from unobservable gauge redundancies, spontaneously crystallizing a new, mathematically independent horizontal coordinate axis. This non-parametric phase transition registers as a discrete $+1.0$ integer step-jump in observable Structural G-Entropy. By decoupling parameter charts and subjecting emergent axes to a Minimal Energy Path Criterion and a Causal Invariance Filter, we distinguish genuine discovery from malignant hallucinations. Ultimately, SMG provides a parameter-free, falsifiable dashboard to mathematically certify true intelligence, transforming AI for Science into an engine of autonomous paradigm shifts.
Neural networks are increasingly used to infer hidden physical structure from dynamical observations, yet it remains unclear whether their out-of-distribution performance reflects transferable physical rule learning. We address this question in a controlled inverse problem: reconstructing interaction graphs of a kinetic Ising model from Glauber magnetization trajectories. Across convolutional, graph, Transformer, and hybrid architectures, we find that data-driven training produces distinct and reproducible statistical strategies under topology and temperature shifts. Edge-population diagnostics reveal that Transformer-based models tend to preserve the link density of the training ensemble, whereas convolutional models can collapse toward sparse- or no-link predictions that appear out-of-distribution stable by exploiting the majority no-link class. Thus, high in-distribution accuracy and apparent out-of-distribution robustness do not necessarily imply a learned dynamics-to-structure rule. Instead, neural reconstruction can be governed by architecture-dependent statistical priors. Our results identify a concrete failure mode of standard data-driven learning in physical inverse problems and motivate rule-guided principles for machine-learning-assisted scientific discovery.
Kristina Zhang, Junior Chinomso Okoroafor, Benjamin Maltbie +3cs.LG cs.AI
Training AIs to be risk-averse in resources could offer a failsafe in the event that AIs turn out misaligned. Misaligned but risk-averse AIs would tend to prefer low-risk, low-reward strategies like cooperation over high-risk, high-reward strategies like rebellion, limiting the downsides of any misalignment. But we can only feasibly train AIs to be risk-averse on low-stakes gambles, and we will only be safe if their risk aversion generalizes to astronomically-high-stakes gambles. Will it? To shed light on this question, we introduce RiskAverseOOD: a benchmark for measuring how well risk aversion generalizes out of distribution. We then offer some initial results. Using a variety of methods to make Qwen3-8B choose risk-aversely when the stakes are low, we find that we can induce substantial risk aversion when the stakes are astronomically high. Our models' learned risk aversion generalizes at least partially across 98 orders of magnitude. From a baseline 2% rate of choosing a safe `Cooperate' option, we see rates around 70% (SFT and tie training), 52% (DPO), and 39% (activation steering). In another experiment, our fine-tuned reward model reliably scores risk-averse reasoning above risk-neutral or excessively risk-averse alternatives (99.6% pairwise accuracy). We replicate these effects at different scales (Qwen3-1.7B and Qwen3-14B) and across model families (Gemma-3-12B-IT and Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct). Overall, we find that risk aversion learned at low stakes can generalize OOD to astronomically high stakes, though not yet consistently enough to serve as a reliable failsafe. Achieving that level of consistency is an open problem.
Large vision-language models can reason over multimodal inputs by generating textual chains of thought (CoT). A key capability exhibited in CoT reasoning is self-reflection: revisiting earlier decisions and correcting previous errors. However, existing LVLMs often fail to properly attend to visual inputs during reflection, limiting their ability to translate feedback into grounded corrections, especially for out-of-distribution images. To address this issue, we propose a novel reinforcement learning training framework VRRL, with two components explicitly designed to elicit visually grounded self-reflection. First, we randomly mask trajectory prefixes during training to emphasize recovery from incorrect intermediate predictions rather than making early mistakes. Second, we introduce buffered roll-ins from an experience replay buffer to expose the model to diverse failure states that it must learn to correct. We evaluate our approach on visual grounding tasks involving tables and charts, as well as spatial navigation benchmarks. While off-the-shelf and conventionally fine-tuned models degrade substantially under distribution shift, our method substantially improves average out-of-distribution accuracy over standard RL and reflection-oriented fine-tuning baselines by using self-reflection effectively.
Linear probes can be used to detect behaviors and concepts inside language model activations, but may fail to transfer to out-of-distribution examples. When studying the generalization performance of Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct probes over 3 held-out deception detection datasets, we find that projecting inputs onto a small subset of principal components (PCs) from the training distribution of activations enables cross-domain transfer that nearly matches the performance of probes trained directly on the test distribution. Furthermore, we find that PC interpretations can be used to find a subset of those transferable PCs. By using an LLM judge to score each PC on whether its most/ least activating examples imply a transferable deception direction, then probing on the highest-scoring PCs, we close the baseline-to-oracle gap by 78% on Insider Trading Report and by 25% on Sandbagging. The directions a source probe weights heavily appear to encode source-specific surface features, while the directions that actually transfer appear to encode the same contrast more abstractly, in a way natural language descriptions can capture. Broadly, our results suggest that the OOD robustness of probes is largely determined by subspace selection.
In multi-source image fusion scenarios, heterogeneous inputs are typically driven by distinct generative mechanisms and can be viewed as a composition of multiple causal systems. However, cross-system discrepancy (CSD) and cross-system entanglement (CSE) commonly arise during the fusion process, often leading to significant performance degradation under out-of-distribution (OOD) predictions. To address the CSD and CSE issues, we propose the additive causal construction (ACC) framework, which characterizes information fusion at two levels: firstly, it establishes causal "anchors" shared among multiple systems through intervention consistency to enable causal graph transferability (CGT); and secondly, it formalizes the fusion process as causal construction and models the reliability of constructed paths through uncertainty quantification to ensure causal graph reconfigurability (CGR). Building upon this, we revisit the traditional causal representation learning (CRL) with ACC and propose ACC-CRL as a learnable instantiation of the framework. The method explores joint causal content representations across systems via content-mechanism decoupling, and performs response alignment under shared anchors to mitigate CSD. Furthermore, it incorporates structural uncertainty to adaptively regulate the fusion process, thereby suppressing unstable CSE. We conduct systematic experiments on synthetic data (ColorMNIST) and real-world multi-center medical imaging tasks (microvascular invasion (MVI) prediction). The results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly improves OOD generalization while maintaining in-distribution (ID) performance, validating the effectiveness and robustness of the ACC-CRL strategy based on mechanism alignment and uncertainty modeling in open environments.