Linear Probing Provides Robust and Efficient Detection of Machine-Generated Text

Distinguishing machine-generated text (MGT) from human-written text (HWT) becomes increasingly important due to potential misuse. However, most supervised detectors often degrade out-of-domain (OOD) and require large, diverse training sets. In this work, we analyze the linearity and quality of MGT representations and show that simple linear probes outperform a wide range of detectors while being substantially more sample-efficient. We first show that MGT and HWT latent representations are linearly separable in low-dimensional space, and provide a plausible explanation for this separability through systematic differences in their representation quality. Motivated by these insights, we train two variants of simple linear probes and evaluate them across 4 benchmarks against 16 baselines. Probes consistently improve OOD detection (+11 AUC), requiring solely ${<}100$ samples to reach near-peak performance. We show that this transferability arises because probes recover a shared latent MGT direction that generalizes across diverse settings. Finally, we demonstrate that probing vectors capture a continuous spectrum of ``machineness'', highlighting their potential for fine-grained estimation of AI-edited text. Overall, our work provides insights into latent-space differences between MGT and HWT and demonstrates the potential of linear probes as as robust and sample-efficient MGT detectors. We release our code on~\href{https://github.com/gerritq/mgt_probes}{github}.

Beyond Post-Hoc Temperature Scaling: Bilevel Optimization for LLM Calibration

Preference alignment often makes large language models (LLMs) overconfident and poorly calibrated. Traditional post-hoc temperature scaling is inherently domain-dependent: a temperature fitted on one domain does not generalize across domains. This motivates us to modify model parameters during training to improve calibration. We propose maximizing the entropy of predictive distributions as the calibration objective, which directly targets overconfidence by discouraging overly concentrated predictions. Inspired by temperature scaling, we realize this through a bilevel optimization formulation, where the lower level trains the model under a parametric loss and the upper level selects loss hyperparameters to maximize entropy. To make the framework practical at LLM scale, we adopt an efficient first-order approximation that avoids explicit second-order computation. Across both multiple-choice and open-ended generative question answering, experiments demonstrate that our method yields well-calibrated LLMs with particular advantages in out-of-domain generalization.

Topological Out-of-Domain Generalization in Dynamical Systems Reconstruction

Predicting the behavior of dynamical systems (DS) beyond the dynamical and parameter regimes observed in training is a pivotal and essentially unresolved problem in scientific ML. It is central to any good scientific theory, which we expect to be able to make predictions about regimes not covered by currently available data. Recent hierarchical and hyper-network guided approaches for DS reconstruction (DSR) enable training on many DS simultaneously, and revealed that extracted latent features are often related to crucial control parameters of the underlying DS that varied across the training corpus. However, true out-of-domain forecasting abilities of these models, e.g., across tipping points, remain limited, and fine-tuning, or even full model retraining, on time series from the new dynamical regime is usually required. Here, we mathematically analyze the root of these limitations in previous model formulations and identify three core shortcomings rooted in a mismatch between structural assumptions of the reconstruction model and typical properties of physical systems. We propose a combination of remedies for these shortcomings, most importantly feature splitting, and furthermore derive a closed-form bound on the reliable extrapolation range. We demonstrate empirically that our techniques allow for accurate zero-shot prediction into new dynamical regimes, outside the observed training regime, as, e.g., encountered across tipping points.