ShardMeter: Sharded and Geo-Distributed Training Without the Guesswork

Training large-scale AI models often outgrows a single data center, demanding sharded, multi-cluster, and decentralized training. However, the huge space of resource allocations makes exhaustive benchmarking and manual tuning impractical, while performance depends on tightly coupled factors like model size, GPU memory, batch size, bandwidth, and sharding strategy. We introduce ShardMeter, a lightweight analytical performance model that predicts the end-to-end runtime of transformer-based workloads across arbitrary sharded, distributed, and even decentralized training. Given a model's characteristics and a target hardware topology, ShardMeter estimates per-GPU and per-island throughput, training cost, total wall-clock time, and identifies performance bottlenecks. Our analysis reveals diminishing-return regimes as island size increases, quantifies transitions between compute- and communication-bound scaling, evaluates hyperparameter trade-offs, and models cost-throughput for large-scale decentralized training. ShardMeter exposes these insights to quickly explore the configuration space, choose near-optimal deployment plans, and avoid costly trial and error.

NRCD: An Open Database of Collegiate Running with Unified Performance Standardization

Collegiate running in the United States generates thousands of race results annually in cross country and track and field, yet no large-scale dataset has been publicly available for research. Existing websites such as Athletic.net, MileSplit, and TFRRS host results but do not support bulk download, restricting prior analyses to ~500 performances, often skewing studies toward male athletes. We introduce the National Running Club Database (NRCD), the first openly available collegiate running dataset at scale: 143,868 approved performances from 31,351 athletes across 1,423 meets in four sports (cross country (XC), indoor and outdoor track, and road races), 36.2% women, spanning 2003-2026. Meets from August 2023 onward carry comprehensive course distance, elevation gain and loss, weather at race time, and track venue metadata (99.9% of XC rows with weather fields). NRCD is community-governed through open submission and expert approval and is maintained as a live database whose meet volume has grown yearly. We release a unified performance standardization framework that operationalizes established distance, elevation, and heat adjustments in one pipeline; XC-only validation; heat is a Hadley-band heuristic. We recommend gender-stratified modeling. On XC, full standardization lowers median within-athlete cross-meet variability by 51.1% (women) and 35.4% (men) versus raw times. We release the dataset and pipeline with a Python package `nrcd' under FAIR principles, supporting longitudinal athlete modeling, environmental-confounder studies, and gender-equity research in collegiate sport.

RAG-Stack: Co-Optimizing RAG Serving Performance and Quality

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), which augments large language model (LLM) generation with information retrieved from databases, has become a widely used approach for knowledge-intensive applications. Modern RAG systems, however, expose many configuration choices, such as retrieval indexes, model selections, and how models invoke retrieval. Each configuration yields a different trade-off between answer quality and serving performance, making it challenging to choose the optimal setting for a specific application deployment. We present RAG-Stack, a framework for efficiently discovering quality-performance Pareto frontiers across diverse RAG applications and serving systems. RAG-Stack consists of RAG-PE, an iterative design-space exploration algorithm that selects the next RAG configuration to evaluate; RAG-IR, a workload abstraction for diverse RAG algorithms; and RAG-CM, a performance model that predicts the optimal deployment and serving performance on the given hardware. Together, these components allow RAG-Stack to search the joint algorithm-system configuration space without deploying every candidate and to transfer an existing Pareto frontier to a new serving system. Given the same number of optimization iterations across diverse datasets, the Pareto frontiers found by RAG-Stack cover 52.5% to 153.2% more of the normalized quality-performance space than those found by state-of-the-art configuration-search methods evaluated over the same RAG design space.

Think Before You Grid-Search: Floor-First Triage for LLM Serving

LLM serving optimization typically benchmarks many configurations and reaches for heavy profilers when latency targets are missed. We argue for the reverse discipline: estimation is the analytical layer of profiling -- without it, optimization degenerates to grid search. Floor First is a residual-driven triage workflow. Each decode step is modeled as a five-dimensional resource vector (HBM bytes, FLOPs, network bytes, network messages, KV capacity); summing within a resource and maximizing across resources gives an optimistic floor, the plain sum a pessimistic one. Where a measurement lands inside this [max, sum] interval reads out overlap quality before any profiler is opened, and profilers escalate only on residuals above a stated threshold. Deployment alternatives are compared by wall ordering -- which resource wall binds first as load grows -- rather than by point benchmarks. The account is compositional: new attention or state-space variants enter by declaring one module, and the workflow ships as a zero-dependency calculator plus an agent skill that enforces the discipline in agentic optimization loops. As a case study we analyze a DeepSeek-V3.2-style 671B MoE/MLA model on 16 NVIDIA H20 GPUs, whose ridge point of ~74 FLOP/byte (vs ~590 for H100) makes it an extreme decode-oriented part. The floors show TP16 decoding is KV-capacity-limited to ~70 concurrent 8K requests; sparse attention removes the KV-bandwidth term but not the capacity wall; an EP16+DP-attention layout accepts slightly worse same-batch weight traffic for an order-of-magnitude higher capacity wall (~644) -- while single-stream latency favors TP by 2.4x. The layout judgment is thus a computable function of the operating point, explaining why production deployments on identical hardware have shipped opposite attention layouts.

Attention at the Theoretical Minimum: A Mathematics of Arrays Framework for Memory-Optimal Transformer Kernels

The attention mechanism is the dominant computational bottleneck in modern transformer-based AI. Its standard implementation incurs quadratic memory traffic in the sequence length~$n$, and DRAM accesses cost 100--1000$\times$ more energy than arithmetic operations on contemporary hardware, so any analysis focused solely on FLOP counts fundamentally mischaracterises the bottleneck. We present a Mathematics of Arrays (MoA) reformulation of scaled dot-product attention and its numerically stable softmax, deriving a Denotational Normal Form (DNF) that eliminates all intermediate arrays -- including the implicit transposed-key buffer and every softmax temporary -- by algebraic construction rather than empirical tuning. The DNF achieves $O(n_{dk} + n{_{dv}})$ data movement versus $O(n^2 + n_{dk} + n_{dv})$ for the standard implementation, where $n$ is the sequence length, $dk$ is the key dimensionality and $dv$ the value dimensionality, and is verified numerically against PyTorch at full double-precision floating-point on concrete inputs. Unlike hardware-specific accelerators or empirical tiling schemes such as FlashAttention, MoA simultaneously provides array fusion, shape-transformation correctness, and predictive cost models from a single algebraic framework. Memory minimality is a theorem established before any code is written. A predictive performance model projects $2$--$100\times$ speedup and $2$--$50\times$ energy reduction, with the advantage widening at exascale. The derivation establishes a formally verified pipeline from Python specification through (ONF) Operational Normal Form, and dimension-lifted hardware mapping, providing performance-portable AI kernels of direct relevance to DARPA edge-deployment and DOE exascale priorities.

Frontier: Towards Comprehensive and Accurate LLM Inference Simulation

Modern LLM serving is no longer homogeneous or monolithic. Production systems now combine disaggregated execution, complex parallelism, runtime optimizations, and stateful workloads such as reasoning, agents, and RL rollouts. Simulation is attractive for exploring this growing design space, yet existing simulators lack the architectural completeness and decision-grade fidelity it demands. Their monolithic-replica abstractions are ill-suited to disaggregated serving, while average-case analytical proxies can distort SLA predictions and even reverse optimization conclusions. We present Frontier, a discrete-event simulator for modern LLM inference serving. Frontier features a disaggregated abstraction. It captures the structure and dynamics of modern serving systems by modeling co-location, Prefill-Decode Disaggregation (PDD), and Attention-FFN Disaggregation (AFD) with role-specific cluster workers, incorporating key runtime optimizations (e.g., CUDA Graphs, speculative decoding) within the scheduler-batch-engine loop, and supporting stateful requests for emerging workloads. It further provides accurate and generalizable predictions of computation, communication, and memory costs across diverse serving scenarios with complex workload compositions. On 16-H800 GPU testbed, Frontier achieves an average throughput error below 4%. Compared with state-of-the-art simulators, it reduces end-to-end latency error from 44.9% to 6.4% under co-location and from 51.7% to 2.6% under disaggregation. It scales to over 1K GPUs on commodity CPUs and enables new use cases such as SLA-dependent Pareto frontier exploration, heterogeneous disaggregated allocation, agentic reasoning scheduling validation, and RL post-training reconfiguration.