A/B testing is the gold standard for evaluating product changes, but each experiment requires real user traffic, engineering effort, and weeks of measurement. We propose a simulation framework that predicts A/B test outcomes using LLM-powered agents conditioned on data-driven personas grounded in real user behavioral signals. Unlike prior work that relies on synthetic or rule-based personas, our agents are constructed from anonymized behavioral data-activity patterns, engagement signals, and inferred demographics-enabling more faithful population modeling. We frame A/B test simulation as a structured question task and systematically study (i) question design formats, (ii) the impact of persona data source and domain alignment, (iii) the trade-off between per-persona behavioral depth and population diversity, and (iv) efficient population subsampling. On a benchmark of 40 A/B tests spanning two metric types, our best configuration achieves 0.75-0.90 directional accuracy depending on the test metric, demonstrating that data-driven personas are a viable path toward fast, low-cost experiment pre-screening.
How a language model internally represents who is speaking, the Assistant, an assigned roleplay persona, or a narrated story character, remains underexplored. We study speaker representations using a dataset of user-expressed emotional text and corresponding model responses. We decompose three generation settings (Assistant, Roleplay, and Story) into sparse autoencoder features extracted at turn-boundary and pronoun-token positions and selected through a filtering pipeline for different depths. We characterize each surviving feature through its steering effects and activation distribution. Our main finding is that the Assistant and roleplay personas are not independent alternatives: personas retain the Assistant-associated feature core while progressively differentiating from it across layers, starting from operational machinery towards behavioral and stylistic features. Meanwhile, generated story characters lack the Assistant-associated core. Both Story and Roleplay can be distinguished from the Assistant with Immersive Simulation Mode. However, the Assistant can sometimes enter or slowly drift into it even in the default setting.