Percolation Dynamics in Optimization : Variance Cascades and Discrete Scale Invariance

We study the dynamics of Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD), which is known to steer deep neural networks toward invariant sets that correspond to simpler subnetworks. How this steering unfolds over time remains poorly understood. We answer this by modeling the stochastic gradient flow (SGF) as a percolation process, in which architectural symmetries force subnetworks to merge in discrete simultaneous blocks rather than one at a time. These structural transitions register as variance spikes in a macroscopic order parameter, echoing physical phase transitions. We further show this trapping mechanism and its associated scaling cascade extend to Adam and AdamW under an explicit heavy-tailed noise model.

Optimal Watermark Localization in Mixed-Source Large Language Model Texts

Watermarking provides a principled way to authenticate text generated by large language models (LLMs). In practice, however, the final text may be mixed-source, with watermark evidence surviving at only a subset of token positions after rewriting, insertion, deletion, or paraphrasing. Although prior work has studied global detection of watermark signals, when such signals can be localized remains unclear. We formulate watermark localization as a token-level multiple-testing problem based on pivotal statistics, with a latent indicator recording whether watermark dependence survives at each position. Under an asymptotic regime indexed by exponents for signal sparsity, next-token concentration, and effective-vocabulary growth, we derive a sharp boundary for global detection and phase transitions for discovery and classification within the class of coordinatewise pivot-based localization rules. We show that discovery is strictly harder than detection and that consistent classification is impossible across the parameter regime within this class. We then develop an adaptive thresholding method that does not require knowledge of the exponents or time-varying next-token distributions, but uses a data-driven estimate of the surviving watermark fraction. The method attains the optimal discovery boundary and near-optimal discovery power relative to homogeneous pivot-based rules. Simulations support the theoretical phase transitions, while experiments on model-generated texts demonstrate practical localization performance under common edit mechanisms.

From Objectives to What Models Learn: A Landau Theory of Invariant Learning

Invariant learning seeks representations that remain predictive across environments, yet the behavior of its objectives along the regularization path is often opaque. We address this objective-behavior gap by viewing representation learning as multimode magnetization and deriving, from concrete invariant-learning objectives, a Landau-type effective free energy whose low-order coefficients form objective signatures and induce distinct regularization phenotypes. Effective quadratic corrections move the phase boundary and enable finite-strength mode elimination; quartic corrections regulate post-onset amplitude and typically leave residual loading at finite strength; higher-order structure governs non-monotone tails, instability, and collapse at large regularization. In a canonical bilinear model, the theory yields closed-form phase boundaries and steady-state loadings, as well as distinct critical strengths for shortcut and stable modes that define a selective-retention window. Controlled experiments confirm the predicted phase boundaries, loadings, and regularization phenotypes. In one- and two-hidden-layer ReLU networks, the same signatures remain predictive of qualitative regularization-path behavior despite depth-dependent shifts in scale. A matrix extension generalizes the framework to coupled collective modes and yields a spectral phase-boundary criterion. Together, the framework turns low-order objective signatures into predictions of regularization phenotypes and, ultimately, of what models learn as regularization varies.

Cascading Through the Hierarchy: Regularizer-Induced Feature Detection as Phase Transitions in Deep Linear Neural Networks

A scientific theory of deep learning, comprising learning dynamics and statistical properties of learned models, is rapidly gaining attention. One of the corner stones of this development are analytically solvable toy models, allowing for the fully tractable analysis of the learning dynamics. Here we analytically investigate such a toy model using the regularization strength as a tunable external parameter - akin to external fields in statistical physics. In previous studies, (i) an onset of learning transition was predicted analytically and (ii) it was phenomenologically/numerically established that tuning the regularization strength can result in a cascade of phase transitions. The number of those transitions was linked to the geometry of the loss landscape determined by the model complexity. Setting up a rigorous framework underpinning the previous numerical observations, our investigation reveals a precise connection between those cascades of phase transitions, learnable features and the underlying geometry. We provide analytic predictions of these phase transitions as well as tractable order parameters related to learned features. At the level of the minimal model, we connect this macroscopic perspective (that can be condensed into an effective description) to the microscopic perspective in terms of the geometry of the loss landscape characterized by the Hessian spectrum. Thus, the presented model provides a platform to explore and sharpen advances made in the scientific theory of deep learning rooted in statistical physics concepts.

An exact information theory of generalization phase transitions in Bayesian diffusion models

How diffusion models circumvent the curse of dimensionality to learn complex distributions over high dimensional spaces from a finite training set, instead of memorizing it, remains a fundamental mystery. To address this, we introduce analytically tractable Bayesian information restricted diffusion (BIRD) models, in which each pixel observes restricted information about noisy data. A BIRD model time-reverses diffusion by inferring which past training sample produced its current restricted observation using the Bayesian posterior. This model class generalizes existing analytical diffusion models that use spatially local information restriction. We show that spatially local BIRD models closely approximate trained diffusion models \textit{early in training}, across different architectures such as UNets and DiTs. Under minimal assumptions on the data distribution, we identify an information-theoretic phase boundary between memorization and generalization in the joint space of amount of training data, time in the reverse generative process, and amount of information restriction: a BIRD model memorizes when the mutual information between its restricted noisy observations and the training data exceeds the log number of training points, and it generalizes otherwise. Experiments across a range of datasets confirm our theoretically predicted location for the transition. We find that generation proceeds near the edge of memorization: both spatially local BIRD models and early-training diffusion models track the memorization-generalization phase boundary by increasingly restricting information over time. Overall, our results reveal a fundamental role for information restriction in generative AI to circumvent the curse of dimensionality.

Data-Driven Energy-Based Learning via Gibbs Measures on Hierarchical Structures

We introduce a data-driven probabilistic framework for learning systems based on Gibbs measures on hierarchical structures. Unlike standard empirical risk minimization, where a dataset is used to identify a single optimal parameter, our approach transforms the empirical loss function into an interaction potential defining an energy-based model. The resulting Gibbs distribution describes a family of equilibrium learning states generated by the data. We formulate the consistency conditions of the associated finite-volume distributions and derive nonlinear integral fixed-point equations whose solutions characterize the admissible learning states. These equations provide a rigorous connection between empirical loss landscapes and probabilistic inference on trees. For translation-invariant solutions, the problem reduces to the analysis of positive compact operators induced by data-dependent kernels, allowing us to establish existence and uniqueness conditions in the one-dimensional setting. Furthermore, we show that hierarchical learning systems may exhibit phase-transition phenomena: for certain empirical kernels on Cayley trees, multiple Gibbs measures emerge beyond a critical inverse temperature, corresponding to distinct equilibrium prediction regimes. Numerical experiments with non-separable kernels illustrate the appearance of multiple solution branches and demonstrate the coexistence of several data-induced learning states. Our results provide a new perspective on energy-based learning, where data do not merely determine an optimal model through minimization but define an entire probabilistic landscape of possible inference states.

Towards Physical Intuitions for Alignment Dynamics: A Case Study With Randomness Crystallization

The alignment of language models is typically studied through the lens of capability benchmarks, but the dynamics of how models change during post-training remain poorly understood. We argue that the physical sciences, and thermodynamic phase-transition theory in particular, offer a principled and underexplored vocabulary for reasoning about these dynamics. As a case study, we instantiate this position through the lens of material Crystallization, which is a well-studied thermodynamic phase transition. For tasks like random number generation, this breaks into 3 phases: (1) the high entropy liquid phase in the pretrained model, with many distinct sampling distributions promptable from the model; (2) the nucleation phase caused by supervised finetuning, in which behavior collapses onto a single seed distribution present in the pretrained LLM; and (3) a settling phase in which reinforcement learning techniques redistribute probability of the collapsed distribution, but largely keep it concentrated on the same options as the seed distribution. We propose intuitive metrics to verify the transitions between these phases, and validate the idea across a range of random tasks. Crystallization is one instance of a broader class of physical frameworks we believe alignment research should import to answer questions about where alignment-induced structure comes from, why it converges where it does, and what it fundamentally cannot change.

Spectral phase transitions and trainability in neural network learning dynamics

The emergence of low-dimensional structures in the spectra of neural network weight matrices is a common empirical feature of trained models, but the dynamical origin of this phenomenon during learning remains an open problem. We formulate neural network training as the stochastic evolution of an initially random matrix ensemble, driven by stochastic gradient descent (SGD) updates that reshape the spectral bulk while amplifying signal strength. This induces a Baik-Ben Arous-Péché (BBP) transition during training, where isolated eigenvalues detach from the random bulk distribution, providing a dynamical framework for representation formation in high-dimensional learning dynamics. We demonstrate this in a solvable linear teacher-student model, where spectral evolution is analytically tractable and a phase diagram of trainability governed by the step size (or learning rate) and initial weight variance is obtained, and subsequently extend our formalism beyond the linear regime to nonlinear and stochastic settings. Numerical simulations in realistic settings support this picture, showing robust emergence of spectral alignment during training. Our results suggest that spectral analysis may provide a unified perspective of stochastic learning dynamics, linking trainability, optimisation hyperparameters, spectral phase transitions, and representation learning in neural networks.

Scaling limit of the Random Language Model

We develop a quantitative theory of the Random Language Model (RLM), an ensemble of stochastic context-free grammars, in a scaling limit where the number of hidden symbols $N \to \infty$ while the grammar temperature $\tildeε_d \to 0$ at fixed $x = {\tildeε}_d \log N$. In this limit, the model admits a controlled description based on a large-deviation principle over rule-usage patterns. A semi-annealed approximation maps the problem to a class of Random Energy Models with nontrivial combinatorics. We show that the RLM exhibits a condensation transition at a critical value $x_c=1/8$, below which rule usage concentrates and language statistics acquire a nontrivial dependence on corpus length. A second characteristic scale at $x=1/2$ marks the onset of entropy reduction from its maximal value. Across these regimes, we derive explicit scaling laws for the number of distinct rules, entropy, and related observables, identifying distinct scaling, saturation, and critical regimes controlled by the interplay of grammar size, corpus length, and temperature. The theory resolves previous ambiguities regarding the existence of a thermodynamic transition and explains the slow approach to the large-$N$ limit as a consequence of the dependence on $\log N$. It further provides a unified framework in which universal statistical properties of language emerge from typical realizations of generative grammars, with implications for both natural language statistics and the behavior of large language models.

Noise-Driven Escape from Metastable Phases explains Grokking in Deep Neural Networks

Deep neural networks (DNNs) exhibit first order phase transitions under variations of the L2 regularization strength, with each transition marking the onset of a new learnable feature. Below a critical regularization strength, all features are in principle learnable, but coexisting metastable states, separated by energy barriers, can trap the network and impede convergence. A strength of DNNs is their ability to generalize. But many open questions remain, among them the origin of so called grokking: the abrupt, delayed onset of generalization after prolonged apparent overfitting. We show for linear DNNs that grokking is consistent with hysteresis in first-order L2 phase transitions: using L2 regularization to engineer deliberate trapping, we demonstrate that a model in a low-accuracy metastable state escapes only when SGD noise drives it across an energy barrier, with escape times following Arrhenius scaling. We reproduce grokking-like delayed convergence across two orders of magnitude in escape time by deliberately trapping models in metastable phases. Using sparse sub-sampling we also reproduce the canonical grokking curve where test error eventually approaches the final training error. Our work suggests that the number of metastable states equals the number of learnable features -- one per singular value of the data covariance -- the potential for hysteresis grows naturally with task complexity. We provide evidence that the same mechanism likely operates in general nonlinear DNNs. Our results provide routes toward more efficient learning schemes.

The Geometry of Phase Transitions in Generative Dynamics via Projection Caustics

Continuous-state generative samplers, including diffusion and flow-matching models, evolve through continuous reverse-time dynamics, yet their samples often undergo abrupt qualitative changes: trajectories commit to modes, semantic alternatives collapse, and small perturbations in narrow time windows can produce large downstream effects. This paper develops a geometric account of such phase-transition-like behaviour. We view denoising as gradient descent on a free energy landscape and show that sharp transitions arise near projection caustics, where the nearest-point projection onto the data support ceases to be unique. Motivated by this perspective, we introduce the Critical Boundary Detector (CBD), as practical diagnostics for score-direction instability. Across toy models, standard diffusion models, and latent text-to-image diffusion models, CBD localises mode commitment, predicts intervention-sensitive windows, and supports targeted control in geometrically sensitive regions. Our results connect geometry of data and dynamics of diffusion generation.

Phase Transitions in Attention: A Bayesian Theory of Copy Head Emergence

Attention is the key mechanism underlying in-context learning in transformers, and attention patterns have been observed empirically to emerge abruptly during training. We present a Bayesian theory of feature learning in attention; we then focus on how the copy subcircuit in the first layer of an induction head is learned by analyzing a single-layer softmax attention network trained on a copy task. We derive a closed-form posterior over the attention matrix and reduce it to a low-dimensional order parameter space. This reduction reveals a phase transition in the amount of training data, which we verify using both Bayesian sampling and standard training with Adam. We contrast our results with linear attention and find that softmax attention exhibits a \emph{first-order phase transition} while in linear attention an initial \emph{second-order phase transition} is followed by a smooth, continuous evolution toward the structured attention pattern (\emph{crossover}). Our work provides a first-principles theoretical account of the abrupt emergence of the copy subcircuit, reminiscent of the one observed in training large language models.

Sharp Capacity Thresholds in Linear Associative Memory: From Winner-Take-All to Listwise Retrieval

How many key-value associations can a $d\times d$ linear memory store? We show that the answer depends not only on the $d^2$ degrees of freedom in the memory matrix, but also on the retrieval criterion. In an isotropic Gaussian model for the stored pairs, we show that top-1 retrieval, where every signal must beat its largest distractor, requires the logarithmic model-size scale $d^2\asymp n\log n$. We prove that the correlation matrix memory construction, which stores associations by superposing key-target outer products, achieves this scale through a sharp phase transition, and that the same scaling is necessary for any linear memory. Thus the logarithm is the intrinsic extreme-value price of winner-take-all decoding. We next consider listwise retrieval, where the correct target need not be the unique top-scoring item but should remain among the strongest candidates. To formalize this regime, we propose the Tail-Average Margin (TAM), a convex upper-tail criterion that certifies inclusion of the correct target in a controlled candidate list. Under this listwise retrieval criterion, the capacity follows the quadratic scale $d^2\asymp n$. At load $n/d^2\toα$, we develop an exact asymptotic theory for the TAM empirical-risk minimizer through a two-parameter scalar variational principle. The theory has a rich phenomenology: in the ridgeless limit it yields a closed-form critical load separating satisfiable and unsatisfiable phases, and it predicts the limiting laws of true scores, competitor scores, margins, and percentile profiles. Finally, a small-tail extrapolation further leads to the conjectural sharp top-1 threshold $d^2\sim 2n\log n$.

Concurrence of Symmetry Breaking and Nonlocality Phase Transitions in Diffusion Models

Diffusion models undergo a phase transition in a critical time window during generation dynamics, with two complementary diagnoses of criticality. The symmetry breaking picture views the critical window as when trajectories bifurcate into different semantic minima of the energy landscape, whereas the nonlocality picture views the critical window as when local denoising fails. We study whether two notions of such phase transitions are concurrent in modern diffusion transformers. By evaluating the dynamics and outcomes of the generation trajectory, we observe a near-simultaneous occurrence of the non-locality and symmetry breaking critical times. Our work is the first to unify the two notions of phase transitions in practice: it provides a concrete diagnostic for when and why diffusion models rely on conditioning and global denoising, enabling principled evaluation of model efficiency and guiding the design of architectures and sampling schemes that avoid unnecessary computation.

Latent-Hysteresis Graph ODEs: Modeling Coupled Topology-Feature Evolution via Continuous Phase Transitions

Graph neural ordinary differential equations (Graph ODEs) extend graph learning from discrete message-passing layers to continuous-time representation flows. While it supports adaptive long-range propagation, we show that Graph ODEs with strictly positive irreducible mixing operators face an inherent \emph{monostability trap}: in the long-time regime, information leakage is unavoidable and the dynamics converge to a single global consensus attractor. We propose the \textbf{Hysteresis Graph ODE (HGODE)}, which couples feature evolution with a latent topological potential driven by a learned pairwise force. A double-well edge potential and bipolarized gate allow edge states to polarize into connected or insulated phases while preserving differentiability. We provide asymptotic analysis of the collapse mechanism and the proposed hysteretic topology dynamics, and validate HGODE on theory-driven synthetic diagnostics and real-world graph benchmarks.