Bayesian inference via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides effective parameter estimation, but its real-time application in complex physical systems is hindered by heavy computational bottlenecks and extreme sensitivity to statistical noise. We address this by proposing a neural-network-based probabilistic surrogate framework for rapid and robust MCMC inference. Using fusion plasma Thomson scattering diagnostics as a challenging, noise-dominated testbed, our approach employs a dual-head architecture to simultaneously estimate the expected physical emission spectrum and the channel-wise intrinsic measurement noise variance. By optimizing a Gaussian Negative Log-Likelihood (GNLL) objective, the learned aleatoric uncertainty dynamically buffers the sampler against pathological shot noise. Evaluations demonstrate that this surrogate framework achieves > 1500x acceleration over exact physical forward models, while simultaneously reducing inference error (RMSE) by >20% compared to standard homoscedastic neural baselines, offering a highly promising paradigm for real-time physical analysis.
Nuclear fusion has made significant progress in recent years and is expected to become one of the most important pathways to addressing global energy challenges. This paper focuses on observing plasma using visible-light cameras, analyzing its spatio-temporal motion cues, and predicting the two-dimensional spatial distribution of light intensity, aiming to provide a foundational basis for future scientific experiments using deep neural networks. Specifically, we propose Delta-InvFormer, a novel backbone network centered on a differential Transformer. The key insight is that by taking consecutive video frames as input, we can better capture the dynamics of the plasma. Moreover, spatial and temporal differential self-attention effectively mitigates interference from noisy signals, ensuring high-quality feature extraction. These features are then fused into a compact and informative representation, which is fed into a decoder network to predict the distribution. Based on real experimental data collected from the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) large-scale scientific facility, our results demonstrate that the proposed model not only significantly accelerates traditional methods for distribution prediction but also achieves competitive reconstruction accuracy. The source code of this paper will be released on https://github.com/Event-AHU/OpenFusion
Plasma diagnostic models for tokamak fusion devices are almost universally evaluated on clean, complete sensor data. In practice, fusion diagnostics fail regularly: acquisition systems start late, individual sensors die, and signal dropouts cluster precisely when a plasma disruption is approaching. We present the first systematic robustness benchmark for plasma diagnostic ML using the TokaMark dataset of 11,573 MAST shots, evaluating XGBoost, LSTM, Transformer, and the TokaMark CNN baseline across six physically-grounded failure scenarios and three imputation strategies. We introduce the Robustness Score (RS) for standardized cross-architecture comparison. Our central finding is that disruption-proximate sensor failure (corruption injected in the final window timesteps) collapses sequence model performance (LSTM +212% NRMSE) while a statistical feature model remains comparatively stable (XGBoost +37%). Forward-fill imputation eliminates nearly all degradation from random dropout for sequence models (LSTM +57% to ~0%), but offers little help when the end of the window is corrupted. Shot-level alarm evaluation using ground-truth disruption timestamps reveals that LSTM alarm detection collapses to TPR=0.00 under proximate sensor failure, while mean-fill imputation recovers it to TPR=1.00, a reversal of the pattern observed in NRMSE. Plasma current emerges as the single most critical diagnostic across all architectures (+73% to +140% upon removal). Code, data, and trained checkpoints are available at https://github.com/Neerav-Gupta/tokamark-robustness.