The rapid growth of social media has greatly influenced political discourse, highlighting the need to understand individual political ideologies and their temporal dynamics. This task faces challenges such as data scarcity, abundant non-political content, costly and bias-prone manual annotation, and difficulty in modeling future ideological inclinations. To address these issues, we propose TSN4PI, a unified framework for tracking the evolution of political ideologies on social media. It includes two core modules. The PIDN uses large language models with style transfer and unsupervised domain adaptation to enable robust ideology detection and filter irrelevant content from noisy, cross-domain data. The PIPN employs temporal graph neural networks to predict future ideological shifts, enabling comprehensive analysis of ideology presence, intensity, and evolution. We release two large-scale datasets for noncommercial research use to facilitate further work. Extensive case studies on multiple platforms (X and Truth Social) validate the effectiveness of TSN4PI and provide empirical insights into political polarization and the evolution of online ideologies. Our findings offer a nuanced perspective, advancing both methodological development and empirical understanding in this field.
This paper develops temporal-causal unity (TCU), a framework connecting a process-philosophical thesis -- time is the ordered unfolding of causal change -- to an operational model of cognitive and social dynamics. The framework deliberately separates three claims: an interpretive thesis about becoming, a measurable causal-progress coordinate, and a stochastic network model. Causal progress is defined by $τ(t)=\int_0^tλ(s\mid\mathcal H_s)\,{\rm d}s$, where the nonnegative event intensity $λ$ must be specified independently of the outcome. Agents carry an orientation phase and an activation amplitude; weighted interaction, heterogeneous drift, external input, anchoring, and diffusion govern their evolution in $τ$. First- and second-harmonic order parameters separate consensus from bipolar polarization. For the all-to-all noisy Kuramoto special case with Lorentzian drift width $Δ$, synchronization begins at the conditional threshold $K_c = 2(Δ+ D)$, not at a universal constant. Reproducible numerical illustrations illustrate (not empirically demonstrate) this threshold, causal-clock curve collapse, and the consensus-polarization distinction. Six historical episodes are treated as scope probes rather than validation data. The paper derives falsifiable hypotheses and an out-of-sample protocol for comparing causal-progress and chronological-time models. TCU is therefore offered as a disciplined bridge between process ontology and complex-systems modeling, not as a replacement for spacetime physics or as an empirically established identity between time and causation.
Physically based differentiable rendering has proven to be a powerful tool for inverse rendering problems (e.g., 3D reconstruction, reflectance estimation, lighting estimation). However, most existing methods operate solely on radiometric intensity, discarding valuable polarization cues that constrain scene geometry and material properties. While forward simulation of polarized light is well-defined via Mueller-Stokes calculus, extending reverse-mode differentiation to this domain presents significant challenges. The rank-deficient nature of common polarimetric operators, such as linear polarizers and diffuse reflections, violates the invertibility assumptions of standard gradient estimators like path replay backpropagation and results in numerical instability. We address this by proposing a robust, polarization-aware differentiable path tracing method. Our approach estimates unbiased gradients through a combination of path replay and local caching. This formulation enables efficient and stable optimization of material and lighting parameters in complex scenes, broadening the applicability of physically based inverse rendering. Project page: https://vcai.mpi-inf.mpg.de/projects/DPPT/
LLM "agent societies" are studied via demonstrations of emergent consensus or polarization -- with no measurable control parameter, no theory of when each regime appears, and no test of whether an outcome is a genuine social dynamic or a model artifact. We introduce the coupling gain gamma, measured per-agent by counterfactually perturbing a neighbour's stated opinion. (i) gamma is stable and model-distinguishing -- across five frontier models it spans 0.15-0.43 (n=20, 95% CIs <= 0.025), paraphrase-invariant; social-neighbour gamma roughly equals numeric-anchor gamma, so gamma is evidence-coupling, not uniquely social. (ii) Classical dynamics with measured (not assumed) coefficients organise the regime: Friedkin-Johnsen for consensus/pluralism, signed-Laplacian/structural-balance for polarization. (iii) Frontier LLMs do not spontaneously backfire (beta <= 0), so default societies do not self-polarize -- polarization is always induced; the beta>0 branch arises only in the FJ surrogate, never in the agents. (iv) A randomized-initial-condition diagnostic -- the (slope, bias) of final vs. initial opinion -- separates genuine averaging from model-prior artifacts (boundary-censoring ruled out by construction via interior-valued facts); applied to a published "emergent consensus" result (Chuang et al. 2023) it reveals a model-specific conflation: averaging on debatable claims, prior-artifact on settled facts. (v) Coupling is context-dependent: pairwise gamma does not predict multi-neighbour outcomes -- it can order them backwards -- whereas a modality-matched group coupling does (sixteen closed+open models, Pearson r=-0.70, permutation p=0.008). The regime laws take this matched coupling, not the single-neighbour gamma: emergent consensus must be read from coupling in the target interaction. We contribute a measurement protocol and a validity instrument, not new theory.
Memes have become a prominent medium of political communication in the Arab world, reflecting how humor, imagery, and text interact to express ideological and cultural positions. Despite the centrality of memes to online political discourse, there is a lack of systematically curated resources for analyzing their multimodal and ideological dimensions in Arabic. This paper presents ArPoMeme, a large-scale dataset of approximately 7,300 Arabic political memes categorized by ideological orientation, including Leftist, Islamist, Pan-Arabist, and Satirical perspectives. The dataset captures the diversity of Arabic meme ecosystems by grounding classification in the self-identification of public Facebook pages and groups that produce and disseminate these memes. To ensure both scale and accuracy, we designed a semi-automated data collection pipeline combining Playwright-based Facebook scraping with Google Drive synchronization, followed by text extraction using the Qwen2.5-VL-7B vision language model. The extracted text was manually verified and annotated for three polarization dimensions: Us vs. Them framing, Hostility toward out-groups, and Calls to action. Annotation was conducted through a custom Streamlit-based interface supporting distributed labeling, real-time tracking, and version control. The resulting dataset links visual content, textual messages, and ideological orientation, enabling fine-grained analysis of political antagonism, mobilization, and humor. Quantitative analysis of the annotated corpus reveals strong asymmetries in antagonistic framing across ideological groups, with Islamist and satirical memes exhibiting the highest levels of hostility and mobilization cues. The dataset and the annotation tool offers a reproducible and publicly available resource for studying Arabic political discourse, multimodal ideology detection, and polarization dynamics.