Large Language Models Systematically Favor Popular Options: Evidence and Mitigation Across MCQs

Multiple-choice questions (MCQs) are a standard format for evaluating large language models (LLMs), yet the popularity of answer options can confound evaluation. Modern LLMs systematically prefer popular but incorrect options over less popular correct ones, a vulnerability we call \textbf{popularity bias}. This pattern aligns with confidence miscalibration: model confidence remains high even as accuracy collapses for popular options. To systematically isolate this phenomenon, we introduce \textbf{PopMCQ}, a benchmark with six controlled strategies that vary option popularity while keeping the correct answer fixed. In our most adversarial setting, where all distractors are more popular than the correct option, models choose popular but wrong answers 66\% of the time. To mitigate this bias, we propose \textbf{PopDebias}, a lightweight inference-time correction that estimates and removes a popularity prior from model predictions. It requires no fine-tuning, is label-free at test time (using only a small calibration split for parameter fitting), and adds negligible computational cost. Experiments on 22 open-source LLMs (0.5B to 32B parameters) show consistent improvements, with accuracy gains up to 54.1 percentage points under strong popularity pressure. The code and data are available https://github.com/DataScienceUIBK/PopMCQ

The More Popular, The Harder to Forget: Adaptive Popularity for LLM Unlearning

Popular facts are memorised more deeply during pretraining and resist removal longer than rare ones, yet existing LLM unlearning methods apply uniform gradient pressure regardless of training-data frequency. We propose the AdaPop (Adaptive Popularity) method, which combines local token confidence with a per-fact popularity-dependent exponent derived from an external proxy (e.g., Wikidata sitelinks, LLM-as-Judge), and automates the forget-retain balance via a dual-ascent controller that adjusts the retain penalty each epoch. Across three model families and two benchmarks, AdaPop leaks ~5x less forgotten content than competing methods under paraphrased queries and ~1.6x less under adversarial reformulations. We support our analysis with internal metrics: under our method, forget-set hidden states move further from the pre-unlearning model's states than under other methods, while retain-set representations remain close.

Stay or Stray - A Dynamical Systems Viewpoint of Popularity Bias

Popularity bias in recommendation systems arises when a majority user class generates disproportionate interaction data, causing the system to increasingly favour it while degrading recommendation quality for niche users. While extensive empirical evidence of popularity bias exists, the dynamics leading to its emergence are not well understood. In this work, we study the coupled evolution of recommender model updates and user engagement through the lens of dynamical systems. We formulate a stochastic process and analyse its asymptotic behaviour through an ordinary differential equation (ODE) framework grounded in two-time-scale stochastic approximation. We characterise the equilibrium points of this dynamical system, and derive conditions under which popularity bias is provably emergent, as well as conditions under which symmetric retention of all user classes is possible. We conduct experiments on synthetic data and real-world production logs derived from a large-scale commercial music recommendation platform to validate our theoretical results.

The Pitfall of Scaling Up: Uncovering and Mitigating Popularity Bias Amplification in Scaling Transformer-based Recommenders

We identify a critical pitfall in scaling transformer-based sequential recommenders: while increasing model size improves recommendation accuracy, it simultaneously amplifies popularity bias. This bias drives systems to over-recommend popular items at the expense of niche ones, which not only undermines fairness but also degrades the broader ecosystem by reinforcing the Matthew effect and filter bubbles. Consequently, this bias amplification emerges as a fundamental obstacle to sustainable model scaling. Through comprehensive theoretical and empirical analyses, we uncover the root cause of this amplification. Our findings reveal that as model depth increases, the two core components of the transformer architecture, i.e., attention aggregation and feed-forward projections, synergistically induce severe spectral collapse in model predictions, which directly translates to the amplification of popularity bias. To address this challenge, we propose SPRINT (Scalable Popularity Regularization IN Transformers), which mitigates spectral collapse during scaling by constraining (i) the maximum column-sums of the attention score matrices and (ii) the spectral norms of the feed-forward parameters. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SPRINT significantly improves both accuracy and long-tail fairness. Crucially, it yields more favorable scaling behaviors when expanding model sizes from 0.05M to 0.34B parameters. The code is available at https://github.com/Tiny-Snow/GenRec.