Financial markets are inherently non-stationary, making the effectiveness of individual portfolio-management strategies highly dependent on changing market conditions. This work proposes a retrieval-augmented expert-switching framework that dynamically selects portfolio management experts based on their historical performance under similar market situations. A dual-stream variational autoencoder represents asset-level and market-wide information, while a retrieval-based knowledge base stores historical situations and expert performance. During inference, an instruction-tuned LLM reasons over the retrieved evidence to identify the most appropriate expert rather than directly generating portfolio actions. We further establish a monotonicity property showing that adding a locally superior expert cannot degrade the switching mechanism's performance. Experiments across cryptocurrency, stock, and foreign-exchange markets show that the proposed selector achieves the highest cumulative return and Sharpe ratio among the evaluated selection strategies in all three markets. In the stock market, for example, cumulative return increases from 26% for the best fixed expert to 34%, while the Sharpe ratio improves from 0.74 to 0.96. Ablation results confirm the importance of both retrieval and LLM reasoning, while experiments with different expert-pool sizes demonstrate the value of complementary expertise. Overall, the findings support retrieval-grounded expert switching as an effective approach to adaptive portfolio management in non-stationary financial environments.
Large language models are increasingly used to read markets, assess risk, and allocate capital. However, reported results for LLM trading agents can be inflated by look-ahead leakage, optimistic execution, and risk mandates that are described but not enforced. We present OpenPM, an auditable point-in-time evaluation framework for LLM portfolio-management agents. In OpenPM, an agent manages a \$1M long-only book over the S\&P 500 universe using market data at five-minute intervals. Every record visible to the agent must be available at the decision time. Natural-language risk mandates are converted into typed constraints and enforced on the executed portfolio. Each run produces audit artifacts, including a contamination certificate, a cost-sensitivity curve, and a constraint-adherence report. We also build a reference agent named the tiered allocator, where typed analysts score candidates, a constructor LLM proposes weights, and a deterministic critic guarantees feasibility. We isolate constructor behavior by capturing analyst evidence once and replaying it across constructor models. In our short-window case study, stronger constructors show modest and model-dependent gains over equal weighting on the same pool, but analyst quality matters more than constructor choice, and turnover is the main cost driver. All returns are upper bounds on a single frozen window without market impact, not validated alpha.
Retail investors lack access to the kind of personalized, tax-aware portfolio management that institutional clients take for granted -- existing robo-advisors use static, rule-based allocation, and institutional-grade systems require account minimums and technology stacks unavailable to individual investors. We present a fully built, integration-tested application that closes this gap: a FastAPI backend and web dashboard that let a user describe an investment goal in plain language (e.g. "I want steady growth but need to sell some shares next month for a down payment"), routes that goal to one of six investment mandates, and produces a live, broker-integrated portfolio recommendation from athree-phase reinforcement learning system -- a self-supervised cross-asset encoder, a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) allocation policy with a learned intent router, and a lightweight LoRA adapter that personalizes recommendations from an individual's revealed brokerage behavior without retraining the shared model. The system is functionally complete and integration-tested end-to-end against a live brokerage API (Alpaca, paper-trading mode), including multi-user authentication, a trust first preview-before-apply confirmation flow, daily email digests, and an auditable action-integrity chain, but has not yet been opened to real end-users; we report this honestly as an emerging, pre-deployment application with a concrete path to full deployment, alongside 14-day walk-forward backtests (bootstrapped confidence intervals included) as preliminary, pre-deployment validation rather than production performance. We also report several practical engineering lessons -- silently-inactive integration paths, hanging third-party API calls, and the value of end-to-end empirical verification over trusting checkpoint metadata -- that we believe generalize to other applied RL systems built on external, live data sources.
Firms struggle to choose AI projects that pay off: two projects can look equally promising to smart, motivated stakeholders and yet deserve opposite decisions. At the residential real-estate brokerage Compass, one AI product (Likely-to-Sell recommendations) flagged sales outreach opportunities and went on to account for nine figures in annual gross commission revenue. Another championed AI product (a Time-on-Market pricing tool) was rightly shelved. A simple ROI estimate could not distinguish the two. We present expected ROI (eROI), a framework that decomposes each bet into three components and rates them separately: Value if Successful, Likelihood of Success, and Investment Required. Each maps to a question executives can answer before building: How valuable would it be if it worked? How likely is it to work? And what would it cost to implement? Separating the three breaks a common catch-22: teams cannot estimate ROI until they know whether a project will work, yet cannot know whether it will work without building it. Judging Value if Successful on its own dissolves the loop, letting a team argue that a product would be valuable if it worked while it weighs how likely that is. The framework also asks, before ranking anything, whether there are enough good ideas on the table. After ranking, it guides assembling a portfolio of bets rather than funding only the single top-ranked project. We illustrate eROI on Compass's candidate AI products. Precise ROI estimates are hard to make given the inherent uncertainty of AI projects. Coarse business-level ratings of the three components are enough to tell strong bets from weak ones.
Large language models (LLMs) based agents are beginning to participate in portfolio construction and market analysis, where decisions must be justified under evolving information and risk constraints. Current assessment practice, however, remains poorly aligned with this setting: many studies rely on static examinations or report only terminal portfolio returns, while the intermediate evidence, analyst judgments, and execution steps that produced those returns stay largely invisible. We introduce NextFund, an evaluation platform that makes financial-agent behavior observable under live market conditions. The platform couples time-consistent market access, coordinated multi-agent analysis, and persistent logging of the full decision path from observation to trade. Through an interactive Trading Arena, users can compare models across markets, inspect equity curves, and drill from leaderboard outcomes down to individual justifications. We present NextFund on Hong Kong, U.S., and China A-share equities, illustrating how inspectable decision histories enable fairer benchmarking and more actionable diagnosis. Our demo is available at https://paradoox.cn/nextfund/.
We present a three-phase deep reinforcement learning system for personalized portfolio management that addresses three limitations shared by all prior financial RL work: 1) ticker lock-in, 2) monolithic objectives , and 3) static user models. Phase 1 pretrains a ticker-identity-free cross asset encoder via self-supervised learning on a multi-asset corpus, augmented by a frozen parallel branch using Chronos, a T5-based time series foundation model, fused via a learned gating mechanism. To our knowledge, this is the first application of a time series foundation model to portfolio management RL. The encoder generalizes to any publicly traded asset via a 50-dimensional observable metadata vector that requires no retraining for new tickers. Phase 2 fine-tunes a MoE (Mixture of Experts) portfolio actor critic with PPO under an objective-conditioned reward that simultaneously serves six distinct investment goals sampled per episode: short-term alpha, short-term gain, long-term gain, capital preservation, tax-loss harvesting, and long-term-gains-only. A MoE architecture assigns each objective to a specialized expert head (momentum, growth, defensive, tax-aware), and a learned intent router blends experts based on the active objective and current market regime, which eliminates cross-objective gradient conflict. Phase 3 adds a lightweight personalization layer further adapted at inference time to each individual via a 76-parameter LoRA module fine-tuned on real brokerage transaction history, inferring investment objectives from revealed trading behavior rather than questionnaires. A natural language intent parser converts free-form goals directly into structured investment objective parameters.
Bo Qu, Mingguang Chencs.AI cs.LG q-fin.CP q-fin.PM
LLM agents are increasingly cast as autonomous portfolio managers, and benchmarks have moved from financial question-answering to sequential trading. Yet most still rank agents by returns over a fixed window -- a weak proxy, since a period's return is dominated by the market path and apparent alpha can dissolve once look-ahead leakage is controlled. Such a ranking certifies neither sound reasoning, nor a consistent strategy, nor a durable edge. We introduce CLQT, which reframes closed-loop trading evaluation as diagnosis rather than ranking: an instrument that localizes where and why an agent's process succeeds or fails. CLQT is a fully closed-loop, cost-aware, strategy-consistent, temporally-gated environment whose agents run a five-stage cycle: gather, synthesize, allocate, execute, reflect. Each round emits a complete DecisionRound sealed into a recompute-verifiable hash chain, so every metric is reconstructable from the trail. Six pillars form the substrate: a hard TimeGate, institutional transaction- and financing-cost modeling, strategy-consistency scoring, three-tier memory, a Model-Context-Protocol tool layer, and mandate-aware synthesis. The same agent runs as a constrained committee of specialized roles or a single full-autonomy orchestrator, making process scaffolding an experimental variable. From the audit trail we compute a five-axis capability scorecard (APM-CS: Coherence, Acuity, Composure, Discipline, Reliability), with Coherence judged partly by a held-out, out-of-cohort LLM to curb self-preference bias. We validate it on a contamination-controlled multi-model backtest with an ablation grid and a live broker track on unseen, post-cutoff data, against a repeated-run noise floor. CLQT separates outcome from capability, yielding not a model ranking but a durable, extensible map of agent competencies and limitations.
Agentic artificial intelligence systems introduce a new class of model risk. Unlike traditional predictive models, autonomous agents continuously acquire information, form beliefs regarding latent states of the environment, generate forecasts, select actions, and adapt their behavior over time. Existing validation methodologies focus primarily on predictive accuracy and therefore provide limited insight into the quality of the underlying decision process. This paper proposes a model validation framework for agentic AI based on Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). The framework decomposes autonomous decision making into information, beliefs, forecasts, actions, and utility, allowing each component to be validated independently. Large language models (LLMs) are formalized as approximate Bayesian filtering operators, and a model-risk taxonomy is developed encompassing state-space, filtering, forecast, policy, utility-specification, and parameter risks. The model risk validation methodology is demonstrated through a portfolio-management case study in which an agent infers latent market regimes from market and macroeconomic information, generates belief-conditioned forecasts, and constructs portfolios using a Black--Litterman framework. Empirical validation combines performance analysis, belief calibration diagnostics, coverage tests, ablation studies, and parameter-sensitivity analysis. The results indicate that latent-state inference contributes independently to decision quality and that the principal conclusions remain robust across a broad range of parameter values. The principal contribution of the paper is a practical framework for extending established model risk management concepts to autonomous AI systems and providing a rigorous foundation for their validation, governance, and monitoring.
This paper develops constrained diffusion models with primal-dual inference (PDI) to sample from optimal distributions of entropy-regularized optimization problems with \emph{average} constraints. We formalize constrained sampling in the Lagrangian dual domain, where the optimal distribution takes the form of a Gibbs distribution indexed by the optimal dual variable. Rather than estimating this dual multiplier before sampling and freezing it throughout generation, PDI jointly infers the optimal primal distribution and its parametrizing dual variable. Each reverse diffusion step denoises using the score field associated with the current multiplier and then updates the multiplier through dual ascent using the estimated constraint violation of the denoised samples. To enable this conditional score field, we train a single dual-conditioned score network over the family of Gibbs distributions induced by the dual variables encountered during inference. We prove that the time average of the dual variables generated along the inference trajectory converges to a neighborhood of the dual optimum and bound the effect of residual dual mismatch on the terminal distribution through schedule-dependent stability factors. We evaluate PDI on constrained sampling from a mixture of Gaussians, wireless resource allocation, and portfolio management.
Zeyu Liu, Xuanzhi Feng, Sing Kwong Lai +6cs.LG cs.AI
The financial market is a typical low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) setting, which often destabilizes off-policy maximum-entropy methods like Soft Actor-Critic (SAC). Specifically, noisy state representations may produce unreliable Q-value estimates, and bootstrapping amplifies these errors, forming a failure mode we call the "Financial Entropy Trap". In this paper, we propose FPQC-SAC, an efficient and plug-and-play SAC variant that places a compact and bounded Parameterized Quantum Circuit (PQC) before the actor and critic networks to constrain feature propagation at the representation level, rather than filtering raw inputs or regularizing Q-values after bootstrapping. Notably, FPQC-SAC reduces the impact of extreme market fluctuations on Bellman target estimation, while trainable quantum entanglement preserves flexible cross-asset interactions. Empirical evaluations on real-world portfolio management tasks demonstrate that FPQC-SAC substantially enhances out-of-sample stability and cumulative returns by achieving a 66.89% relative gain in cumulative return over standard unconstrained SAC and outperforms the best continuous-control deep reinforcement learning baseline by approximately 27%. Open-source code is available at https://github.com/ZeyuLIU-UST/FPQC-SAC-main.