Eliciting ESG Preferences for Reinforcement Learning-Based Portfolio Optimization

Modern portfolio management increasingly demands a balance between traditional risk-adjusted returns and strict Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) mandates. Current Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches typically optimize for a single ESG provider, neglecting the significant divergence in rating methodologies across the industry and the unintuitive nature of manually weighting conflicting objectives. This paper addresses these limitations by formulating ESG-aware portfolio optimization as a Multi-Objective Reinforcement Learning (MORL) problem that simultaneously incorporates ratings from three distinct ESG agencies. To bridge the gap between high-dimensional algorithmic trade-offs and human decision-making, we integrate a Preference Elicitation framework using Gaussian Processes. This system enables practitioners to infer their latent utility functions through intuitive pairwise comparisons of candidate portfolios based on their Sharpe ratios and aggregate ESG scores. We systematically evaluate our framework by employing Large Language Model (LLM) personas to simulate Portfolio Managers operating under varied regional contexts. Empirical results using historical market data reveal that regional backgrounds fundamentally shift the derived preference weights. For instance, European-based personas tend to prioritize ESG alignment over financial returns, while Texas-based personas favor risk-adjusted performance. This work offers a highly adaptable framework that successfully aligns multi-objective algorithmic trading with diverse, real-world human sustainability preferences.

End-to-End Neural Shrinkage of Indefinite Pairwise Correlation Matrices for Small-Cap-Inclusive Portfolios

Small-cap-inclusive equity universes contain recently listed and intermittently traded securities, so enforcing a common look-back discards a substantial fraction of the available information. Pairwise-complete estimation preserves the longest overlap for each asset pair, but the resulting correlation matrix can be indefinite because its entries are computed on different samples. This prevents direct use in Markowitz optimization and falls outside the assumptions of standard random-matrix shrinkage. We adapt a rotation-invariant neural covariance estimator to this setting. The model computes mask-aware marginal moments and a pairwise correlation matrix proxy, processes its signed spectrum, and uses a bidirectional gated recurrent unit conditioned on factor-aligned effective sample lengths derived from the overlap matrix and eigenvector loadings. It maps all eigenvalues, including negative ones, to a positive inverse spectrum. The reconstructed covariance is positive definite and is trained end-to-end to minimize five-day realized global-minimum-variance risk. We evaluate 26 expanding-window models from 2000 to 2025 on up to 1,500 U.S. equities in a closing-auction simulator with point-in-time selection, commissions, financing, corporate actions, and market impact. Across the 26-year out-of-sample period, the neural estimator reduces annualized five-day volatility by approximately 20\% and increases the Sharpe ratio by approximately 40\% relative to the next-best covariance estimator. These improvements are consistent across realized risk, risk-adjusted performance, and drawdown control, remain after the modeled execution frictions, and are supported by a 99.9\% Model Confidence Set that retains only the neural estimator.

Titans-QFWP: A Regime-Aware Hybrid Quantum Fast Weight Programmer for Portfolio Optimization

We propose Titans-QFWP, a hybrid reinforcement learning architecture integrating a Quantum Fast Weight Programmer with Titans-style memory (Persistence, Surprise, and Forgetting) for adaptive portfolio optimization. To address high-dimensional market features, we introduce an enhanced A3C^2 framework with Hungarian-aligned K-means clustering and scaled log-return rewards. Evaluated on 468 S&P 500 stocks under an Equal-Parameter-Count (EPC) benchmark with approximately 3,000 trainable parameters, Titans-QFWP achieves strong performance (median ARR 0.4260, Calmar 8.5504, IR 0.8427). Ablation results reveal that quantum gating fundamentally reshapes memory component roles, with Persistence supporting drawdown control, Surprise contributing to return generation, and Forgetting providing additional stabilization. By stabilizing these quantum representations, the model enables defensive allocation during market drawdowns while preserving upside potential.

KellyBoost: Growth-Optimal Portfolio Construction with Gradient-Boosted Trees

KellyBoost is a single multi-output XGBoost model whose softmax output is the portfolio: with y the vector of per-asset holding-period returns, the training loss is - log(1 + w y), the negative log growth rate, so the fitted model is the growth-optimal (Kelly) allocation conditioned on the features. The objective is exact rather than a surrogate: we derive the gradient, the analytic diagonal Hessian and the full Hessian in closed form, verify them by finite differences, and ship a dependency-free reference engine.

Large Language Model-Driven Small-Capitalization Trading: Integrating Financial News Sentiment, Macroeconomic Indicators, and Technical Signals

Large language models can extract richer signals from financial news than fixed sentiment lexicons, and recent work has explored feeding such signals into portfolio construction. We study an uncertainty-aware construction that feeds model-predicted risk -- decomposed into aleatoric and epistemic components -- directly into the covariance matrix of portfolio allocators, rather than treating portfolio risk as fixed or adjusting only expected returns. We evaluate the pipeline on Russell 2000 equities under three stock-selection regimes: a pure-alpha trigger that isolates abnormal stock moves not explained by macro indicators, a pure-beta trigger that captures macro-indicator moves before the stock itself fires, and a beta trigger in which both channels agree. Across the full holding-period grid, the separated pure-alpha and pure-beta legs usually dominate the beta intersection on Sharpe and return. Two horizons are especially informative. At one day, pure beta can work under low and moderate transaction costs because it captures immediate lead-lag spillovers from liquid macro and sector indicators into exposed small-cap stocks, but this advantage disappears at 100 bps when turnover and microstructure noise dominate. At 40 days, pure beta works for a different reason: slower macro repricing overtakes the firm-specific pure-alpha channel. The strongest conservative row is pure beta with GPT-4o mini sentiment, a Student-t target, a 40-day holding period, and risk parity allocation, reaching Sharpe 2.33 at 100 bps. The results suggest that stock-selection regime and allocator choice matter at least as much as the sentiment model, and that separating firm-specific and macro-exposure triggers is more informative than requiring both to fire simultaneously.

Beyond Forecasting: Recasting Volatility Control as a Routing Problem

Volatility control converts risk estimates into portfolio exposure, yet existing approaches often rely on a fixed volatility estimator or a pre-defined control rule that may not adapt to changing market conditions. We propose VolRouter, a modular framework that formulates volatility control as state-conditioned routing over estimator-controller pairs. VolRouter first summarizes market conditions into a control-relevant state profile and then performs routing through three stages: state inference, switch review, and pair selection. The Router can be implemented using rule-based, learnable, or LLM-based decision modules, while portfolio actions remain generated by predefined control policies. We evaluate VolRouter across S&P 500, Multi-Asset, Bitcoin, and USDT volatility-control settings. VolRouter achieves the highest Sharpe ratio in three of four settings. On S&P 500, it improves Sharpe from 0.952 for RV + Naive Scaling to 1.222 while reducing maximum drawdown from 15.10% to 12.58% and daily CVaR from 1.76% to 1.32%. On Multi-Asset, it improves Sharpe from 1.498 to 1.540 and reduces CVaR from 1.56% to 1.18%. Bitcoin shows similar improvements in risk-adjusted performance, while USDT provides a boundary case where simpler state-aware selectors remain competitive. Ablation and sensitivity analyses show that the improvement comes from relative policy evaluation and selective persistent switching rather than simply expanding the policy library. These results suggest that volatility control can be viewed as a policy-selection problem when risk management requirements vary across market states.

Optimized Certainty Equivalent Risk Minimization Using Samples: Algorithms, Convergence Rates, and Applications

We consider the optimization of the Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE) risk, with applications including portfolio optimization in finance, and uncertainty quantification, classification, and regression in machine learning. Our contributions cover popular special cases of OCE, such as entropic risk, mean-variance risk, and smooth variants of Conditional Value-at-Risk. Our treatment sets out the conditions that facilitate the extension of OCE to unbounded r.v.s.. We provide a useful characterization of OCE that links OCE to utility-based shortfall risk (UBSR). Our characterization enables us to form an OCE estimator from the classic sample-average approximation (SAA) of UBSR. We derive mean-squared error (MSE) bounds for our proposed OCE estimator. For OCE optimization, we first derive an expression for the OCE gradient using the characterization linking OCE to UBSR. This expression serves as the basis for a gradient estimator for the OCE. We derive non-asymptotic bounds on the MSE for the proposed OCE gradient estimator. We incorporate the aforementioned gradient estimator into a stochastic gradient (SG) algorithm to optimize OCE and quantify its convergence rate using non-asymptotic bounds that we derive. Finally, we present three experiments that use our OCE optimization algorithm to solve portfolio optimization and uncertainty quantification problems.

Beyond Co-Movement: Locality by Exposures Enables a Joint Factor-Graph Framework for Portfolio Diversification

Current portfolio construction methods are either agnostic to the effects of idiosyncratic shocks (standard factor models) or to the latent data structure driving systematic returns (recent graph-based approaches). This presents an opportunity to combine the complementary market aspects captured by the factor and graph domains, allowing asset allocations to operate directly on the underlying market structure, rather than on its observed co-movement or its finite-sample artefacts. In this work, we introduce the Mutually-INformed Graph-Locality and Exposures framework (MINGLE), which mutually regularises the factor and graph domains by redefining graph locality through systematic factor exposure profiles, rather than via observed co-movements. This is formalised through a unified Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) framework that jointly learns a latent factor representation and its induced graph topology directly from market returns. The resulting exposure-similarity graph aligns more closely with established economic sectors than conventional correlation-based graphs. Portfolios constructed from this representation are shown to consistently outperform their correlation-based counterparts across a range of volatility regimes and transaction cost levels. For rigour, paired statistical testing confirms that these gains stem from the reconciliation of the graph and factor domains.

Neural Network-Driven Volatility Drag Mitigation under Aggressive Leverage

This paper introduces a compact reformulation of a modular end-to-end neural network for global minimum-variance portfolio optimization that decouples model complexity from both look-back window length and universe size. A five-parameter hyperbolic weighted moving average combined with a saturating exponential replaces the original 2,400-parameter lag-transformation layer, and a bidirectional gated-recurrent-unit eigencleaning module together with a streamlined marginal-volatility network reduce total learnable parameters from 39,586 to just 2,175. In out-of-sample tests against state-of-the-art nonlinear-shrinkage and risk-parity benchmarks, the compact network attains the lowest realized portfolio variance without compromising expected return. Under long-only constraints, the variance reduction supports substantially higher leverage while maintaining comparable drawdown control. Validation in a high-fidelity trading simulator that incorporates realistic margin-call dynamics confirms enhanced over-leverage resilience. These findings demonstrate that end-to-end variance-minimization architectures can achieve substantial parameter efficiency and robust capital-efficiency gains without sacrificing risk-adjusted performance.

Optimizing Regret

Building on the identity that expected regret equals the covariance between costs and decisions, this paper develops the complete derivative theory of the covariance regret functional. We derive the Gâteaux derivative, showing that the universal steepest-descent direction is the contrarian policy $-(c-\bar{c})$, while ascent yields momentum. For linear policies $\hatπ(c) = Ac+b$, the gradient is the cost covariance matrix $Σ_c$, with a zero Hessian implying boundary-optimal solutions such as the minimum-variance portfolio. We extend to constrained optimization, sign-gradient duality between regret minimization and alpha maximization, finite-sample convergence bounds paralleling Thompson Sampling, and gradient-descent algorithms requiring only input observations, with applications to portfolio tilting and LLM-based allocation strategies.

Large-Scale Portfolio Optimization Problem Under Cardinality Constraint With Enhanced Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithms

Decision-making is posing an increasingly formidable challenge to investors because of the growing number of alternatives available in financial markets. A hot area of research over the past few decades has been portfolio optimization that seeks to determine how much an investor should invest in which asset. Introducing real-world conditions to the optimization model turns the problem into an NP-hard one for whose solution exact methods become inefficient; hence, researchers have turned to evolutionary algorithms to approximate solutions. In this paper, strengthening strategies are presented for multi-objective evolutionary algorithms that can provide a faster convergence rate and extensive search ability in the portfolio optimization problem under the cardinality constraint. To implement those features, a unique solution representation, a novel operator, and new repair mechanisms are introduced for solving the aforementioned problem in which lower and upper limits are set on the number of assets in the portfolio. For this purpose, new mating strategies along with the aforesaid package are implemented in well-known multi-objective evolutionary algorithms to solve the problem. The customized algorithms are subsequently tested against traditional ones using well-known market indices as benchmarks. Results indicate that the proposed strategy not only provides better approximations but also converges faster as well at no loss of performance with an increasing number of assets in the market.

Grounding Investor Views: Neural Predicates in the Black-Litterman Model

Portfolio construction under the Black-Litterman model requires investors to specify views on asset returns alongside explicit uncertainty estimates -- a process that remains largely subjective and difficult to scale. We propose a formal approach in which neural predicates serve as a structured, probabilistic mechanism for view generation. In our formulation, structured financial analysis data is processed through a compositional hierarchy of neural predicates whose outputs -- probability distributions over market stances -- are mapped to the pick matrix $\mathbf{P}$, the view return vector $\mathbf{q}$, and the view uncertainty matrix $\boldsymbolΩ$ of the Black-Litterman model. View confidence is derived from predicate output distributions, providing a data-driven alternative to subjective uncertainty elicitation. The resulting approach is interpretable, in the sense that any portfolio weight can be traced back through the predicate's logical chain to the underlying data, and fully differentiable, enabling end-to-end learning.

Learning Predictive Ambiguity Sets for Decision-Focused Distributionally Robust Optimization

Predict-then-optimize systems usually compress uncertainty into a point forecast and then solve a downstream optimization problem as if the forecast were reliable. Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) offers protection against misspecification, but the ambiguity set is often centered at historical samples and uses a fixed radius. We propose \emph{learned predictive ambiguity sets} (LPAS): a deep contextual model outputs a finite nominal scenario distribution, a state-dependent Wasserstein radius, and optionally an anisotropic ground metric. These outputs define a contextual ambiguity set that feeds a DRO decision layer. The radius is trained by a combination of conditional quantile calibration, size regularization, and downstream decision loss, so that robustness is adaptive rather than globally fixed. We derive the finite dual form used by the decision layer, present a staged training algorithm, and evaluate the method on distributionally robust portfolio optimization with 20 S&P 500 constituents from 2018--2026. The proposed method substantially improves over equal-weight, predict-then-optimize, and historical Wasserstein DRO baselines, achieving 26.28% annualized return, Sharpe ratio 1.30, final wealth 1.61, and lower tail loss than a deep fixed-radius DRO baseline while using a smaller average radius. The results show that learned ambiguity radii can recover most of the performance of strong fixed-radius DRO while reducing unnecessary conservatism and improving regime adaptivity.

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Reliability Based Bi-Objective Portfolio Optimization

Portfolio optimization under uncertainty is inherently a multi-objective decision problem involving complex interactions among return, risk, market dynamics, and practical investment constraints. Existing reliability based portfolio optimization approaches primarily rely on static optimization frameworks and often fail to capture sequential decision making, tail risk, and market frictions such as transaction costs. To address these limitations, we propose a deep reinforcement learning framework for multi-objective reliability based portfolio optimization (MORP-DRL). The proposed framework jointly optimizes expected return and downside risk using three complementary risk measures: variance, Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), and Entropic Value-at-Risk (EVaR). To model uncertainty and heavy-tailed market behavior, asset returns are represented using GARCH(1,1), Extreme Value Theory, and a t-copula dependence structure, while realistic scenarios are generated through quasi-Monte Carlo simulation. A Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) based strategy is developed under practical constraints including transaction costs and portfolio bounds, and is benchmarked against NSGA-II. Experiments on ten global equity indices across pre-COVID, COVID, and post-COVID market regimes demonstrate that MORP-DRL achieves competitive risk-return performance, reduced downside risk during periods of market stress, and scalability to high-dimensional portfolio settings.

Decision-focused Sparse Tangent Portfolio Optimization

Sparse tangent portfolio optimization aims to learn an interpretable, low-cardinality portfolio in the tangency direction of the mean-variance frontier. However, the associated cardinality-constrained formulation is NP-hard, and standard predict-then-optimize pipelines often misalign forecasting accuracy with downstream portfolio quality. We propose an end-to-end decision-focused learning framework that reformulates Sharpe ratio maximization as a Disciplined Parametrized Programming (DPP)-compliant convex programming layer and replaces discrete selection with a smooth top-$k$ operator enforcing an exact cardinality $k$. This enables gradient flow through prediction, asset selection, and re-optimization, allowing the predictive model to directly optimize portfolio performance. Across four major equity markets, our method achieves competitive and often superior out-of-sample Sharpe ratios compared with historical and prediction-focused baselines, with particularly strong gains in larger asset universes. Our \href{https://github.com/feuerwerksh/Diffble-card-SR}{code} is publicly available.

The Decision Geometry of Covariance Estimation for the Global Minimum-Variance Portfolio under Heavy Tails

The global minimum-variance portfolio (GMVP) is the canonical decision built from an estimated covariance matrix, yet covariance estimators are universally evaluated by matrix-norm loss, which is not the object the decision depends on. We characterise exactly how covariance-estimation error maps into GMVP suboptimality. We prove an exact regret identity and a non-asymptotic bound showing decision regret depends on the estimation error only through its action on the portfolio weights, scaled by portfolio concentration and the conditioning of the true covariance. From this we derive the decision geometry: GMVP regret is invariant to a (p-1)-dimensional projection of the p^2-dimensional error matrix, with invariance to the covariance-scale direction as an exact special case. We then apply the framework to heavy-tailed returns (tail index kappa in (2,4)), establishing the regret convergence rate implied by the centred operator-norm rate, and confirm the theory on a skew-t/t-copula simulation design with pre-registered analysis. The decision-focused advantage is a sharper constant and a concentration discount rather than a faster rate; we report an honest high-conditioning boundary of the rate prediction. The results complement recent decision-focused learning approaches by supplying the exact estimation geometry and consistency theory they lack.

Generating Input Distributions for Explaining Portfolio Optimization Pipelines

We propose a predict-optimize-explain framework that uses gradient-based sample generation to interpret various portfolio models by identifying macroeconomic conditions that induce specified portfolio outcomes. Unlike traditional feature-importance methods, this approach directly probes decision pipelines (predictive models coupled with portfolio optimization) by constructing economically meaningful what-if questions. We focus on four such questions: under what macroeconomic conditions a predict-then-optimize pipeline closes or reverses its return gap with a predict-and-optimize pipeline; what conditions lead a pipeline to diversify rather than concentrate its allocation; when a pipeline trained on calm markets overtakes one trained through crises; and what conditions would let a pipeline match a benchmark return. These examples illustrate how our framework uncovers key behavioral differences between various decision pipelines. Beyond these cases, the proposed framework is flexible and can support a wide range of probing questions tailored to specific portfolio objectives. Our findings highlight the value of integrating prediction, optimization, and explanation to produce more robust and transparent portfolio strategies.

A Unified Multi-Modal Framework for Intelligent Financial Systems: Integrating Reinforcement Learning, High-Frequency Trading, and Game-Theoretic Approaches with Cross-Modal Sentiment Analysis

The rapid evolution of financial technology demands sophisticated artificial intelligence systems capable of handling diverse challenges across multiple domains simultaneously. This paper presents a groundbreaking unified framework that seamlessly integrates Proximal Policy Optimization for robo-advisory systems, advanced time-series prediction models for high-frequency trading, in-context learning mechanisms for dynamic investment advisory, game-theoretic approaches for competitive banking scenarios, and unified embeddings for cross-modal financial sentiment analysis. Our comprehensive framework addresses the critical gap in existing literature where these technologies have been developed in isolation, failing to leverage their synergistic potential. Through extensive experimentation across multiple financial datasets and real-world scenarios, we demonstrate that our integrated approach achieves superior performance compared to specialized single-domain systems. Specifically, our framework shows a 23.7% improvement in portfolio optimization metrics, reduces prediction error in high-frequency trading by 31.2%, enhances investment recommendation accuracy by 18.9%, optimizes competitive banking strategies with a 27.4% increase in Nash equilibrium convergence speed, and improves sentiment analysis accuracy by 15.6% through cross-modal fusion. The theoretical foundation of our work establishes convergence guarantees for the integrated optimization problem, while our empirical results validate the practical applicability across diverse financial institutions. This research not only advances the state-of-the-art in financial AI but also provides a blueprint for developing comprehensive intelligent systems that can adapt to the complex, interconnected nature of modern financial markets.

Addressing Market Regime Changes and Heavy-Tailed Returns in Portfolio Optimization via Bayesian VAR and Elliptical Black-Litterman

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) frameworks for portfolio optimization have shown promise for their ability to learn allocation rules dynamically from market data. However, these models fail to account for fat-tailed returns, which characterize actual market behavior with more frequent extreme events. Furthermore, historical data is treated homogeneously, without accounting for temporal importance, leading models to fail during regime changes. We propose a new BAVAR-BLED algorithm that combines methods derived from Bayesian-Averaging Vector Autoregressive (BAVAR) and the Black-Litterman model using Elliptical Distributions (BLED) within a TD3 architecture. BAVAR captures a set of vector autoregressive representations that consider multi-scale temporal features, enabling adaptive allocation decisions based on regime-aware estimates of return expectations and dispersion matrices. These estimates serve as prior inputs to BLED, a model that uses Student's t-distributions, allowing for more realistic fat tail return estimates. The BAVAR-BLED algorithm uses transformer networks for view construction and CNNs for risk-aversion estimates, which modify dynamic allocation decisions based on market conditions. An evaluation of 29 Dow Jones Industrial Average constituents over a decade-long market period shows that BAVAR-BLED significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving Sharpe and Sortino ratios of 1.72 and 2.70, respectively, and total returns of 57.26%.

Scaling Decision-Focused Learning to Large Problems with Lagrangian Decomposition

Decision-focused learning has shown great promise for addressing predict-then-optimize problems, particularly in the presence of under-specified models. However, its practical deployment is often hindered by high computational costs and limited scalability, as it requires solving a constrained optimization problem for each training instance at every iteration. To address these challenges, we propose a novel framework that incorporates Lagrangian decomposition into the decision-focused learning paradigm. Specifically, we introduce a new surrogate objective along with two loss functions for evaluating and training the underlying prediction model. We further propose two variants of our approach, which offer different trade-offs between computational efficiency and solution quality. Our framework can be seamlessly integrated with standard decision-focused learning methods, including Smart Predict-then-Optimize (SPO+) and Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE). Through experiments on two standard benchmarks, the multi-dimensional knapsack problem and quadratic portfolio optimization, we demonstrate that our approach achieves competitive performance while remaining amenable to parallelization. In particular, it consistently outperforms traditional decision-focused learning methods on large-scale instances, involving up to eight times more variables than those typically considered in related work. The implementation is available at https://github.com/corail-research/DFL-LD.

From Validator Selection to Portfolio Collection Optimization in Proof-of-Stake Blockchains

We consider a problem arising in proof-of-stake blockchain environments, where agents called nominators select validators - entities responsible for maintaining the blockchain's physical infrastructure. The selection process is inherently subjective and multi-criterial and combines with the fact that nominators commonly operate through multiple accounts. This gives rise to a portfolio selection problem, where agents seek to distribute their nominations across accounts to diversify risk. We propose a decision support framework to optimize this selection by simultaneously maximizing two objectives: the expected utility of the validators likely to be allocated, representing portfolio quality and profitability, and the expected entropy of the allocation, representing diversification and risk mitigation across stashes. Validator utilities are derived using an original active preference learning procedure based on multi-attribute value theory, with emphasis on top-ranked validators. The resulting bi-objective optimization problem is solved with a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm and, to support the final choice, we introduce an interactive binary search navigation procedure that guides the nominator through the front and identifies a satisfactory trade-off with only a few questions. Numerical experiments examine the optimization strategies, while an expert assessment involving five experienced nominators confirms the approach's practical relevance and usefulness.

Benchmarking Quantum Algorithmic Resilience for CVaR Portfolio Optimization: The Expressibility-Coherence Trade-off

Quantum combinatorial optimization offers theoretical advantages for complex financial modeling, but physical implementation on Noisy Intermediate Scale Quantum (NISQ) devices is severely constrained by hardware topology. This study presents a hardware benchmarking analysis between a Hardware Efficient Variational Quantum Neural Network (HE-VQNN) and the Warm Start Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (WS-QAOA) for a hybrid Mean Variance and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) portfolio objective. By implementing a novel classical quantum hybrid proxy matrix to bypass the CVaR auxiliary qubit bottleneck, we map up to 16 assets from the NIFTY 50 index onto an IBM heavy hex processor. We systematically quantify algorithmic resilience to the "SWAP tax" incurred during routing. Empirical results reveal a critical operational trade-off: WS-QAOA provides exact theoretical mapping but suffers catastrophic hardware decoherence due to exponential nonlocal gate overhead. Conversely, HE-VQNN preserves hardware coherence but lacks the mathematical expressibility to capture dense tail risk asset correlations. This study exposes the limitations of dense financial optimization on current architectures forces an nonviable choice between algorithmic inexpressibility and hardware decoherence. This is indicative of a deeper limitation as to what can and cannot be done with NISQ computers lacking in all-to-all connectivity.

A Meta Reinforcement Learning Approach to Goals-Based Wealth Management

Applying concepts related to zero-shot meta-learning and pre-training of foundation models, we develop a meta reinforcement learning approach (denoted MetaRL) that is pre-trained on thousands of goals-based wealth management (GBWM) problems. Each GBWM problem involves a multiple year scenario over which the investor looks to optimally choose an investment portfolio each year and choose to fulfill all, some, or none of the different financial goals that arise each year. These choices seek to maximize the expected total investor utility obtained from the fulfilled financial goals. By eliminating separate training and optimization for each new investor problem, the MetaRL model in inference mode produces near-optimal dynamic investment portfolio and goal-fulfilling strategies for a new GBWM problem within a few hundredths of a second. This delivers expected utilities that are, on average, 97.8% of the optimal expected utilities (determined via Dynamic Programming). These results are remarkably robust to capital market regime changes, even when training uses only one capital market regime. Further, the MetaRL approach can enable solving problems with larger state spaces where Dynamic Programming becomes computationally infeasible.

Sampler-Robust Optimization under Generative Models

Modern stochastic optimization pipelines increasingly rely on learned generative models to represent uncertainty, while downstream decisions are evaluated almost entirely through Monte Carlo scenarios. This shifts the operational object of uncertainty from an explicit probability law to the sampler induced by the learned generator. Reliability therefore depends on two errors: sampler misspecification and finite-simulation error. We propose Sampler-Robust Optimization (SRO), which optimizes decisions against the worst-case sampler induced by perturbing the learned generator. This sampler-first formulation aligns with simulation-based decision pipelines and admits a sharpness-aware interpretation: it favors decisions whose performance is stable under generator perturbations, rather than merely under the nominal sampler. Under a coverage assumption, we show that the empirical worst-case objective provides a high-probability upper certificate for the true population objective, with finite-simulation error partially absorbed by the robustification used to guard against sampler misspecification. The framework accommodates generative models with or without explicit densities and admits efficient minimax procedures. Portfolio-optimization experiments show that SRO produces more stable decisions and improves out-of-sample performance under distribution shift.