Selective Hypergraph Refinement for Frozen Graph Clustering

Existing graph-clustering methods typically improve clustering performance by optimizing model parameters and node representations. Effective means of further improving the clustering results of an already trained and frozen model, however, remain limited. We study post-processing for frozen graph clustering. After checkpoint fixation, the procedure uses no labels and updates neither model parameters, node representations, nor the original graph structure. Instead, it exploits an attribute hypergraph to supplement higher-order relations that ordinary graphs cannot readily express, thereby refining existing cluster assignments. Because global hypergraph refinement can yield both performance gains and erroneous updates, we propose Selective Hypergraph Refinement (SHR). The method generates candidate residual directions from the hypergraph and evaluates their reliability using graph structure, node attributes, and matched-null evidence. It updates only nodes with sufficient support and otherwise retains their original assignments. Further analysis shows that whether a node changes cluster is jointly governed by its native assignment gap and the directional strength of the refinement. In a controlled common-suite evaluation, 13 of 15 backbone-dataset cells had a positive mean macro gain, one produced exact no-action, and one was negative. The cell-equal macro gain was 0.066 pp (95% bootstrap CI, [0.030, 0.107] pp), while only 0.209% of hard assignments changed on average. A broader 15-combination native-interface evaluation yielded a macro gain of 0.137 pp at a mean change ratio of 0.375%. These results indicate that frozen clustering outputs retain a limited but measurable refinement space after training. The effect is heterogeneous across backbone-dataset pairs, and broader coverage also increases exposure to negative transfer.

Adaptive Post-Processing Drives Instance-Level Detection in Stroke Lesion Segmentation

Instance-level lesion detection has been an increasingly larger focal point in medical image segmentation besides the more standard voxel-level overlap. Still, most pipelines are trained and post-processed for voxel overlap alone. In particular, the mismatch is most pronounced for small lesions, where a near-miss prediction---substantial overlap that falls just short of the instance-matching threshold---scores the same as a complete miss. In our ISLES'26 submission, we found that closing this gap mattered far more in post-processing than in architecture design. Our Volume-Conditioned Adaptive Post-Processing (VCAP) scheme adjusts component-size thresholds to each case's predicted lesion burden, improving Lesion-F1 by 0.032 (unbiased cross-fold estimate)---approximately 6 times larger than any architectural change we tested. A resolution-aware attention architecture (Viola2Plus), designed for small-lesion segmentation, shows why the distinction matters: it left small-lesion Dice unchanged but raised small-lesion detection rate by 3.7\%, a real effect voxel-overlap metrics alone would have missed. Under 5-fold cross-validation on the 1,453-case training set, our post-processed two-architecture ensemble achieves Dice 0.651 and Lesion-F1 0.614, versus 0.644 and 0.573 for the unprocessed single-model baseline.

A Modern ConvNet for Solar Filament Detection

Automated solar filament detection using deep learning faces several challenges. Semantic segmentation of solar filaments is a complicated multiscale feature extraction task with long-tail distribution. Furthermore, a large-scale, highly complete, and finely detailed dataset has become mandatory for providing abundant information. To address these challenges, we present a series of machine learning approaches to develop a solar filament detection workflow that performs superbly. First, we manually annotated a small-scale solar filament dataset based on H$α$ spectra called MHAS. Next, we developed the Multiscale ORiented DENdritic (MORDEN) model, a semantic segmentation model focusing on multiscale feature extraction. We also introduced the Dense Conditional Random Field (DenseCRF) and Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) methods for post-processing. Using the proposed workflow, we generated a large-scale, high-quality dataset called AHAS. Experimental results demonstrate that MORDEN outperforms several existing solar filament semantic segmentation models with open access. DenseCRF has been demonstrated to effectively capture fine edge details. We also evaluated the effects of data scaling and the reliability of DBSCAN and found that both approaches yield satisfactory performance. Multiple visualization results substantiate our quantitative findings. Our work provides a foundation for maximizing the potential of deep learning models for solar filament detection.

AIFS-TC: A simple correction competitive with the operational frontier for tropical cyclone intensity forecasting

AI weather models are in the process of revolutionising weather forecasting. While these models have been shown to achieve superior performance to physics-based NWP in forecasting tropical cyclone (TC) tracks, they tend to dramatically underestimate intensity. Here we present AIFS-TC, a simple correction to the AIFS-Single model that is competitive with the operational state-of-the-art for forecasting maximum wind speed and minimum central pressure at lead times of 12 h to seven days. This performance also holds for rapid intensification events. Notably, the entire system was autonomously designed and built by a large language model (Claude Fable 5) in a few hours, directed through a small number of natural-language prompts by a single domain scientist. That the operational frontier can be reached with an open-source AI forecast model (AIFS-Single) and relatively simple, cheap post-processing is significant for TC science, and points to agentic coding as a route to rapid exploration and progress in life-saving early-warning systems in other domains.

Scoring Is Not Enough: Addressing Gaps in Utility-fairness Trade-offs for Ranking

Scoring functions are used to represent the relevance of individual documents. In modern information retrieval or recommendation systems, they are often learned from data and play a pivotal role in ranking sets of documents or items in a way that maximizes utility to a query or user. With the recent interest in algorithmic fairness, the success of scoring has naturally led to methods that learn scores that simultaneously trade off fairness and utility. In this work, we show that in stark contrast with utility-centric objectives, scoring is sub-optimal in achieving all utility-fairness trade-offs. We establish this with a series of counter-examples with a generic fairness formulation. We show that the issue persists whether we have a deterministic scoring function or a randomized one, or whether we measure fairness at the scope of a single query or across multiple queries. On the positive side, we empirically demonstrate that semi-greedy post-processing has the potential to achieve much better trade-offs, often approaching the ideal of exhaustive post-processing in a tractable way.

Rigorous uncertainty quantification of probabilistic AI weather forecasts with conformal prediction

Probabilistic weather forecasting is undergoing rapid transformation with artificial intelligence (AI). In traditional numerical weather prediction, computing power can limit how well ensemble forecasts approximate the unknown statistical distribution of future states. AI models facilitate larger ensembles and are trained with probabilistic considerations, ideally leading to better uncertainty quantification. Forecasts from these state-of-the-art models are often considered well-calibrated. However, here we show that the statistical coverage of such models, the ultimate measure of calibration, can struggle, especially on extreme events. To address this shortcoming, we employ conformal prediction, a class of statistical methods that mathematically guarantees coverage under no distributional assumptions, unlike previous post-processing techniques. We apply online conformal prediction to temperature and precipitation forecasts (including extremes) of three leading global weather models, GenCast, NeuralGCM, and AIFS-ENS, ensuring calibrated uncertainty at no expense to other probabilistic metrics. This post-processing method can be applied to any forecasting model.

Improving the sharpness in neural network-based parametric post-processing of ensemble forecasts

Statistical post-processing has proven to be an effective tool in improving ensemble forecast of different weather variables. Case studies show that post-processing can remedy the typically underdispersive and potentially biased behaviour of the ensemble while optimizing a proper scoring rule expressing the forecast skill. The price of these positive effects is generally a deterioration in sharpness; the width of the central prediction intervals and the uncertainty of the predictions are increasing, especially for shorter lead times. This work aims to reduce the extent of the latter phenomenon for neural network-based parametric post-processing methods by extending the network's loss function with a penalty term. We demonstrate the effect of the proposed technique for 2m temperature ensemble forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts downloaded from the EUPPBench benchmark dataset and verified against synoptic observations. Here, the predictive distribution is Gaussian, and we use the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) as loss function. The case studies confirm a substantial relative decrease ($8.2\%-12.5\%$) in the width of the nominal central prediction interval compared to the width of the predictive distribution computed without the penalty term, while there is no deterioration in the mean CRPS of probabilistic forecasts and in the RMSE of the predictive mean.