Posterior Inference of Hamiltonian Parameters from RIXS Spectroscopy

We present the first application of simulation-based inference to resonant inelastic X-ray scattering spectroscopy. Using truncated marginal neural ratio estimation to efficiently restrict the prior and conditional flow matching as the joint density estimator, we infer full posteriors with a modest simulation budget for two Ni$^{2+}$ compounds---NiPS$_3$ as a representative covalent case and K$_2$NiF$_4$ as a more atomic one. We demonstrate that a vision transformer encoder whose tokenization matches the physical layout of the RIXS map yields better-covered and sharper posteriors than generic image encoders. Applying the validated method to experimental NiPS$_3$ and K$_2$NiF$_4$ data, we recover a joint posterior that reveals parameter correlations invisible to point estimators, and a posterior predictive distribution that closely matches the observed spectrum. The amortized posterior unlocks a class of analyses not previously available to the field such as nuisance-marginalized uncertainty quantification, multi-measurement posterior fusion and active experimental design.

LOCUS-DT: Localization via Observation-Conditioned Uncertainty Scoring with Digital Twins

Accurate indoor localization is essential for emerging applications in robotic navigation and search and rescue. While classical methods typically focus on single-point estimates, complex indoor environments with heavy blockage and multipath propagation often lead to multimodal likelihood surfaces where a single estimate is insufficient. This paper proposes LOCUS-DT (Localization via Observation-Conditioned Uncertainty Scoring with Digital Twins), a framework that treats snapshot localization as posterior inference over the transmitter location. By leveraging a ray-tracing-based digital twin (DT) of the known environment, LOCUS-DT generates synthetic multipath profiles for candidate locations and compares them against the measured channel profile. Central to our approach is a novel learned scoring function designed to compare a fixed number of dominant specular paths, providing robustness against errors in both the DT environment model and the physical channel estimation. Importantly, LOCUS-DT is trained over an ensemble of environments to ensure generalization to unseen layouts. We evaluate the system using a Sionna-based ray-tracing backend, demonstrating that LOCUS-DT captures the sharp, multimodal posterior structures inherent in indoor settings more accurately than standard Gaussian or Gaussian-mixture benchmarks.

How Does Bayesian Causal Discovery Fail? Characterising Structural Consequences in Linear Gaussian Networks under Latent Confounding

Bayesian causal discovery is widely used for its ability to quantify epistemic uncertainty over directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) through posterior inference. However, its behaviour under latent confounding remains poorly understood, as existing work typically notes that confounding breaks identifiability without characterising how the posterior distribution over DAGs responds. In this work, we analyse posterior behaviour under latent confounding in linear Gaussian causal models, focusing on additive latent confounding between exactly two observed variables. We derive a critical correlation threshold above which the score function favours graphs with a spurious edge between the confounded variables, and show that this threshold decreases with sample size -- more data lowers the correlation required for the spurious edge to be favoured. Beyond this threshold, we characterize two distinct posterior failure regimes determined by the local structure around the confounded variables. Our findings are supported by exact posterior computations on multiple graph structures, demonstrating both the predicted failure regimes.

Bayesian-Agent: Posterior-Guided Skill Evolution Across LLM Agent Harnesses

LLM agents increasingly rely on prompts, tools, memory, SOPs, skills, and harness feedback, yet current self-evolution pipelines often update these assets through heuristic reflection or raw success counts. Such updates are brittle when trajectories are sparse, expensive, and context-dependent. We introduce Bayesian-Agent, a native and cross-harness framework that treats reusable agent skills as Bayesian evidence objects. Bayesian-Agent records verified trajectories, maintains posterior beliefs over skill reliability and failure modes, and turns those beliefs into auditable skill actions and model-facing guardrails. This posterior view provides a finite-sample alternative to raw empirical-rate skill updates and frames prompt, context, and harness engineering as inference over the external decision environment. On RealFin-Bench, Bayesian skill evolution matches or improves the raw empirical-rate control and yields large gains on native runs. In the incremental mode, incremental repair improves SOP-Bench from 80\% to 95\%, Lifelong AgentBench from 90\% to 100\%, and RealFin-Bench from 45\% to 65\%. Backend and model-scaling ablations further show that posterior-guided repair can operate across BA native, MiniSWEAgent, and Claude Code, provided the harness produces verifiable task artifacts. The source code is available at https://github.com/DataArcTech/Bayesian-Agent.

Bayesian learning for the stochastic shortest path problem

Sequential decision-making problems are often modelled as a Markov decision process (MDP). We focus on the stochastic shortest path (SSP) problem, which is an infinite-horizon undiscounted MDP with absorbing terminal states. We develop a Bayesian framework to learn the optimal decision strategy through interactions with the decision-making task. Specifically, we learn the optimal action-value function $Q^*$, but unlike many existing Bayesian approaches, we do not rely on unrealistic modelling assumptions and ad-hoc approximations. Our approach is to directly construct the posterior beliefs for $Q^*$ through Bellman's optimality equations. For deterministic rewards, we characterise the posterior as a distribution with a manifold density. To facilitate simpler inference, we relax the likelihood so that a Lebesgue density exists. The flip side is to create unidentifiability issues. Specifically, the relaxed posterior can have significant mass on improper decision rules, while the exact posterior will not. We also calculate the exact posterior probabilities for optimal action selections for the tabular parametrisation of $Q^*$, a Gaussian likelihood relaxation and a Gaussian prior, which is useful in benchmarking studies. Numerical studies on variants of the Deep Sea benchmark verify our findings. We demonstrate that our framework faithfully quantifies uncertainty and, compared to other temporal-difference-based Bayesian methodologies, is more data efficient. We conclude with recommendations for future work.