Domain-Adapted Power Curve for Cross-Farm Applications

The wind energy industry relies on accurate power curve models to make power forecast, evaluate turbine performance, quantify upgrade, or support site-planning decisions. In this paper, we focus on site-planning power curves, i.e., we investigate how power curve models trained using turbine data on an operating wind farm can be transferred to a new, undeveloped farm. The traditional wisdom in the wind energy literature relies on distance, layout, or terrain characteristics for making cross-farm power curve transfer. Through the lens of domain adaptation, we propose a more reliable transfer learning approach for cross-farm power curve modeling. In the cross-farm applications, a domain is specified by the temporal environmental variates and spatial terrain variables. Domain adaptation is to find a capable similarity metric to adapt the domain on the new farm to that on the existing farm. Empirical results show that our domain adapted power curve consistently outperforms competing approaches by an appreciable margin for site-planning power predictions.

Spatio-Temporal Gaussian Process for Building Terrain-Incorporating Wind Power Curves

Accurate modeling of wind turbine power curves is crucial for optimal wind farm operation. Nearly all existing power curve models focus on temporal variables such as wind speed and temperature while overlooking the influence of terrain covariates, which governs inflow wind conditions and thus also affects wind power production. This paper proposes a nonparametric spatio-temporal Gaussian process model that integrates temporal environmental covariates with spatial terrain features. The model falls in the category of spatial-temporal Gaussian process models with data on a grid. The challenge to be addressed is that the spatio-temporal modeling require certain temporal alignment among the data, a property that the wind farm data does not have. Our solution strategy is to construct a shared representative temporal covariate set which not only aligns the temporal inputs but also has a size an order of magnitude smaller than the original data size. With this transformation, our resulting model is able to employ a separable kernel structure that captures both spatial and temporal dependencies. Empirical analysis on a real wind farm dataset shows that our method improves predictive accuracy over existing baselines and can be used to quantify the various impact of the terrain characteristics on turbine performance.