Virtual Temperature Sensors in Power Transformers Using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations

Accurate modeling and forecasting of power transformer thermal behavior are critical for reliability, asset lifetime, and optimized power system operation. Numerical approaches such as finite element methods (FEM) and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) offer high fidelity but are computationally expensive, require complex mesh generation, and are often impractical for real-time or large-scale applications, particularly when transformer geometries are unknown. Lumped-parameter thermal models are more practical but depend on transformer-specific thermal constants and may fail to capture dynamic responses under varying operating and environmental conditions. Purely data-driven machine learning methods, including artificial neural networks, convolutional neural networks, and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, have shown success in forecasting transformer temperatures but typically require large volumes of high-quality training data and may produce physically inconsistent or uninterpretable results. This paper develops a physics-aware Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) framework for forecasting transformer thermal behavior from real-world time-series data. Neural ODEs model system dynamics in continuous time, providing smooth trajectory prediction and a natural representation of continuously evolving thermal dynamics. A key contribution is the integration of simplified heat-transfer equations directly into the Neural ODE formulation. The model is evaluated across datasets from fifteen transformers in different regions of Norway with varying designs and cooling mechanisms. The results demonstrate that the developed Neural ODE framework provides a standardized, physics-aware, and robust forecasting approach for heterogeneous transformer units.

Optimized Fuzzy Logic Approach with the IEEE Key Gas Method for Diagnosing Power Transformer Faults Using Dissolved Gas Analysis

Reliable transformer fault diagnosis is essential for maintaining power system stability. The IEEE Key Gas Method (KGM), a widely utilized approach in Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA), exhibits limitations in addressing ambiguous data and ensuring high diagnostic accuracy. This study presents An enhanced model combining Fuzzy Logic with the IEEE Key Gas Method (FL-KGM) that introduces refined membership functions, optimized fuzzy rule sets, and a novel separation of CO and CO2 to eliminate diagnostic inconsistencies. By leveraging multidimensional gas ratio analysis and an adaptive classification framework, FL-KGM delivers superior fault identification and classification. Experimental validation utilizing real-world datasets demonstrates that FL-KGM achieves up to 98.6% accuracy, significantly outperforming KGM and other FL-based approaches. These findings elucidate the potential of FL-KGM in advancing transformer monitoring, enabling intelligent fault detection, and enhancing predictive maintenance strategies in modern power systems.

An adaptive multi-fuzzy logic model for diagnosing transformer faults using dynamic weight optimization

Dissolved gas analysis (DGA) is crucial for diagnosing early power transformer failures. Traditional DGA interpretation methods like Duval Triangle, IEC ratio, Roger ratio, Doernenburg ratio and Key Gas are inconsistent and vary in accuracy, especially for multiple fault conditions. We propose an Adaptive Multi-Fuzzy Logic (AMFL) model integrating multiple DGA methods with fuzzy logic and a dynamic weight adjustment mechanism. Unlike existing approaches with fixed weights, this system iteratively evaluates each method's diagnostic performance, identifies multiple fault types, and adjusts weights based on fault prediction accuracy. A feedback-based optimization recalibrates weights after each cycle to ensure optimal solution convergence. The model, implemented in MATLAB/Simulink, is validated against DGA datasets with known error conditions. Results show the AMFL model significantly improves diagnostic accuracy, especially in complex error scenarios, and enhances adaptability to new datasets. Comparative analysis demonstrates the proposed method outperforms traditional fixed weight multi-fuzzy systems in accuracy, consistency, and reliability of error detection. This work provides a robust, flexible diagnostic tool for transformer condition monitoring and supports more accurate asset management decisions.