Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are generative models that support exact inference and, unlike deep neural networks, admit an exact and tractable measure of loss-surface curvature: the trace of the Hessian of the log-likelihood. Recent work regularizes this trace globally to bias learning toward flatter, better generalizing optima. We show that treating sharpness as a global regularizer can be misspecified for PCs, whose curvature is inherently compositional. We prove that each sum node's contribution to the Hessian trace factorizes exactly into its circuit flow, which measures how heavily the node is used, and a local sharpness term determined by its output distribution. This decomposition provides insights into why global sharpness regularization is depth biased and can lead to underfitting. Building on it, we introduce an adaptive sharpness aware regularizer that penalizes nodes based on intrinsic local curvature and preserves closed form EM updates. We also show that empirically, this targeted regularization recovers the generalization that global regularization sacrifices while retaining the robustness and benefits of sharpness aware learning.
Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are tractable generative models whose internal nodes encode a hierarchy of probabilistic sum- maries over different variable scopes. Existing PC-based out- of-distribution (OOD) detection methods ignore this hierar- chy, reducing the entire circuit to the scalar likelihood (or its uncertainty) computed at the root. We introduce Hierar- chical Likelihood Vector (HLV), a representation whose en- tries are the likelihoods associated with selected PC nodes and define the Hierarchical Likelihood Distance (HLD), a PC-induced pseudo-metric that compares the probability dis- tributions through the expectations of their HLVs. We show that HLD is an integral probability metric over a function class naturally induced by the PC and develop a principled goodness-of-fit hypothesis test for unsupervised OOD detec- tion. Unlike existing approaches, the trained PC alone serves as the representation of the in-distribution: no held-out in- distribution data are required at deployment. We further show that the quantities required by the hypothesis test can be com- puted exactly, directly from the trained circuit, yielding an ap- proximate analytic decision threshold. Experiments on tabular and MNIST datasets demonstrate that exploiting the hierarchi- cal probabilistic summaries encoded through the PC improve OOD detection over root-likelihood, uncertainty-, typicality- and kernel-based baselines, while naturally localizing distri- bution shifts to the PC nodes responsible for the shift.
Anagha Sabu, Hrithik Suresh, Narayanan C. Krishnancs.LG
Algorithmic recourse seeks to help individuals reverse unfavorable automated decisions by recommending actionable changes that achieve a desired outcome. As an individual usually has several distinct routes to a favorable decision, and different people can act on different ones, a recourse system should offer multiple realistic alternatives rather than one. Existing approaches formulate recourse as an optimization problem that constructs one or a small set of counterfactuals rather than modeling the underlying space of feasible solutions, and in practice each sacrifices diversity, plausibility, or feasibility to secure the others. We propose Tractable Recourse Distributions, a probabilistic framework that represents the space of feasible alternatives for a given factual instance as a probability distribution over favorable outcomes. For commonly used cost functions based on proximity and the number of feature changes, we show that this distribution admits an exact representation as a probabilistic circuit, obtained by exponentially tilting the circuit; each individual's distribution is therefore available in closed form, without retraining the model. Sampling from these distributions naturally produces diverse and plausible recourses, while the tilting parameters provide explicit control over their proximity and sparsity. Experiments on standard algorithmic recourse benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework attains diversity, plausibility, and feasibility simultaneously, while retaining sufficient probability mass over feasible counterfactuals for rejection sampling to be practical. A visual study on MNIST illustrates how the tilt strength trades proximity against validity.