Trustworthy Protein-Ligand Binding Affinity Prediction via Reliability-Aware Multi-Engine Fusion

Accurate protein-ligand binding affinity prediction is central to computational drug discovery, yet modern docking engines frequently disagree without indicating which prediction to trust. Consensus scoring and ensemble methods improve mean accuracy but treat all predictions identically without interpretable confidence measures or uncertainty decomposition, ignoring the chemical context of each protein-ligand pair. To address this limitation, we introduce RELIABLE-BA (RELIABiLity-aware Evidential fusion for Binding Affinity), an evidential framework for multi-engine binding affinity prediction. Our model comprises three steps: (1) modeling each engine as an evidential expert via Normal-Inverse-Gamma distributions, (2) scaling epistemic uncertainty through learned reliability from molecular context while preserving each expert's predictive mean, and (3) fusing experts through closed-form aggregation that captures both individual uncertainty and inter-engine disagreement. Experiments on the PDBBind and BDB2020+ benchmarks demonstrate competitive point prediction with substantially improved uncertainty calibration, and additional validation on the SARS-CoV-2 Mpro dataset and 5HT2A receptor demonstrates applicability to clinically relevant drug targets. Crucially, these uncertainty estimates enable reliable filtering of protein-ligand pairs, reducing prediction error by up to 25% when retaining only high-confidence pairs. To our knowledge, RELIABLE-BA is the first multi-engine binding affinity prediction framework to combine evidential fusion with context-dependent reliability, offering a principled path toward trustworthy AI-guided drug discovery. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/yongchand/RELIABLE-BA.

Harmonic Torsional Diffusion for Protein-Ligand Flexible Docking

Molecular docking requires reasoning jointly about ligand pose and protein flexibility. Most diffusion-based docking models predict torsional updates with generic Euclidean heads that ignore the periodic geometry of angular variables. This mismatch is especially limiting in flexible docking, where ligand conformations and pocket side chains co-adapt to form the bound complex. Here, we introduce Harmony, a harmonic torsional diffusion framework for flexible protein-ligand docking. Harmony parameterizes ligand and side-chain torsional score fields as derivatives of learned harmonic potentials on the circle, whose noise-level dependence is supplied analytically by the heat semigroup of variance-exploding diffusion on the torus. This construction makes periodicity explicit and gives the model a frequency-aware inductive bias over rotameric motion. On the PDBBind benchmark, Harmony improves ligand pose accuracy and pocket all-atom reconstruction over recent flexible docking methods. On PoseBusters, it improves the physical validity of generated complexes. Case studies on EBNA1 and KRAS G12D illustrate the method's behavior on a polar and a shallow binding site, respectively. Together, these results indicate that aligning the score parameterization with the geometry of the diffusion process is a simple and effective lever for improving flexible docking.

Curvature-Informed Potential Energy Surface for Protein-Ligand Binding Affinity Prediction

Accurate prediction of protein-ligand binding affinity is essential for structure-based drug discovery. Recent geometric deep learning methods have achieved promising performance by representing protein-ligand complexes as three-dimensional graphs. However, most existing approaches mainly rely on static interaction geometry from a single bound conformation, while neglecting molecular flexibility and binding-induced conformational changes. To address this limitation, we propose a curvature-informed potential energy surface (CPES) graph neural network for protein-ligand binding affinity prediction, which incorporates physics-informed curvature representations to model conformational flexibility. CPES first derives curvature spectral descriptors from the Hessian of the potential energy surface evaluated at equilibrium configurations, whose eigenvalues define the local principal curvatures of the potential energy surface. It then uses spectral cross-attention to compare the unbound ligand and protein with the bound complex, thereby capturing binding-induced changes in conformational dynamics. In parallel, hierarchical protein-ligand interaction representations are learned from static structural features through geometry-aware message passing, soft clustering, and bidirectional cross-attention. Finally, CPES fuses the curvature-informed dynamic representations with static interaction representations for affinity regression. Extensive evaluations on multiple benchmark datasets demonstrate that CPES achieves improved predictive performance and offers physical interpretability.