Beyond Point Predictions: Uncertainty-Aware Satellite Poverty Mapping for Public Policy

Despite their critical importance for policy and research, high-resolution poverty data remain limited across much of Africa. Machine learning (ML) with earth observation (EO) imagery has recently emerged as a way to supplement these data by predicting (i.e., estimating) poverty where it has not been directly measured. Yet to be used reliably, decision-makers and analysts need assurances that they will not be misled by the errors in these predictions. To meet this need, we develop an uncertainty-aware EO-ML method for poverty mapping based on simultaneous quantile regression and a novel form of conformal prediction. Using a spatiotemporal transformer trained on sequences of Landsat and nighttime-light images, we produce prediction intervals for neighborhood-level International Wealth Index estimates across Africa which are statistically guaranteed to achieve their desired coverage rates. While our method's point-prediction performance matches the state of the art, its prediction intervals are wider than might be expected given its high $R^2$ of $0.75$. However, other models of similar accuracy likely suffer from comparable uncertainty, pointing to an inherent limitation: even with its remarkably high explanatory power, EO-ML cannot naively be relied upon for policy-making, such as when designing poverty-targeting programs. To handle this challenge, we develop a procedure to efficiently allocate aid using both ground-truth surveys and model predictions while provably ensuring the risk of excluding eligible neighborhoods remains below a prespecified level. In simulations, this approach delivers substantially more aid per eligible recipient than other strategies, thereby demonstrating that EO-ML can indeed be a reliable supplement to traditional data sources---as long as methods

Auditing Recorded Predictive Lead Service-Line Classifications Against Physical Verification: A Statewide Study of New York

Under the US Lead and Copper Rule Revisions, a utility may determine a service line's material with a predictive model instead of inspecting it. New York State publishes, per address, which method was used. Almost no address carries both a model classification and a physical verification, so the check is between populations within a utility rather than paired addresses. We screen all 153 New York localities that classified at least 100 addresses this way. Seventy-five (49%), covering 125,990 addresses or 57% of those screened, record one value. Zero variance alone is not misconduct: 68 of the 75 match their own verification or have too little to test. Seven are contradicted by their own crews, six beyond any sampling explanation. Five are boroughs of New York City, which file as one system; one is East Rochester, 550 km away. New York City is the largest case: a predictive model is the recorded basis for 43,215 addresses, and on all of them the recorded material is "Known Other". The city records "Unknown" on 121,779 addresses, 1,880 already excavated, and lead on 120,692. In the model bucket both counts are zero, and the 95% upper bound on the rate is 0.0085%. Across the rest of New York the same method records lead or the hedge "Unknown but could be lead" on 12.21% of 176,888 addresses, a comparison whose weaknesses we report. The model-cleared population is newer, median year built 1984 against 1930, and construction era accounts for about a third of the gap and not the rest: holding era fixed, records-based classification finds lead at 4.3-31.9%, physical verification at 1.5-14.5%, the model in no era. Six era-aware estimators place the expected lead lines among them at 1,150-1,450. Two findings need no comparison: 7,782 of these addresses are in pre-1940 buildings, and the archived 2025 snapshot shows the public-side determination was copied from a customer-side model output.

Second-Order Policy Effects as State Transitions: A Source-Linked Benchmark for Policy Simulation

Policy evaluation often estimates direct benefits and costs while treating the institutional environment as fixed. In practice, a policy changes the system it enters: actors adapt, enforcement capacity shifts, burdens move, and new equilibria form around capture, gaming, compliance theater, irreversibility, and repair costs. We formalize this as second-order policy-effect prediction and present a source-linked benchmark for policy simulation. The benchmark contains 96 named public-policy cases across eight domains and four balanced action classes: implement, modify, pilot, and block. Each case includes source locators and state variables for benefit, capture, gaming, burden shift, instability, uncertainty, irreversibility, distributional risk, and implementation capacity. The runner regenerates method outputs and aggregate results from the case table, and the simulator never reads the expert action target. We report a protocol-based transition-channel audit with recall, precision, F1-style efficiency, and selective top-channel stress diagnostics, so universal channel coverage is not mistaken for field validation. The side-effect simulator achieves mean policy-effect quality of 0.945, compared with 0.838 for the risk-register baseline and 0.879 for the causal-loop baseline. Its advantage is concentrated in side-effect recall and aggregate transition scoring; it does not dominate the best structured baselines on exact policy-action choice. The evidence remains benchmark-based, but supports a bounded claim: transition-state variables make policy simulators more sensitive to downstream institutional effects.

Neetyabhas: A Framework for Uncertainty-Aware Public Policy Optimization in Rational Agent-Based Models

Purpose The WHO's COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g., lockdowns, vaccinations) effectively curb transmission but impose heavy economic strains. Existing research often neglects individual behaviors and falsely assumes perfect infection tracking and flawless policy execution, failing to account for real-world uncertainties and errors. Methods We propose an integrative approach incorporating uncertainties in both epidemic measurement (infections/hospitalizations) and policy implementation. We built a simulation model of 1,000 individuals making real-time choices regarding mask-wearing, vaccination, and shopping. Concurrently, policymakers deploy interventions (lockdowns, mandates) based on health and economic observations. This framework is driven by hierarchical reinforcement learning agents, utilizing deep Q-networks alongside uncertainty-aware policy gradient variants (DDPG and TD3). Results The simulations effectively managed the epidemic's progression. Masking and vaccinations proved highly effective, significantly reducing both the outbreak's peak height and duration. By integrating individual behaviors, policy uncertainties, and multifaceted interventions, our dynamic control approach successfully mitigated the epidemic's impact. Conclusions Our model overcomes previous research limitations by embedding uncertainty and human behavior into public health policy frameworks. The simulation demonstrates that accounting for individual choices and imperfect data is crucial for designing effective interventions during complex pandemics, with masks and vaccines serving as pivotal tools.