Class-Conditioned Gaussian Mixture Modeling for Imbalanced Time Series Quantification

Quantification, estimating class prevalences in bags of unlabeled instances is vital in domains where aggregate statistics are more important than individual instance labels, such as biosignal monitoring, fall detection, and activity recognition. We investigate this issue in the challenging setting of imbalanced time series data and develop CC-GMNet-TS, a class-conditioned Gaussian mixture quantifier that combines a Transformer-based feature extractor with per-class latent mixtures. Unlike previous mixture-based quantifiers, which use a single Gaussian mixture shared by all classes, CC-GMNet-TS assigns each class its own compact mixture in a bounded latent space and scores segment embeddings against these class-specific components to create bag-level representations that emphasize rare but informative patterns. Bags are constructed from labeled pools using the Artificial Prevalence Protocol (APP) and prior shift bag sampling (PShift) to cover a wide range of class prevalence scenarios, and the model is trained end-to-end with a quantification-oriented loss. Experiments on three benchmarks: EMG Data for Gestures, SmartFallMM, and UCI-HAR show that CC-GMNet-TS achieves lower error across the three benchmarks compared to traditional aggregators and recent deep quantifiers, while ablations confirm the contributions of both the Transformer backbone and class-conditioned mixtures during PShift.

Geometry-Aware Bayesian Quantification via Compositional Data Analysis

Accurately estimating the unknown target label distribution is the critical first step for adapting to label shift. This task, widely known as quantification or class prevalence estimation, has recently seen significant advances through continuous KDE-based methods which model the density of multiclass classifier posteriors. Posterior vectors might be regarded as compositional data, since they lie on the probability simplex. However, existing KDE-based quantifiers typically rely on Euclidean Gaussian kernels, which ignore simplex geometry and incorrectly assign probability mass outside its boundaries. We introduce a geometry-aware KDE model for multiclass quantification based on log-ratio representations and Aitchison geometry, together with a shrinkage regularization that improves robustness near the simplex boundary. Combined with a maximum-likelihood interpretation of KDE-based quantification, we derive both point-estimation and Bayesian inference procedures for class prevalences. Experiments on 42 datasets across tabular, text, and image domains show that the proposed method is competitive with state-of-the-art quantifiers, often improving over standard KDE-based baselines, while also yielding strong results among Bayesian quantification methods.