Convolutional long short-term memory networks (ConvLSTMs) are widely used for precipitation forecasting, but most evidence for their performance comes from dense, high-frequency radar sequences. This study tests whether convolutional recurrence improves one-day-ahead rainfall-field prediction on small daily reanalysis grids. Indian Monsoon Data Assimilation and Analysis (IMDAA) fields for June-September 1998-2020 were analysed for Bengaluru, Delhi, Kolkata and Mumbai. Ten naive, statistical, tree-based and neural approaches were compared using atmospheric-only and rainfall-history-plus-atmospheric inputs. Performance was assessed for complete fields, domain-mean rainfall, spatial anomalies and high-rainfall days. ConvLSTM did not consistently outperform simpler alternatives. FC-LSTM produced the numerically lowest domain-mean rainfall error in Bengaluru, Kolkata and Mumbai, whereas persistence performed best in Delhi. ConvLSTM produced the numerically lowest spatial-anomaly error only in Mumbai, where rainfall fields showed greater short-term spatial continuity and rainfall-history inputs improved all three neural architectures. The difference between ConvLSTM and FC-LSTM was nevertheless small. Neural models underestimated rainfall magnitude and predicted too few threshold exceedances on high-rainfall days, while persistence achieved the highest detection performance in every city. Post-hoc analyses showed that the selected models were most sensitive to the latest input day, with broader recent-lag sensitivity in Mumbai. These findings show that gridded inputs alone do not justify ConvLSTM and that architecture choice should follow strong benchmarking across average, spatial and high-rainfall performance.
Federated split learning (FSL) enables collaborative training across bandwidth-constrained IoT devices, but repeated activation and gradient exchange creates a communication bot-tleneck. Prior work optimises either activation compression or synchronisation frequency in isolation. This paper presents an FSL framework for IoT rainfall prediction that jointly regulates activation compression and the synchronisation interval \r{ho} via a latency driven scheduler on a server with per client EMA smoothing. The system is evaluated on hourly ERA5 data from 11 weather stations through a 17 scenario simulation matrix and a four scenario Raspberry Pi deployment over a real wide-area link. The simulation matrix validates scheduler switching across low, high, and mixed latency profiles, while the Pi deployment validates the high latency endpoint selected by the same policy. AUPRC varies only slightly across configurations (0.6381-0.6484 in simulation; within 0.011 on Pi), indicating that aggressive quantisation and sparser aggregation do not materially degrade predictive quality in this setting. On Pi, the selected endpoint (int8 with rho=3) achieves an 87% reduction in activation upload payload and a 54% reduction in synchronisation traffic relative to the float32 baseline, while reducing runtime jitter from +/-688 s to +/-10 s.