On the Slow Convergence to Trivial Solutions of Algorithms for Hard Optimization Problems

Hard combinatorial optimization problems, many of which are NP-hard, present fundamental algorithmic challenges. Average-case analysis on random instances has emerged as a powerful framework for understanding typical algorithmic performance beyond worst-case guarantees. A substantial body of work has established negative results: for sufficiently hard instances (often controlled by the underlying graph connectivity/constraints density), no known polynomial-time algorithm can significantly outperform naive heuristics in the double asymptotic limit where both problem size and constraints density tend to infinity. We revisit this picture by studying the finite-size behavior of some optimization algorithms across easy, intermediate, and hard regimes. Through rigorous analysis of large-graph asymptotics combined with numerical experiments on canonical problems (maximum independent set and maximum $K$-SAT), we demonstrate that while algorithms do eventually converge to theoretically predicted bounds, this convergence can be remarkably slow. In the intermediate regime where instances are already highly constrained, local algorithms achieve solutions substantially better than their predicted performance in the high-constraint-density limit. This gap between finite-regime and asymptotic behavior has important practical implications: sophisticated algorithmic design remains crucial even when asymptotic theory predicts inevitable failure.

The sharp SAT/UNSAT phase transition in random ellipsoid fitting

Let $x_1,\ldots,x_n$ be independent standard Gaussian vectors in $\mathbb{R}^d$. An \emph{ellipsoid fit} is a matrix $S \succeq 0$ such that $x_i^\top S x_i =d$ for every $i$, so that all the points lie on the boundary of the centered ellipsoid $\{ x : x^\top S x = d\}$. Saunderson, Parrilo and Willsky conjectured that, as $n,d \to \infty$, this semidefinite feasibility problem undergoes a sharp transition at $n \sim d^2/4$. We prove this conjecture. If $\lim \sup n/d^2 = α^* <1/4$, then, with probability tending to one, an ellipsoid fit exists; moreover, one can choose $S$ with all eigenvalues in a fixed interval $[λ_- , λ_+] \subset (0,\infty)$ depending only on $α^*$. Conversely, if $\lim \inf n/d^2 > 1/4$, then, with probability tending to one, no ellipsoid fit exists, without any spectral restriction. Our proof builds on the Gaussian-equivalence framework developed by Bandeira and Maillard (2025) and closes the two gaps left open in their work: establishing exact fitting and removing the operator-norm constraint. On the satisfiable side, the new ingredients are a head-tail decomposition of the dual vector, exact correction of the sparse head constraints, and a Gaussian comparison principle for the low-influence tail. On the unsatisfiable side, we split a candidate into a low-rank spectral head and a Schatten-3 diffuse bulk, Gaussianize the bulk conditionally on the head, and apply a projected Gordon escape argument. The threshold is governed by the statistical dimension $d(d+1)/4$ of the positive semidefinite cone.