Subsampling is effective in tackling computational challenges for massive data with rare events. Overly aggressive subsampling may adversely affect estimation efficiency, and optimal subsampling is essential to mitigate the information loss. However, existing optimal subsampling probabilities depend on data scales, and some scaling transformations may result in inefficient subsamples. This problem is more significant when there are inactive features, because their influence on the subsampling probabilities can be arbitrarily magnified by inappropriate scaling transformations. We tackle this challenge and introduce a scale-invariant optimal subsampling function in the context of sparse models, where inactive features are commonly assumed. Instead of focusing on estimating model parameters, we define an optimal subsampling function to minimize the prediction error, using adaptive lasso to outline the estimation procedure and study its theoretical guarantee. We first introduce the adaptive lasso estimator for rare-events data and establish its oracle properties, thereby validating the use of subsampling. Then we derive a scale-invariant optimal subsampling function that minimizes the prediction error of the inverse probability weighted (IPW) adaptive lasso. Finally, we present an estimator based on the maximum sampled conditional likelihood (MSCL) to further improve the estimation efficiency. We conduct numerical experiments using both simulated and real-world data sets to demonstrate the performance of the proposed methods.
Rare events in time series are critical to model but hard to learn due to data scarcity. Current generative models struggle with extreme values. We observe that rare events leave distinct topological fingerprints - transitions in Betti numbers from point-cloud embeddings - that are more stable and discriminative than statistical moments. We introduce PHINN, a flow-matching framework using dynamic Betti curves as conditioning signals and a persistence landscape loss for homology consistency. It scales to multivariate data, includes a natural-language interface to set Betti targets, supports cross-domain meta-learning and few-shot generation, and provides certified adversarial robustness. On financial, epidemiological, and multi-modal benchmarks, PHINN outperforms statistical and diffusion baselines in topological fidelity (beta-RMSE down 41-63%, transition accuracy up 84%) and matches jump-diffusion models in tail coverage while exceeding them in shape fidelity. All results have 95% confidence intervals.
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) preserves variance, not the information needed to detect rare catastrophic events. This paper proves the existence of a {\it Risk Shadow}: PCA can retain over 99.9999 percent of total variance while completely erasing all signal about rare, high-impact failures. When this happens, even the best possible classifier operating on the PCA representation reduces to a constant predictor. The root cause is a fundamental mismatch between variance maximization and tail risk awareness. To break the shadow, we introduce Expectile PCA (ExPCA) and Tail-Preserving PCA (TP-PCA), two methods that reweight the data covariance toward high-impact events. We prove theoretically that ExPCA strictly outperforms PCA in retaining rare-event information, and we validate our claims on synthetic data and a real-world credit card fraud detection benchmark. Our results call for a fundamental rethinking of variance-based dimensionality reduction in high-stakes decisions.
Rishal Aggarwal, David Ryan Koes, Nicholas M. Boffi +1cs.LG physics.bio-ph physics.chem-ph
Path sampling methods generate ensembles of reactive trajectories connecting metastable states, but extracting mechanistic insight from these data remains nontrivial. We introduce Flux Matching, a framework that learns two complementary objects directly from reactive trajectory data: a current velocity $u(z)$, whose streamlines trace the dominant reaction pathways, and a scalar potential $h(z)$, obtained from a weighted Helmholtz-Hodge decomposition of the reactive current, that serves as a data-driven reaction coordinate. Both minimize quadratic functionals over the reactive path ensemble, analogous to the flow matching loss in generative modeling, and require no knowledge of the underlying dynamics or stationary distribution. Unlike committor-based methods, $u$ and $h$ remain well-defined under projection onto non-Markovian collective variables, and their level sets in turn provide adaptive interfaces for improved sampling with enhanced sampling methods. Flux Matching is validated through the generation of current velocity trajectories and rate constant calculations on molecular systems.
Estimating the causal effect of time-varying treatments on survival outcomes in large observational studies is computationally demanding, particularly when outcomes are rare. While g-formula-based methods such as the iterative conditional expectation (ICE) estimator provide a principled framework for longitudinal causal inference, they become computationally expensive, especially when bootstrap-based variance estimation is required. In addition, outcome rarity at each time point induces severe class imbalance, leading to instability and convergence issues in logistic regression and related models. To address these challenges, we propose a principled subsampling and reweighting strategy for longitudinal survival data that can be applied to a range of existing causal effect estimators in this setting, including the ICE estimator. The proposed method substantially reduces computational burden while preserving consistency and improving estimation stability in rare-outcome settings. We evaluate the method through simulations and validate it using a large-scale EHR cohort study on social and behavioral determinants of health (SBDH) and suicide risk, demonstrating its effectiveness for modeling rare outcomes in longitudinal data.
Wilson Wu, Victor Lecomte, Michael Winer +3cs.LG cond-mat.dis-nn stat.ML
By far the most common way to estimate an expected loss in machine learning is to draw samples, compute the loss on each one, and take the empirical average. However, sampling is not necessarily optimal. Given an MLP at initialization, we show how to estimate its expected output over Gaussian inputs without running samples through the network at all. Instead, we produce approximate representations of the distributions of activations at each layer, leveraging tools such as cumulants and Hermite expansions. We show both theoretically and empirically that for sufficiently wide networks, our estimator achieves a target mean squared error using substantially fewer FLOPs than Monte Carlo sampling. We find moreover that our methods perform particularly well at estimating the probabilities of rare events, and additionally demonstrate how they can be used for model training. Together, these findings suggest a path to producing models with a greatly reduced probability of catastrophic tail risks.
Mohammad Jafari Jozani, Jingyu Wangstat.ME cs.LG stat.ML
Fractionally supervised classification (FSC) offers a flexible framework for combining labeled and unlabeled data in model-based classification, but existing formulations assume simple random sampling. In many applications, however, the retained observation is an extreme order statistic from a set rather than a randomly selected unit. This is particularly appealing when the target population is rare, since maxima nomination sampling (NS) can enrich the sample with the most informative observations, as in screening, environmental monitoring, repeated testing, and reliability studies. Under such designs, the likelihood function changes fundamentally, and the usual FSC EM construction is no longer valid. We develop FSC for nominated samples by introducing a latent representation that accounts for both the class membership of the observed maximum and the latent composition of the remaining units in the set. The resulting method yields a proper EM algorithm and a coherent weighted-likelihood FSC procedure for NS data. We present the methodology in general form, illustrate it for a rare-event contamination normal mixtures, and show through simulation that it substantially improves on the misspecified alternative by ignoring the extra rank information of such data. A real-data analysis demonstrates its practical value.