Conformal risk control for model-form uncertainty in parametric non-intrusive reduced-order models

Non-intrusive reduced-order models (NIROMs) have become a standard tool for approximating parametric partial differential equations from computer design of experiments while significantly reducing computational costs. However, assessing the reliability of their predictions remains a major challenge, particularly in extrapolation regimes or under limited training data. In this work, we introduce a framework for quantifying model-form uncertainty in NIROMs by combining a perturbative stochastic representation of reduced bases with distribution-free conformal-type methods. Starting from a deterministic reduced basis constructed from snapshot matrices, we model uncertainty through random perturbations defined on the Stiefel manifold, directed along the discarded modes, yielding stochastic reduced-order approximations whose induced variance reflects the basis-truncation error. A transport approximation gives a closed-form posterior variance that sepa- rates basis-induced from regression-induced uncertainty, without re-training the underlying Gaussian processes. We include this posterior variance within a conformal risk control calibration framework, that provides prediction sets with coordinate miscoverage guarantees. The calibration factor produced by this framework is itself an interpretable, scalar diagnostic of the quality of the uncertainty estimate. The methodology is evaluated on parametric PDE benchmarks and an industrial tire-manufacturing calendering process. Numerical experiments demonstrate reliable, locally informative uncertainty quantification that goes beyond the Gaussian predictive variance.

The balance between compactness and forecast accuracy of data-driven latent-space reduced-order models in controlled wake flows

Model-based active flow control requires predictive models that are accurate, stable, and fast enough for real-time optimisation. In controlled wake flows, this is often achieved through Reduced-Order Models (ROMs) that first compress high-dimensional velocity snapshots into a latent space and then learn a time- stepping predictor for the dynamics in the latent space. Here, we study how the choice of the spatial encoder affects the predictability of the resulting latent coordinates for wake flows under control inputs. Using two actuated 2D wake configurations, a simplified truck wake and the fluidic pinball, we compare Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) against nonlinear Convolutional Autoencoders (CAEs) and two types of variational autoencoders for compression, and evaluate several temporal predictors based on Long Short-Term Memory networks. CAEs achieve higher compression efficiency and sharper short-term reconstructions, but they produce latent dynamics that are more irregular and with broadband spectral content. As a consequence, long-horizon forecasts degrade faster and show a higher probability of catastrophic divergence than POD-based models. POD yields smoother latent trajectories that are easier to learn and extrapolate, leading to more reliable predictions beyond the short- term regime. These results reveal a clear trade-off between compactness and forecast accuracy, and suggest that the stability of the latent dynamics prediction can outweigh maximal compression. This is particularly relevant for control strategies rooted in forecasts of the dynamics, such as model predictive control and reinforcement learning. The findings provide practical guidance for designing actuation-aware, hardware-feasible predictive ROMs for real-time flow control.

A Multi-Agent Framework for Zero-Dimensional Reduced-Order Model Planning

Zero-dimensional reduced-order models (0D ROMs) are central to multi-dimensional design workflows for high-end complex equipment. However, the planning process currently relies on manual expertise, limiting topological exploration and prolonging iterations. Even traditional optimization methods such as Genetic Algorithms (GA) are typically confined to local parameter tuning. Although Large Language Model (LLM) agents have shown promise in exploring large sample spaces, and frameworks such as Chain of Thought (CoT) and Reason and Act (ReAct) improve reasoning reliability, while Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) overcomes domain knowledge barriers, a single agent still falls short for the long-horizon and highly coupled nature of complex 0D ROM planning. This paper proposes the Zero-dimensional reduced-order model CO-Planning framework (Z-COPA), a multi-agent architecture featuring a Symbolic Action Graph Engine (SAGE) and a MILP-Guided Navigation (MGN) optimizer. Its core innovation is a dedicated graph representation method that accurately encodes the 0D flow network topology, converting the empirical planning process into a rigorous graph structure optimization problem. We validate the forward and inverse design capabilities and generalization performance of Z-COPA on two real aircraft engine secondary-air systems, two IEEE power-distribution reconfiguration benchmarks, and two water-distribution network benchmarks. The results show superior task completion quality, obtaining the best performance in both forward and reverse design of air systems. Z-COPA disrupts the traditional 0D model planning paradigm, providing a new technical approach for exploring broader topological space and achieving highly automated, globally optimal air system architectures.

Structure-Preserving Neural Surrogates with Tractable Uncertainty Quantification

Recent advances in scientific machine learning provide a means of near-real-time solution to partial differential equations (PDEs), but lack the theoretical underpinnings of conventional simulators that support contemporary verification and validation. In this work, we construct data-driven reduced-order models that serve as structure-preserving, real-time surrogates. Remarkably, the exterior calculus that imposes physical conservation structure also exposes topological structure that we use to build a Gaussian process (GP) representation of uncertainty in state-flux relationships, ultimately yielding a Dirichlet-to-Neumann map for quantities of interest with closed-form expressions for posterior uncertainty. We specifically propose structure-preserving $H(\mathrm{div})$--$L^2$ subspaces of conventional Raviart--Thomas and $dgP_0$ elements prescribed by a lightweight transformer. Reduced-order dynamics consistent with this subspace are learned by posing a conservation law in which a GP describes the fluxes between volumes. This work hinges on a novel interface between mixed FEM spaces and GP regression; when training is posed as the optimal recovery problem (ORP), the resulting GP regression can be written as an optimization problem with equality constraints that impose a conservation structure, amenable to a fast Schur-complement training strategy. The trained model can then be solved in real time with closed-form estimators for boundary fluxes driven by prescribed Dirichlet data. The paper includes RKHS posterior error bounds for linear functionals to support uncertainty quantification, as well as numerical experiments demonstrating the accuracy of the posterior distribution as a surrogate for error estimation.

Learning Control-Affine Reduced-Order Models via Autoencoders

We present in this paper a framework for the identification of control-affine reduced-order models (ROMs). The proposed method utilizes autoencoders (AEs) to transform the high-dimensional states, and potentially the high-dimensional inputs, into reduced latent ones suitable for control-affine state-space dynamics. This is achieved by simultaneous training of the AE and the state-space model. In addition, we extend the discrete ROM formulation to a sequence-based model, which processes state and input histories to improve prediction accuracy while preserving the control-affine structure. We motivate our framework by applying feedback linearization to the derived models, and we present guidelines for its efficient use. The proposed framework is assessed on two numerical examples and its performance is compared to a baseline model, where the AE identifies a latent space with linear state-space dynamics. The assessment involves evaluating the prediction accuracy of the ROM on test data and its effectiveness in controlling the system to a desired state or trajectory.