Financial volatility is regime dependent, yet incorporating regime information into neural networks can also destabilize training. This paper asks where such information should enter a neural cross-sectional volatility forecasting model. We study five-day realized-volatility forecasts for 1,027 U.S. equities using a rolling walk-forward evaluation framework in which information, model capacity, hyperparameter tuning, and random seeds are matched across architectures. We propose RG-ResMoE, a regime-gated residual mixture-of-experts architecture in which regime information is used only for expert routing rather than for direct forecasting. The base predictor models volatility from stock features, while a gating network uses regime state variables to route residual corrections. RG-ResMoE consistently outperforms a capacity-matched MLP in both forecasting accuracy and training stability in the main U.S. study. Similar gains are observed on an independent Japanese panel. The integration pathway is decisive: appending the same regime variables directly to the forecasting input degrades both predictive performance and training stability, whereas restricting them to the routing gate improves accuracy and Value-at-Risk calibration. Hard routing consistently underperforms soft routing. The results suggest that, in compact neural volatility forecasting models, the primary value of mixture-of-experts models lies less in increasing model capacity than in controlling how nonstationary regime information influences prediction.
Stackelberg differential games (SDGs) provide a powerful framework for hierarchical decision-making in stochastic and continuous-time environments, yet their solution remains computationally challenging due to the complexity of traditional dynamic programming and Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman-Isaacs (HJBI) methods, especially in high-dimensional systems. This paper proposes an entropy-regularized reinforcement learning (ERRL) approach for linear-quadratic SDGs (LQ-SDGs) within a continuous-time diffusion framework governed by Markovian regime switching. The key innovation lies in deriving exploratory weakly-coupled HJBI equations with entropy regularization, which promotes stochastic policies that actively avoid suboptimal equilibria -- a limitation of classical SDG methods. Neural networks are integrated to approximate regime-dependent value functions and solve high-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs) efficiently, while a novel sampling technique enhances computational tractability. Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of the framework compared to conventional approaches, particularly in escaping suboptimal traps through exploratory policies. The study highlights the critical role of entropy regularization and neural network approximations in achieving robust solutions for hierarchical decision-making problems under abrupt environmental shifts.
The standard generalization bounds assume that the training and deployment distributions are the same, or are static, and don't consider regime switching environments where the ratio of calm vs crisis states is different. This paper proposes a framework that generalizes regime-aware models by quantifying the extra risk due to regime composition mismatch, when distribution shifts are Markov-switching. We obtain an exact decomposition, separating regime mismatch from regime sensitivity; we extend the bound to beta-mixing data using the effective sample size corrected for the spectral gap; and we show a minimax lower bound for synthetic data and on 25 years of global equity indices. The proposed penalty is an ex post realized generalization gap, whereas the training-only estimator does not show significant correlation: the feature geometry of crises can be detected, but not the temporal arrival. Thus, the framework is not a forecast machine. Forecasting the composition of the future regime is an open question in the rare cases of regime change.