Modeling Memory-Dependent Reliability of LLMs: A Hidden Markov Model

Reliability assessment of large language models (LLMs) seeks to estimate the probability that a model produces correct responses under a specified operational profile. Conventional benchmark-based evaluation, often summarized by aggregate accuracy, provides a point estimate of performance but does not characterize the uncertainty associated with reliability claims. Currently, statistical inference methods for LLM reliability assessment are emerging. However, a key assumption underlying these models is that test outcomes can be treated as independent repeated trials. This assumption may be inappropriate in sequential settings, where later responses depend on earlier interactions through retained context, error propagation, or an evolving interaction state. We extend a hierarchical Bayesian framework for LLM reliability assessment by relaxing the assumption of independent task outcomes and introducing a Hidden Markov Model to capture sequential dependence in benchmark-constructed interaction sessions. In this formulation, outcomes are generated from a latent interaction state evolving according to a first-order Markov process, capturing changes in interaction context. Through experiments using Anthropic Claude and OpenAI on four datasets, we demonstrate the potential impact of sequential dependence on reliability assessment. The results suggest that ignoring sequential dependence may lead to overconfident reliability estimates.

Reliability-Aware CT-MRI Registration: A Quality Engineering Framework with Stability Analysis and Risk Classification

Multimodal CT-MRI registration is central to image-guided radiotherapy, surgical navigation, and diagnostic workflows, but most pipelines report only aggregate quality metrics without per-case reliability signals. We propose a reliability-aware framework that converts registration quality into Green/Yellow/Red risk categories using data-learned thresholds. CT images were registered to T1-weighted MRI using rigid and affine transformations on 90 paired slices from 18 patients across brain, abdominal, and neck anatomies. Reliability was assessed using Delta NMI, Delta SSIM, Dice overlap, registration stability, and inverse consistency error, combined into a single score R. Thresholds learned from training patients were applied unchanged to held-out test patients. Affine registration outperformed rigid registration on NMI and SSIM, yielding 44% Green classifications versus 33% for rigid. Reliability-filtered registrations improved the average alignment profile compared with unfiltered methods. Per-anatomy analysis showed substantial variation, with stronger reliability for abdominal registrations than brain registrations. Weight sensitivity analysis identified Dice overlap as the dominant reliability component. The proposed framework provides an interpretable quality-control layer for multimodal registration, while risk thresholds reflect statistical rather than clinical validation.