Natural Language Processing (NLP) has grown rapidly over the past decade, driven by digital transformation in the Arab world, social media, and large language models (LLMs). Despite this growth, a comprehensive quantitative meta-analysis of the field remains absent. This study presents a large-scale bibliometric and topic-based analysis of 7,120 Arabic NLP papers published between 1960 and 2026, sourced from six collections. We employ BERTopic for topic modeling, regression analysis to identify citation predictors, social network analysis for co-authorship structures, and geographic mapping. Our findings show a significant publication surge after 2020, driven by transformer models and LLMs. Topic modeling identifies 19 substantive themes, the largest centered on text, speech, translation, and recognition. Citation analysis reveals a positive correlation between paper age and citations (r = 0.245, p < 0.001); regression shows that indexing in OpenAlex or Semantic Scholar and institutional affiliation are associated with higher citation counts. Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Egypt lead in research output. A task-dialect gap matrix identifies critical understudied areas, including summarization for Maghrebi, Iraqi, and Sudanese dialects. The largest topic has the highest H-index (87), followed by sentiment analysis (54). Our quantitative approach complements existing qualitative surveys and offers recommendations to prioritize under-resourced dialects and develop culturally aligned benchmarks for Arabic NLP.
Do research topics in artificial intelligence grow gradually, or do they advance through abrupt, detectable jumps? Analyzing 80,814 accepted main-track papers from five premier AI conferences (ACL, CVPR, ICLR, ICML, NeurIPS) spanning 2017 to 2025, we show major AI topics advance through topical phase transitions: remaining marginal for years, then surging across venues within one to three years. Large language models became the dominant cross-venue topic by 2025, diffusion models rose with comparable abruptness, and language-model methods crossed into computer vision via vision-language models, whereas reinforcement learning compounded smoothly, distinguishing genuine phase transitions from ordinary growth. This structure is our primary contribution: a large-scale, cross-venue characterization of how AI research reorganizes. We then ask whether a transition leaves a detectable footprint before it peaks. We define an early-warning signature, four publication-dynamics criteria frozen on 2017-2021 data, and evaluate it out of sample on 2023-2025 transitions, obtaining a precision of 27% and recall of 63% against a 13.5% base rate. Applied to 2025 data, the signature flags reasoning and test-time compute, agentic AI, multimodal LLMs, retrieval-augmented generation, and world models as topics to monitor over 2026-2028. The source code is also publicly available on GitHub at https://github.com/KurbanIntelligenceLab/ai-phase-transitions.