RATL: Learning from Retrieved Residuals for Robust Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) complements parametric models with retrieved external evidence. The same idea is attractive for continuous-output regression, but directly reusing retrieved target values is often not robust when samples differ in output level, numerical scale, or local dynamics. Moreover, conventional forecasting pipelines generally use residuals for model optimization and error diagnosis, but do not retain individual historical residual examples as memory that can be accessed at inference time.For multivariate time-series forecasting, we propose RATL, a plug-in residual-retrieval and feedback-correction method. RATL freezes a base forecaster to construct retrieval keys and turns its historical forecast residuals into a train-only memory specific to that base model. At inference time, RATL retrieves residual trajectories from similar historical contexts subject to causal availability constraints, then uses a set-aware router operating over forecast blocks and variables to select and combine these trajectories. Experiments show that historical residuals matched to the current context contain reusable forecasting information and that RATL improves frozen base forecasters in most experimental settings. Ablations further show that learned routing strengthens raw residual feedback, while validation-based correction-strength selection limits residual over-injection.On real-world benchmarks, we use iTransformer as the primary frozen base forecaster, compare against multiple strong forecasting baselines, and test transferability across backbones. The results show that RATL can further improve base-forecaster performance in most settings.Overall, RATL shifts the retrieved object from historical target values to base-model-specific historical forecast errors, providing a plug-in, residual-memory-based paradigm for learned feedback correction in continuous-output forecasting.

RiskTraf: Risk-Extrapolated Residual Learning for Multi-Variate Traffic Flow Prediction

Traffic sensors commonly record flow, speed, and occupancy, but standard traffic flow forecasting benchmarks and models rarely exploit all three raw measurements reliably. Although speed and occupancy provide sensor-native traffic-state information beyond flow alone, existing releases often omit these variables, replace them with proxies, or contain logically inconsistent records. Moreover, direct empirical risk minimization over three-variable inputs may exploit regime-dependent shortcuts, as the relationships among flow, speed, and occupancy vary substantially between free-flow and congested states. We introduce \textbf{PEMSB-3V}, a public benchmark suite that preserves raw flow, speed, and occupancy measurements from PeMS detectors for flow prediction. We also propose \textbf{RiskTraf}, a model-agnostic risk-extrapolated residual plug-in. For each trained spatio-temporal backbone, RiskTraf freezes the selected checkpoint and learns a lightweight zero-start residual head from historical speed and occupancy. The residual head constructs ordered traffic-risk environments and optimizes horizon-wise flow corrections with a risk extrapolation objective, thereby mitigating regime-specific shortcut correlations without modifying the backbone. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RiskTraf consistently improves diverse forecasting backbones and outperforms debiasing and distribution-shift adaptation methods. Our code and benchmark are available at https://github.com/Guangyu4/RiskTraf.

A Residual Learning Approach for Unsteady Aerodynamic Load Prediction

This paper investigates the feasibility of using residual learning to improve unsteady aerodynamic load prediction for aeroelastic applications. The machine learning technique selected for the study is the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, which is used for its suitability for sequential data with aerodynamic memory effects. The approach is investigated for the NLR 7301 airfoil benchmark using high-fidelity CFD lift data for prescribed pitch and plunge motions in the transonic flow regime in the presence of shock motion. An analytical unsteady aerodynamic model based on the Wagner function is used as a physics-based baseline, and the neural network is trained to learn the difference between the CFD lift coefficient and the Wagner prediction. The residual model is compared with a direct neural-network model trained to predict the CFD lift coefficient. The comparison includes feature and normalization studies, external benchmark cases, and leave-one-out and leave-family-out generalization tests across a range of sinusoidal and non-sinusoidal motions. The residual model performs best when its inputs align with the Wagner formulation variables, generally giving lower error and more consistent performance across training runs, though the direct model remains more accurate for some high-frequency cases. The residual model also generalizes better in the leave-one-out and leave-family-out tests, with a smaller increase in error than the direct model when entire motion families are withheld from training. Overall, the results indicate that residual learning shows promise as a modular approach for augmenting classical low-order aerodynamic theories, especially when the physics baseline removes a structured part of the aerodynamic response and leaves a lower-variance correction for the neural network to learn.

ORPA: Online Residual Policy Adaptation for Robot Manipulation Control with Human Feedback

Robotic manipulation policies trained via imitation learning, such as Action Chunking with Transformers (ACT), can achieve strong performance under ideal conditions but often remain sensitive to small execution errors and distribution shifts. Correcting these failures typically requires dataset aggregation and full-policy retraining, which is computationally expensive and unsuitable for real-time deployment. In this work, we propose Online Residual Policy Adaptation (ORPA), a framework that enables immediate, feedback-driven correction of robot actions without modifying the underlying policy parameters. ORPA augments a pretrained control policy with a lightweight, feedback-conditioned module that predicts residual adjustments directly in joint space, allowing the system to adapt its behavior at runtime. We evaluate ORPA on a set of precision-sensitive manipulation tasks using the ALOHA platform, demonstrating improvements in success rate and recovery from small perturbations compared to baseline control policies and rule-based inverse kinematics corrections.

SRE-FER: Regional residual evidence learning for mitigating local evidence dilution in fine-grained facial expression recognition

Fine-grained facial expression recognition (FER) hinges on capturing subtle muscular cues that distinguish adjacent emotions. Yet capturing these cues presents a dilemma. Detector-based methods depend on fragile landmark pipelines, whereas we find that directly transferring foundation models such as DINOv3 under conventional global readouts can cause local evidence dilution: early global aggregation washes out sparse muscular signals and leaves persistent confusion between categories such as fear/surprise and sad/neutral. To recover this evidence, we propose SRE-FER, a readout-level regional residual evidence learning framework. Its core module, RERA, adds zero-initialized residual logits that refine class boundaries while preserving the backbone's global prediction. Training-time action unit (AU) guidance steers regional features toward expression-relevant areas using Facial Action Coding System (FACS)-based anatomical priors, without requiring an external facial pipeline at inference. An optional Full setting further routes sample-specific non-redundant tokens. On three benchmarks, SRE-FER attains 92.76% on RAF-DB, 91.32% on FERPlus, and 67.78% on AffectNet-7, demonstrating highly competitive performance compared to existing FER methods.

Deep Learning-Based Statistical Downscaling of Sea Surface Temperature Using a Residual Corrective Neural Network

The large-scale oceanic and atmospheric forecasts provided by global climate models typically lack sufficient resolution to accurately capture the response of the coastal ocean to atmospheric forcing and coastal circulation that drive fine-scale SST variability. Dynamical downscaling is computationally prohibitive, when applied to extensive coastlines, predictive ensembles, or long time periods. Therefore, this work presents a statistical downscaling of sea surface temperature (SST) from the seasonal coupled ocean-atmosphere forecast system (ACCESS-S2) using machine learning techniques. This study proposes a novel deep learning framework that uses a U-Net to generate an initial high-resolution SST estimate, which is subsequently refined using a residual corrective approach. The target SST fields are derived from the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). This two step approach called Residual Corrective Neural Network (RCNN) progressively refines initial U-Net predictions by incorporating dynamically scaled residuals at each step, enabling accurate capture of broad patterns and fine-grained features such as eddies and fronts. We also introduce a custom loss-assisted RCNN variant to improve performance during extreme events, which may be absent from training data due to climate-driven shifts in SST extremes. The framework efficiently downscales SST along the west coast of Australia. A 2011 marine heatwave case study shows that the RCNN improves ACCESS-S2 SST predictions by increasing horizontal resolution from 25 km to 2 km, enabling identification of fine-scale anomalies unresolved in the ACCESS-S2 dataset. This balance between computational efficiency and accuracy supports applications in coastal impact assessment and marine ecosystem studies.

Residual Algebra for Representation-Preserving Learning

Learning from heterogeneous representations is often reduced to feature concatenation, erasing which representation produced each error. We propose residual algebra, in which each representation retains its coordinate system and owns its unresolved residual until an explicit aggregation boundary. Fold instantiates representations as point-in-time conditional-mean fields on 10x10 rank grids, and FPRC-PQ composes them through relax-aggregate-close: each field first fits a correction to its own residual, corrected fields then meet at a fixed mean, and a shared learner closes only the aggregate's fresh residual. We formalize aggregation as a quotient by the zero-sum redistribution kernel, characterizing legal post-aggregation operators as those constant on its cosets. The resulting composition separates representation, local residual estimation, and residual-of-residual estimation, with population variance reduction and first-order coupled-path mean orthogonality. Rumination-B and Rumination-H extend the algebra with quotient-legal finite correction and feedback. On 3.67M Chinese A-share stock-day observations (2023-2026) under a frozen point-in-time protocol, FPRC-PQ raises net-of-cost return from 13.52% to 19.10% and Sharpe from 1.42 to 2.09, outperforming matched-capacity, unified-residual, identity-free two-stage, and pairwise-only controls. The gain is thus attributable to explicit residual ownership and composition rather than additional features or trees.

When Proxy Prediction Becomes Equation Reconstruction: Diagnostics and Residual Learning for Factor-Derived Proxy Supervision

Scientific machine learning often relies on proxy targets computed from known domain factors when direct observations are limited. When those same factors are used as model inputs, however, high predictive accuracy may reflect reconstruction of the proxy-generating equation rather than robustness to degraded factor information. We study this problem in RUSLE-derived soil-loss proxy prediction under controlled degradation of the soil-erodibility factor $K$. We introduce a diagnostic framework that combines degraded-formula references, classical tree-based baselines, matched direct and formula-feature predictors, contextual ablations, tail-error analysis, and degradation robustness scoring. We then propose RASPL, a formula-preserving residual framework that retains the degraded formula estimate as the prediction anchor and learns an adaptively gated contextual correction. RASPL substantially outperforms matched direct prediction and provides stronger degradation and tail robustness than treating the formula estimate as an ordinary input feature. Within RASPL, a compact statistical encoder achieves the highest macro-averaged $R^2$ and lowest computational cost, whereas a convolutional encoder achieves the strongest degradation robustness and lowest Tail95 mean absolute error (MAE). These results establish formula preservation as the central design principle for robust learning from factor-derived proxy targets.

DexCompose: Reusing Dexterous Policies for Multi-Task Manipulation with a Single Hand

Dexterous manipulation policies can solve individual skills, but composing them to perform multiple tasks with a single hand remains challenging. Adding a new task on top of an existing manipulation skill often imposes conflicting demands on overlapping fingers and contact modes, causing destructive interference between preserving an existing manipulation outcome and executing a new one. We propose DexCompose, a role-aware residual composition framework that reuses pretrained dexterous policies for multi-task manipulation through explicit finger-level action ownership. Given two pretrained full-hand policies, DexCompose first collects successful post-task states from the first skill and performs release tests over candidate finger masks to identify which fingers are necessary for maintaining the established skill state. It then trains two asymmetric residual modules: a bounded residual stabilizer for task preservation, and a context-aware residual that adapts the frozen downstream policy only within the action subspace assigned to the new task. We evaluate the framework on 16 composite dexterous manipulation tasks spanning four object-retention skills and four downstream interactions. DexCompose achieves a 77.4% average composite success rate, demonstrating that structural action ownership with dual residuals offers a promising direction for composing dexterous skills beyond conventional policy chaining.

Does Text Actually Help? Uncovering and Resolving Text Collapse in Multimodal Time Series Forecasting

Multimodal time series forecasting, which pairs numerical sequences with domain-relevant textual reports, promises to inject world knowledge into forecasting pipelines. However, we uncover a critical failure mode in existing frameworks that we term text collapse: the text branch converges to a content-independent transformation, contributing negligible discriminative signal regardless of the input description. We argue that text collapse is a consequence of a fundamental asymmetry in time series forecasting: the numerical input is strongly autocorrelated with the output, making the numerical backbone inherently dominant, while the text branch, despite carrying complementary and often critical information, is insufficiently utilized, leading to its systematic underexploitation. To address this, we propose \textbf{REST-TS} (\textbf{R}esidual-\textbf{E}xclusive \textbf{S}upervision for \textbf{T}ext in \textbf{T}ime \textbf{S}eries), which turns the asymmetry into a design principle: the numerical backbone produces its own independent numerical forecast, and the text branch is exclusively supervised to predict the structured components of the residual, the prediction gap that numbers cannot explain. Because no numerical pathway can reduce these losses, the text branch must extract genuine content from the input description. Evaluated across diverse real-world domains and backbone architectures, REST-TS achieves state-of-the-art performance and consistently demonstrates greater text-branch utilization than existing frameworks, providing strong empirical evidence that supervising the text branch on the residual compels it to extract genuine content from the input.

Operator Boosting Produces Pareto-Efficient PDE Surrogates

Neural operators are widely used as surrogate solution maps for partial differential equations (PDEs), but full-size models can be costly to store, deploy, and evaluate in many-query scientific workflows. This work introduces Operator Boosting, a stagewise residual-learning framework for constructing compact neural-operator surrogates directly, rather than training a large model and compressing it afterward. Starting from the empirical mean predictor in normalized output coordinates, the method trains a sequence of tiny same-family neural operators on residual fields and incorporates each correction through validation-selected shrinkage. We instantiate the framework with Fourier neural operators (FNOs), DeepONets, and convolutional neural operators (CNOs), and compare boosted tiny stacks against full-size monolithic baselines across one-, two-, and three-dimensional PDE benchmarks from PDEBench, APEBench, and The Well. Across 30 dataset-architecture pairs, 21 show positive mean accuracy gains and 17 have positive confidence intervals, while all boosted stacks reduce trainable parameter count by approximately 72-95%. Best-model comparisons show empirical Pareto improvements on 7 of 10 completed PDE benchmarks, including two-dimensional Navier-Stokes, shallow-water dynamics, Darcy flow, one-dimensional transport and reaction systems, and three-dimensional compressible Navier-Stokes. These results show that Operator Boosting often improves the empirical accuracy-parameter Pareto frontier of neural PDE surrogates, while also exposing PDE- and architecture-dependent regimes where residual boosting fails to offset compression.

Deep Residual Injection for Full-Spectrum Forensic Signal Perception in Multimodal Large Language Models

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have been increasingly adopted in forensics for their robust semantic understanding. As AI-generated images become realistic, semantic-level inconsistencies alone are often insufficient for reliable detection. This motivates a critical question: whether MLLMs can achieve full-spectrum forensic signal perception, i.e., capturing low-level generator artifacts without sacrificing pre-trained semantic knowledge. We further perform a layer-wise analysis of forensic signal perception in MLLMs, showing that semantic information is primarily formed in the early-to-middle layers, whereas direct fine-tuning for artifact learning disrupts these semantic representations. Based on this insight, we propose Deep Visual Residual MLLM (Deep-VRM) to preserve early semantic processing while injecting artifact-specific visual signals as a residual path into an intermediate layer, where they are fused with semantic token representations and propagated through subsequent trainable layers. This enables later layers to jointly model semantic reasoning and signal-level forensic cues, and surprisingly, the model learns to adaptively leverage different levels of forensic signals depending on the input, achieving robust and generalizable detection performance. Extensive experiments show that our method achieves state-of-the-art across most benchmarks. The code and data are available at https://github.com/KQL11/Deep-VRM.

One Step Closer to Ground Truth: A Multi-Scale Residual-Aware Representation Learning Pipeline for Predicting Time Series Data

Transformer-based models have emerged as leading paradigms in time-series forecasting in recent years, employing self-attention mechanisms to capture long-range dependencies. Despite their success, these single-stage forecasting architectures exhibit persistent systematic residual biases arising from structural discrepancies, unmodeled stochastic components, or inadequate multi-scale temporal representations. This limitation persists when residuals are treated as irreducible noise, precluding adaptive correction of structured error patterns. To address this limitation, we introduce a two-stage, model-agnostic framework that explicitly decouples forecasting and residual learning into distinct stages of representation learning. A base transformer first generates the initial predictions. Subsequently, a dedicated meta-corrector dynamically models structured error patterns across multivariate channels, preserves cross-variable dependencies, and iteratively refines the residual bias of the base transformer. By formalizing this pipeline as a hypothesis space expansion, our framework addresses approximation limitations inherent in single-stage architectures, removes reliance on restrictive assumptions, and enables end-to-end learning of complex error dynamics. Evaluated on eight popular benchmark datasets using established protocols, our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance, with significant improvements in standard metrics (MSE, MAE). The results demonstrate the framework's ability to mitigate systematic biases and enhance robustness to complex temporal dynamics, advancing the practical applicability of transformer-based forecasting models.