Using Evolutionary Strategies (ES) for fine-tuning large language models is attractive because it is memory-efficient, parallel, and compatible with black-box or discrete rewards. Yet its population-size conclusions conflict sharply: fine-tuning with cross-entropy (CE) reward succeeds with $N=1$, while binary-reward training often needs $N \approx 30$. We show this gap is largely about reward design and normalization, not population size. In the capable-model regime we study, z-score advantage normalization can cause $N=2$ to fail. Disabling normalization lets binary-reward ES with $N=2$ improve on GSM8K and TREC across capable models spanning 0.5B-7B, where the normalized variant collapses or degrades. This small-$N$ risk is set by reward granularity: binary accuracy reward induces a zero-advantage probability $q$ that depends in closed form on base accuracy, batch size, and intra-pair correctness correlation; a zero-training probe on Qwen2.5-Instruct/GSM8K matches the formula with mean absolute error 0.020 across 12 configurations and finds the availability threshold $N_{\mathrm{avail}}$ to be small in this capable-model regime. The implication is not that $N=2$ is universally sufficient, but that small-population failure in capable-model binary ES can be an implementation artifact rather than an intrinsic population limit.
Self-improvement can self-regress. In REINFORCE post-training for code, a model can quickly improve on its optimized metric and then collapse within the same training campaign. We study this in a controlled multi-seed testbed using Qwen-2.5-3B and Qwen-2.5-7B, trained on competitive-programming tasks with binary CodeGrader reward across 10 sequential 20-step campaigns. Across campaigns, pass@1 shows a robust rise-then-collapse pattern: it peaks within tens of gradient steps and then falls back, sometimes to near zero. This is not cross-task catastrophic forgetting, but within-task policy over-optimization on a fixed distribution; KL- and EWC-style constraints do not prevent it. We ask where the control loop should sit. We compare three levels: CARE, a between-campaign memory mechanism with a capability posterior, transfer gate, and regression-aware belief revision; ES, a within-campaign early-stop rule that rolls forward the peak checkpoint and sets the next budget to peak_step+3; and GRPO, which changes the RL update using group-relative reward normalization. The answer is regime-dependent. On Qwen-2.5-3B, where naive REINFORCE is fragile, CARE v2 nearly doubles end-of-chain pass@1 from 4.9% to 9.5%, with paired bootstrap 95% CI [+0.4,+8.9] and gains in 4/5 seeds. On Qwen-2.5-7B, CARE reaches parity with naive REINFORCE, 13.8% vs. 11.8%, while ES reaches 22.2% [14.1,28.0]. Out-of-the-box GRPO reaches 20.7% [15.7,25.1], nearly matching REINFORCE+ES. GRPO raises the floor but does not remove the cliff. Its 7B gain mainly comes from better between-campaign carryover, while the within-campaign peak-to-end gap remains about 17 points under both REINFORCE and GRPO. GRPO+ES gives mixed evidence: 2/3 seeds improve, but one final cliff lowers the mean to 17.0% [0.0,28.1]. A Gemma-3-4B pilot shows the same signature, suggesting the phenomenon is not limited to Qwen.