Md. Atik Shams, David Eisenberg, Sumaiya Fatema +12cs.LG
Chronic kidney disease (CKD) progresses silently and severely undermines quality of life, making early detection critical for improving patient outcomes. We present a two-part study that combines large-scale telehealth data with advanced machine learning to both classify self-reported CKD status and identify key drivers of disease. Using selected features from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS 2021: 438,693 samples; BRFSS 2019: 418,268 samples) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS 2021: 29,482 samples; NHIS 2020: 31,568 samples), we addressed missing data with nine state-of-the-art imputation methods and mitigated class imbalance via sampling strategies. Our customized stacked ensemble model achieved balanced accuracy of 72.56-76.12%, with corresponding AUROC scores of 79.59-82.29%. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis, followed by clinical review, highlighted critical predictors, including regular medical check-ups, age, blood pressure, and indicators of mental health stress. These findings deliver a robust and interpretable framework for CKD risk stratification and provide actionable insights into its associated factors.
Max A. Nelson, Eminenur Sen Tasci, Zhixiang Wang +12cs.CV cs.LG
Pancreatic cancer is among the most lethal malignancies; risk stratification of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs) offers a crucial opportunity for early intervention but typically requires invasive tissue biopsy. Dominant vision-based approaches, including radiomics and deep learning, provide promising but initially separate discrimination opportunities. Similarly, multisequence MRI (T1W/T2W) and anatomically decomposed (head, body and tail) analysis of the pancreas provide additional and potentially complementary signals. Effective fusion of this information is crucial in ordinal IPMN dysplasia risk prediction and can be accomplished via a meticulously regularized and calibrated ensemble stacking combiner. We present cUPMI, a class-conditional Gaussian augmentation of a combiner's log-probability meta-features, and test it on various prediction paradigms. In our multi-center analysis, we find cUPMI adds limited value to properly regularized L2-logistic binary classification stacks, but consistently regularizes higher-capacity tree combiners in the binary and radiomics-only setting (RF +0.015 and XGBoost +0.024 binary AUC, positive in all seeds). Its cleanest ordinal benefit appears for XGBoost on an 8-stream radiomics task (3-class no < low < high, +0.022 QWK in all seeds). Separately, fold-locked fusion of radiomics and 2.5D CNN streams yields the strongest overall model, an RF stack reaching QWK 0.595 (95% CI [0.54, 0.64]) and binary AUC 0.839, surpassing radiomics, 2.5D ResNet, and 3D DenseNet-121 baselines.
The convergence of artificial intelligence (AI), digital sensing, and ubiquitous computing has created an unprecedented opportunity to transform myopia prevention from a reactive, population-based model into a proactive, precision-driven one. Despite evidence that half the world's population will be myopic by 2050, conventional approaches---school-based vision screening (Phase 1.0) and evidence-based risk factor management (Phase 2.0)---have proven insufficient. We review the emergence of Myopia Prevention and Control 3.0, defined by AI integration across three interconnected domains forming a closed-loop pipeline: (1) AI-driven risk stratification predicting individual-level risk through machine learning on multimodal data; (2) AI-enabled proactive monitoring via wearables, smartphones, and school screening networks; and (3) AI-powered personalized intervention with closed-loop feedback. We critically evaluate evidence across each stage, discuss challenges in data quality, model validation, ethics, and equity, and outline future directions including multimodal foundation models, digital twins, and causal machine learning.
Siyuan Zhao, Eric Ababio Anyimadu, Zachary G. Brumm +5cs.LG
Dysphagia is a debilitating late effect of head and neck cancer (HNC) treatment, yet timely identification of at-risk patients remains challenging in survivorship care. Definitive assessment relies on videofluoroscopic imaging, as captured by the Dynamic Imaging Grade of Swallowing Toxicity (CTCAE-DIGEST), which, while validated, requires specialized equipment, trained personnel, and significant patient burden, limiting its routine use in surveillance. Patient-reported outcomes (PROs), by contrast, are low-cost, scalable, and easily collected at any clinical encounter, making them an attractive alternative signal for identifying patients who may warrant further evaluation. However, a clear clinical framework for translating PRO responses into actionable interventions is still evolving. In particular, uncertainty remains regarding when a patient's self-reported symptom burden should prompt escalation of care. This study addresses this gap by formulating a single-visit PRO-clinical prediction framework and introducing a clinically interpretable two-stage stacking model to predict swallowing impairment risk using PRO responses and structured clinical variables, without requiring videofluoroscopic imaging. The proposed framework quantifies the independent contributions of patient-reported symptoms and clinical factors within a unified and interpretable risk assessment model. Our findings demonstrate that individual MDADI responses contain predictive information beyond that captured by composite or global summary scores, while interpretability analyses reveal symptom patterns and clinical risk factors associated with swallowing impairment. Together, these results support the use of structured PRO-clinical integration as a practical, imaging-free approach for dysphagia risk stratification in HNC survivorship.
Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common malignancy and a leading cause of cancer-related mortality. Current guidelines and staging systems provide coarse categories, but often miss within-stage heterogeneity and the clinical context in electronic medical records (EMRs). We present HCC-STAR (Hepatocellular Carcinoma Staging, Treatment And pRognosis), a clinically aligned large language model that reads routine EMR narratives and jointly outputs risk score-based staging, ranked guideline-consistent treatments with evidence-based rationales, and individualized survival estimates. We curated about 30,000 HCC cases from SEER and expanded them into EMR-style narrative training data using a clinician-validated, prompt-based augmentation workflow. On this corpus, we developed a knowledge-aligned reasoning framework optimized with a step-verifiable composite reward, moving beyond text-level memorization of clinical guidelines. In a multi-center cohort of 6,668 patients from 12 hospitals in China, HCC-STAR achieved state-of-the-art performance in treatment recommendation and risk stratification compared with clinical guidelines and competitive models, including GPT-5 and Gemini-2.5 Pro. Hypothetical overall-survival analysis showed a median survival of 51 months under adherence to HCC-STAR recommendations, compared with 29 and 32 months under BCLC and CNLC. In clinician-centric evaluations, blinded hepatobiliary specialists rated HCC-STAR's reasoning and evidence-based justifications as trustworthy. The model surpassed resident and attending physicians in treatment accuracy and helped physicians make more accurate decisions faster when used as an assistant. These findings support HCC-STAR as a reliable and verifiable decision-support system for risk stratification and precision therapy in HCC.
Risk stratification for pulmonary embolism (PE) is critical for clinical decision-making. Stratification guidelines are based on patient medical records, parameters measured from computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA), and blood tests. However, blood tests are often missing in routine practice. This work studies whether state-of-the-art models can accurately classify risk stratification from only medical records and biomarkers extracted from CTPA images. We benchmark different approaches to combine medical records and cardiac biomarkers with rich pulmonary vascular information; we add vascular biomarkers to tabular models and apply graph neural networks (GNNs) on the vascular tree's intrinsic graph representation. We use a private dataset (n=353) with uniquely complete data for PE risk stratification. Our results show that, among global features, medical records and cardiac biomarkers are the most significant predictors, while vascular biomarkers do not further improve stratification. Even more surprising, even GNNs on vascular graphs fail to outperform strong tabular baseline on global features. We consider hypotheses, on both models and data, that could explain this suboptimal performance. Our investigation suggests that, counter-intuitively, vascular graphs might hold no discriminative information for PE risk stratification. Code is available from https://github.com/creatis-myriad/GENESIS.
Risk stratification for advanced colorectal polyps typically relies on colonoscopy and/or pathology findings. However, there is growing interest in whether non-invasive features available prior to colonoscopy can help identify patients at higher risk. Such approaches may enhance clinical decision-making by prioritizing surveillance for individuals most likely to harbor high-risk polyps, when colonoscopy resources are limited while potentially reducing unnecessary procedures in lower-risk patients. Importantly, the use of non-invasive, pre-procedural information may also help promote more equitable access to risk stratification, particularly in settings where colonoscopy resources are limited or unevenly distributed. We aimed to develop and externally validate machine learning models to predict high-risk colorectal polyps using only non-invasive, pre-colonoscopy demographic, clinical, and behavioral features in a diverse, predominantly African American, urban cohort. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using demographic, lifestyle, and comorbidity data from patients who underwent colonoscopy at Howard University Hospital to develop and validate several machine learning models, including neural networks, random forest, support vector machines (SVM), Naive Bayes, logistic regression, decision trees, k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and XGBoost, for predicting high-risk colorectal polyps. High-risk polyps (HRP) were defined as villous or tubullovillous adenomas, high-grade dysplasia, polyps >= 10 mm in size, and/or the presence of >= 3 polyps per procedure; all other cases were classified as low-risk polyps (LRP). The dataset included 4,681 patients from 2015-2022 used for internal validation and 1,562 patients from 2023-2024 used for external validation.
Survival prediction plays a central role for healthcare providers and clinical researchers. Accurate risk stratification enables early intervention and improved patient management. Most existing deep survival models learn one common feature representation for all patients, which may hide important differences between patient subgroups. In contrast, a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) framework allows different parts of the model to focus on different patient patterns, leading to more individualized representations. Therefore, in this work, we propose a mixture-of-experts enhanced adaptive deep clustering survival framework (AdaCSM) for modeling such heterogeneous survival patterns. We introduce a routing-based expert mechanism that enables conditional specialization within a parametric survival modeling framework. The proposed architecture allocates patients to specialized risk predictors dynamically while preserving the patient survival and subtype clustering objectives. We compare our method with state-of-the-art survival and deep clustering models on multiple real-world longitudinal clinical cohorts spanning diverse disease domains. The proposed method demonstrates improved predictive performance and leads to interpretable results in survival analysis.
Varsha Sharma, Prasanta K. Guha, Avik Ghosecs.LG q-bio.QM
Diabetes is a global health burden, and early detection is critical for timely intervention. This study explores a non-invasive, data-driven framework to identify individuals at risk of diabetes using Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) and lifestyle variables. We use causal inference techniques to estimate the impact of VOCs such as acetone, isopropanol, isoprene, and ethanol on blood glucose levels. Additionally, we designed a classifier to distinguish diabetics from non-diabetics using non-invasive markers. We created a risk-based ranking system for individuals in the "gray zone," and identified natural clusters in the population using Gaussian Mixture Model. Our results suggest that specific VOCs exhibit a strong causal influence on glucose levels and that machine learning models can reliably classify and stratify individuals at high risk. This integrated causal-explainable analysis can support the development of tool for non-invasive early screening of diabetes.