Determinants of Starting Salaries for Filipino Graduates: An Explainable Machine Learning Approach

Filipino graduates face a persistent disconnect between educational preparation and labor market outcomes, where starting salary is a key signal of entry-level valuation. Current Philippine research is dominated by descriptive tracer studies that document employment rates but do not explain the determinants of pay. We address this gap using a crowd-sourced survey dataset of graduate responses whose noisy, self-reported nature makes it a challenging prediction target. Applying machine learning to this problem, we identify job role and industry as the dominant determinants of starting salary, significantly outweighing institutional prestige. The strength of this finding is its central contribution: it is corroborated by three independent lines of evidence, namely SHAP attributions, the heavy reliance of the best ensemble on occupational text, and a Natural Language Inference reformulation. These results suggest that career guidance and policy should prioritize sector-specific skills over institutional brand.

Probabilistic Salary Prediction with Graph Attention Networks and a Mixture Density Network

Accurate salary prediction is critical for bridging the information gap between employers and job seekers in modern labor markets. Existing approaches predominantly yield a single point estimate and treat job attributes such as location, occupation, and industry as independent categorical features, ignoring both the inherent uncertainty and multi-modality of real-world compensation data and the rich hierarchical and semantic-similarity relationships that govern pay norms. In this paper we propose GAT-MDN, a unified framework that addresses both limitations simultaneously. For each of the three attribute domains we construct a domain-specific graph whose edges encode (i) hierarchical parent-child containment and (ii) weighted similarity links derived from a pre-trained Sentence-Transformer. Parallel Graph Attention Networks (GATs) with edge-feature-aware attention learn rich, context-sensitive node representations from these multi-relational graphs. A priority-based hierarchical selection module then assembles a composite feature vector that gracefully handles missing or coarse attributes, and a Mixture Density Network (MDN) head maps this vector to the parameters of a Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM), yielding a full conditional salary distribution. Extensive experiments on a real-world Dutch job-posting dataset of over 1 million records demonstrate that GAT-MDN significantly outperforms a non-graph MLP-MDN baseline in both Negative Log-Likelihood (NLL) and Mean Squared Error (MSE).