The impact of climate variability on food production has led to the creation of various forecasting models that uses machine learning (ML), numerical weather predictors (NWP) or a hybrid of ML-NWP models to identify structural and physical relationships between meteorological drivers and crop growth, in order to predict crop yield. Droughts, for example the 2012 Midwestern US (Corn Belt) drought, are extreme events that affect crop production and test the limits of these forecasting models. Using 16 meteorological drivers as predictors, we compare ML (non-deep learning) and deep learning forecasting models to predict the county-level corn yield for the extreme drought year, 2012. This forecasting problem is characterized by a dissimilarity between the feature distributions of the training and test data, where the meteorological conditions of the extreme drought year fall outside the range of historically observed values. Additionally, the dataset consists of spatial and temporal irregularities where counties with missing yields introduce spatial sparsity and the use of only a subset of daily values per year introduce temporal sparsity. To overcome this, we use sample weighting and feature selection as modifications to improve our forecasting models. These modifications lead to an improvement for ML models; however, the deep learning model VITA shows little to no improvement. While VITA outperforms the ML models with or without modifications, our current study sheds light on the effect of dissimilarity between train and test feature distributions on forecasting models, compares deep learning versus non-deep learning models, and introduces modifications that are effective for non-deep learning models.
The dominance of majority classes in real-world datasets poses a fundamental challenge to randomized neural networks, often biasing decision boundaries and overlooking critical minority samples. Existing remedies, such as synthetic minority over-sampling (SMOTE) and class-weighted loss functions, primarily address class proportions while neglecting intra-class distribution, making them vulnerable to label noise and outliers. In this paper, we propose \textbf{RoBell-RVFL}, a robust and lightweight \emph{quality-aware} generalized bell random vector functional link network that redefines how randomized models handle class imbalance and noisy data. RoBell-RVFL employs a dual-strategy, sample-level weighting mechanism that strictly preserves minority class information using unit weights, while adaptively regulating the influence of majority class samples through a probability-weighted generalized bell (gbell) membership function in a kernel-induced feature space. This design effectively suppresses noisy, boundary, and outlier samples within the majority class, enabling the network to learn from informative samples rather than merely abundant ones. By explicitly incorporating local class probability and class distribution information into the learning process, RoBell-RVFL achieves adaptive control over sample contributions without sacrificing the closed-form learning efficiency of RVFL networks. Extensive evaluations on UCI and KEEL benchmark datasets, along with robustness tests under up to 40\% label noise, demonstrate that RoBell-RVFL consistently and significantly outperforms recent state-of-the-art RVFL variants. The results indicate that adaptive, quality-aware sample weighting is essential for robust RVFL learning, rendering conventional global weighting schemes ineffective in noisy and imbalanced environments.
On-policy distillation (OPD) improves LLM reasoning by training a student model on its own generated outputs, but standard OPD treats all student-generated outputs (SGOs) equally regardless of their informativeness. We observe a consistent asymmetry in controlled filtering experiments: in both OPD and on-policy self distillation (OPSD), training only on incorrect SGOs outperforms training only on correct ones. Our further analysis suggests that models trained on correct-only SGOs tend to generate shorter reasoning traces and show weaker reflection behavior, while incorrect SGOs better preserve exploratory reasoning near the model's capability boundary. To exploit this signal without requiring full answer-containing rollouts, we introduce ReNIO, which Reweights Negative trajectory Importance for LLM On-policy distillation. By using the student-to-teacher probability ratio, ReNIO identifies pivotal tokens leading to wrong reasoning traces and aggregates their information into a normalized sample weight, inherently assigning larger weights to likely negative trajectories without observing the correctness of final-answer. Since Re-NIO only uses prefix-conditioned token probabilities, it preserves OPD's prefix training advantage over full-rollout reinforcement learning. Across both mathematical reasoning and code generation tasks, ReNIO improves both OPD and OPSD, with representative relative gains of up to 8.90% for Qwen3-1.7B and 10.00% for R1-Distill-Qwen-7B on mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Code repo: https://github.com/BDML-lab/ReNIO.